000
FXUS61 KOKX 032345
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
645 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts north tonight as weak high pressure builds in
through Tuesday, eventually giving way to an offshore low pressure
system that develops on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for
Thursday and Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore
Friday into the start of the weekend. A strong frontal system
approaches for next Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered areas of light rain and drizzle remain early this
evening, particularly across the eastern half of the CWA. Weak
elevated CAPE was even able to produce a few lightning strikes
in SE CT earlier, though this activity has weakened and pushed
out of the area. Areas of patchy fog may develop over the next
several hours with lingering residual moisture in the low levels
and easterly flow hanging on. A final band of rain moving
through Pennsylvania and Upstate NY may clip the lower Hudson
Valley later this evening before gradual drying out tonight as
the flow turns westerly, especially after midnight. Forecast
remains on track and previous discussion follows.
A large area of low pressure over the Northeast and Great Lakes
deepens and moves to the north and east overnight. Widespread
rainfall has gradually weakened over the last few hours. As the
low pressure slowly makes its way out of the area tonight,
surface moisture will linger until a westerly wind brings in
drier air late tonight. Ample surface moisture will allow for
the continuation of drizzle and possibly pockets of light rain
through the evening and the first half of the overnight.
Additionally, areas of fog will likely develop this evening and
persist until drier air advects into the area late tonight.
Dense fog with visibilities less than 1/4 of a mile will be
possible. Lows will be in the low to middle 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure tries to build into the area from the south but
retreating low pressure is slow to move out. The area remains in the
vicinity of an upper level trough which will likely continue to
bring cloudy skies, despite some clearing Monday morning. While
skies are expected to become overcast Monday afternoon, a lack of
moisture and low level forcing will keep the area dry. Highs on
Monday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, about average for this
time of year.
A northwest wind advects drier and cooler air into the area Monday
night and into early Tuesday morning allowing for skies to generally
clear through the night. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The NYC metro may remain
near 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The jet stream going into midweek will be dipping into the Southeast
US. The jet stream pattern shifts thereafter with more NW flow jet
level orientation Thursday with ridging going into Friday. The
ridging continues into Saturday before a more sharp trough and
associated jet streak approach for next Sunday.
A colder airmass will be in place Tuesday through Thursday. The
airmass then moderates and eventually gets to above normal
temperatures to close out the week.
At the surface, the pressure gradient will increase towards midweek.
Low pressure develops well offshore out in the Atlantic with high
pressure from SE Canada through the Great Lakes and near the
Mississippi River Valley.
Models indicate a weak disturbance with some associated moisture
developing in the coastal New England area early Wednesday through
Wednesday evening. In the mid levels, a trough moves across with
associated positive vorticity advection. This may bring some rain
and/or snow showers to parts of Southeast Connecticut and Long
Island. POPs are low, near 30 percent or less with much of these
aforementioned sections in slight chance. Timing of precipitation
will determine any localized light accumulations but with relatively
higher POPs situated towards Southeast Suffolk on the South Fork,
not expecting any snow accumulations with temperatures too warm. The
snow showers could materialize due to wet bulb cooling.
For Thursday through Thursday night, the high pressure area to the
west moves in and weakens across the region. The high pressure area
eventually moves east of the area and out into the Atlantic Friday
into Friday night.
Offshore high pressure Saturday will be followed by a strong frontal
system approaching for next Sunday. GFS very progressive with system
while ECMWF develops a more mature low west of the region.
Dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday with a growing
chance of rain for the latter half of next weekend. With models
indicating more of a frontal system moving across progressively or
deepening west of the area, precip type favors plain rain.
Temperatures overall will be below normal Tuesday through Thursday,
near normal Friday and then getting more above normal Friday night
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure over the terminals slowly lifts to the northeast
tonight. The low will linger over New England on Monday.
Mainly IFR conditions this evening. There may be some occasional
MVFR across southern CT terminals initially, but IFR is expected to
prevail the first half of the night. There is a chance for some
local LIFR as well. Light rain or drizzle is also possible, but
should taper off from west to east 04 to 07z. Improvement to MVFR is
expected 05z to 08z with VFR returning before day break Monday. VFR
then prevails through Monday evening.
NE winds around 10 kt will diminish through 03z and become light
and/or variable for a brief period before shifting to the west after
05/06z. Wind speeds will increase to 5-10 kt through day break, then
10-15 kt on Monday. Gusts 17-20 kt are possible in the afternoon.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible this evening for ceilings and visibilities.
There is a low chance for LIFR ceilings 01-04z.
Timing of improving conditions may be off by 1-2 hours.
Wind shift to the W may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night: W-WNW gusts 15-20 kt possible early eve. VFR.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night near
the coast.
Thursday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds have lowered below 25 kt on the non ocean waters, and the
Advisory that was in place has been allowed to expire.
Small Craft Advisory continues for the ocean zones through Monday
afternoon. Winds may drop off here for a bit tonight but then
come back up to 25-30 kt gusts late tonight and into Monday
morning. Additionally, waves heights will be at or just above 5
feet. Winds and waves gradually subside from east to west on
Monday which may allow for the SCA to be dropped accordingly.
Widespread SCA thresholds should largely be missed with an
occasional gust to 25kt not out of the question for Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Any lingering near-SCA gusts are forecast to lower to below SCA
thresholds Tuesday afternoon. Then sub-SCA for all waters for
Tuesday night. Non-ocean waters stay below SCA for Wednesday and
Wednesday night but ocean is forecast to have some SCA level gusts
near 25 kt. Mainly below SCA conditions forecast for all waters
Thursday through Friday. SCA conditions become more probable for
ocean waters Friday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...DR/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW