000
FXUS61 KOKX 022246
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
546 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A developing low pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight
heads up into the Great Lakes through Sunday, with a secondary low
developing to the south of the area. Both lows lift north and east
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure returns for Tuesday.
Another wave of low pressure develops off the Middle Atlantic
coast Wednesday, followed by high pressure for Thursday. The
next frontal system may move through the region next Friday or
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated to account for fog development across Long Island early
this evening. An SPS has been issued for locally dense fog
through 8 pm, and may need to be extended in time. A dense fog
advisory may also be needed if the dense fog becomes more
widespread. However, confidence is low with the fog becoming
more widespread overnight, but at least areas of fog,
may occur ahead of the rain early Sunday morning. A negating
factor overnight will be an abundance of middle and high level
clouds. Winds will also shift towards the E and NE and increase
a bit near the coast as the low approaches. Once the rain moves
in any lingering fog should improve.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through around 06z with
rain overspreading the area from south to north through day
break. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s.
A deep SW flow aloft and strengthening low-level easterlies
across the area will result in a decent overrunning rain event
through much of the day on Sunday with rainfall amounts mainly
around 0.75 inches. Temperature highs on Sunday will be in the
upper 40s inland and the lower 50s along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough lifts from the eastern Great Lakes to east of New
England Sunday night with drying conditions and a gusty west flow to
follow. Temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s inland
and low to mid 40s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The forecast reasoning in the extended has not changed over the last
24 hours and the NBM was largely followed for this update.
The highlights for the long term are:
*Mainly dry conditions are forecast through the period.
*Temperatures will start out above normal on Monday before trending
below normal to seasonable levels Tuesday through Friday.
The latest global ensemble means continue to agree on the large
scale pattern for next week. A mean upper trough will remain over
the eastern states Monday through Wednesday. The trough shifts
offshore by Thursday. While it is about a week out, the ensemble
means largely depict a shift towards ridging in the east and
troughing out west by next weekend.
Low pressure will continue lifting northeast of the area on Monday.
Cyclonic flow aloft will likely yield mostly cloudy conditions, but
temperatures will be above normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A
weak cold front/surface trough will also move through the area. High
pressure briefly returns on Tuesday. Another shortwave within the
larger upper trough approaches late Tuesday. The shortwave will help
amplify the trough as it pushes off the Middle Atlantic and
southeast coast on Wednesday. The modeling continues to be in good
agreement that the amplification will be too far east for any
impacts from a low pressure developing off the Middle Atlantic
coast. Have left in a slight chance PoP Tuesday night based on the
model consensus, but any precip would largely be isolated. Colder
temperature profiles would support some brief wet snow with
potentially some rain mixed in over the NYC metro. These PoPs may
need to be trended down in subsequent forecasts and conditions may
stay dry Tuesday night and Wednesday given latest model trends.
The upper trough moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday with
heights rising into next weekend. High pressure returns on Thursday
and may give way to a frontal system at the end of the week/next
Saturday. The associated energy and shortwave passes well to our
north, so have kept the forecast dry for now. The main theme heading
into the end of the week and next weekend will be temperatures
trending back above normal by next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lows from the south slowly approach going into tonight and move
southeast of Long Island Sunday.
Categories vary from VFR to LIFR already within the region. VFR for
most terminals but LIFR for KISP and IFR for KGON. These conditions
for KISP and KGON may very well fluctuate over the next two hours
but tonight through Sunday would expect mainly LIFR to IFR at these
terminals.
Otherwise clouds and fog are expected to redevelop this evening for
the other forecast terminals. Rain returns late overnight into early
Sunday morning. The rain continues through Sunday. VFR conditions
lower to MVFR this evening and IFR for late evening into overnight.
IFR expected to continue through much, if not all, of the remainder
of the TAF period. Occasional sub-IFR will be possible late
tonight into early Sunday for all terminals.
Winds will be 10 kts or less through tonight and then 10-15 kt are
expected Sunday. Gusts up to 20 kt are forecast on Sunday,
especially for coastal terminals. Wind direction variable
going into tonight, and then more E-NE late tonight into Sunday.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of when MVFR and IFR redevelop could be off by 1-3 hours.
LIFR possible at times tonight into early Sunday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: Rain ending. MVFR to IFR improving late.
Monday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming more NW at night.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night.
Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Have issued a marine weather statement for local dense fog with
visibilities to 1 nm or less on the ocean east of Fire Island
Inlet, LI Bays, and eastern LI sound through 10 pm. This may
need to be expanded later tonight. A dense fog advisory may also
be needed.
Otherwise, A strengthening easterly flow late tonight into
Sunday will likely bring SCA conditions to the waters on Sunday
and into Sunday night. Marginal SCA wind gusts are possible on
the ocean on Monday with seas near 5 ft. 5 ft seas may also
occur Monday night. Sub- SCA conditions are largely expected
through Thursday although there could be some marginal SCA wind
gusts on the ocean Wednesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall totals starting late tonight and into Sunday night will
mainly be around 0.75 inches with no hydrologic impacts
expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20/DS
NEAR TERM...20/DS
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...20/DS
HYDROLOGY...20/DS