000
FXUS61 KOKX 032051
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure lifts north tonight as weak high pressure builds in
through Tuesday, eventually giving way to an offshore low pressure
system that develops on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for
Thursday and Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore
Friday into the start of the weekend. A strong frontal system
approaches for next Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A large area of low pressure over the Northeast and Great Lakes
deepens and moves to the north and east overnight. Widespread
rainfall has gradually weakened over the last few hours. As the low
pressure slowly makes its way out of the area tonight, surface
moisture will linger until a westerly wind brings in drier air late
tonight. Ample surface moisture will allow for the continuation of
drizzle and possibly pockets of light rain through the evening and
the first half of the overnight. Additionally, areas of fog will
likely develop this evening and persist until drier air advects into
the area late tonight. Dense fog with visibilities less than 1/4 of
a mile will be possible. Lows will be in the low to middle 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Weak high pressure tries to build into the area from the south but
retreating low pressure is slow to move out. The area remains in the
vicinity of an upper level trough which will likely continue to
bring cloudy skies, despite some clearing Monday morning. While
skies are expected to become overcast Monday afternoon, a lack of
moisture and low level forcing will keep the area dry. Highs on
Monday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, about average for this
time of year.
A northwest wind advects drier and cooler air into the area Monday
night and into early Tuesday morning allowing for skies to generally
clear through the night. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The NYC metro may remain
near 40.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The jet stream going into midweek will be dipping into the Southeast
US. The jet stream pattern shifts thereafter with more NW flow jet
level orientation Thursday with ridging going into Friday. The
ridging continues into Saturday before a more sharp trough and
associated jet streak approach for next Sunday.
A colder airmass will be in place Tuesday through Thursday. The
airmass then moderates and eventually gets to above normal
temperatures to close out the week.
At the surface, the pressure gradient will increase towards midweek.
Low pressure develops well offshore out in the Atlantic with high
pressure from SE Canada through the Great Lakes and near the
Mississippi River Valley.
Models indicate a weak disturbance with some associated moisture
developing in the coastal New England area early Wednesday through
Wednesday evening. In the mid levels, a trough moves across with
associated positive vorticity advection. This may bring some rain
and/or snow showers to parts of Southeast Connecticut and Long
Island. POPs are low, near 30 percent or less with much of these
aforementioned sections in slight chance. Timing of precipitation
will determine any localized light accumulations but with relatively
higher POPs situated towards Southeast Suffolk on the South Fork,
not expecting any snow accumulations with temperatures too warm. The
snow showers could materialize due to wet bulb cooling.
For Thursday through Thursday night, the high pressure area to the
west moves in and weakens across the region. The high pressure area
eventually moves east of the area and out into the Atlantic Friday
into Friday night.
Offshore high pressure Saturday will be followed by a strong frontal
system approaching for next Sunday. GFS very progressive with system
while ECMWF develops a more mature low west of the region.
Dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday with a growing
chance of rain for the latter half of next weekend. With models
indicating more of a frontal system moving across progressively or
deepening west of the area, precip type favors plain rain.
Temperatures overall will be below normal Tuesday through Thursday,
near normal Friday and then getting more above normal Friday night
into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Weak low pressure system slowly approaches from the southwest
through this evening with the primary low reaching the eastern Great
Lakes and a secondary low developing to the south of the area. The
Great Lakes low tracks northward this evening while the offshore low
moves east.
IFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 06Z,
with occasional LIFR conditions possible at times. Improvement
to MVFR is expected tonight then to VFR around or after 06Z
Monday.
Easterly wind mostly around 10 kts with an occasional gust between
20 to 25 kts through late this afternoon will diminish as the lows
move over the region. Winds will then become light tonight and shift
around to a more westerly direction as the low moves north. On
Monday, westerly winds increase late morning into early afternoon to
around 10 kts with possible gust to 15-20 kts. Clouds will also be
on the increase Monday afternoon as another upstream short wave
approaches the region.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments expected with rain and changing flight categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 20Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming more NW at night.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night.
Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the ocean zones, and all
non-ocean waters except the NY Harbor and Western LIS. Gusts upwards
of 25kt should dissipate on the non-ocean waters this evening
allowing the SCA to expire at 23Z. For the ocean zones, winds may
drop off for a bit tonight but then come back up to 25-30 kt gusts
late tonight and into Monday morning. Additionally, waves heights
will be at or just above 5 feet. Winds and waves gradually subside
from east to west on Monday which may allow for the SCA to be
dropped accordingly. Widespread SCA thresholds should largely be
missed with an occasional gust to 25kt not out of the question
for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Any lingering near-SCA gusts are forecast to lower to below SCA
thresholds Tuesday afternoon. Then sub-SCA for all waters for
Tuesday night. Non-ocean waters stay below SCA for Wednesday and
Wednesday night but ocean is forecast to have some SCA level gusts
near 25 kt. Mainly below SCA conditions forecast for all waters
Thursday through Friday. SCA conditions become more probable for
ocean waters Friday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW