000
FXUS61 KOKX 040408
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1108 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts north tonight as weak high pressure builds in
through Tuesday, eventually giving way to an offshore low pressure
system that develops on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for
Thursday and Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore
Friday into the start of the weekend. A strong frontal system
approaches for next Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Parent low pressure continues to lift across upstate NY with
secondary low pressure southeast of Long Island. A frontal
boundary will move through the region overnight. Ahead of the
boundary, a few showers are possible. Otherwise, areas of light
rain, drizzle, and fog continue. The flow will turn westerly
behind the front which help bring in improving conditions,
especially towards midnight from NYC metro on west. Drier low
level air will improve visibilities and bring an end to any
lingering light rain or drizzle. It will take a few more hours
further east for the improving conditions to be realized. Lows
will be in the low to middle 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure tries to build into the area from the south but
retreating low pressure is slow to move out. The area remains in the
vicinity of an upper level trough which will likely continue to
bring cloudy skies, despite some clearing Monday morning. While
skies are expected to become overcast Monday afternoon, a lack of
moisture and low level forcing will keep the area dry. Highs on
Monday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, about average for this
time of year.
A northwest wind advects drier and cooler air into the area Monday
night and into early Tuesday morning allowing for skies to generally
clear through the night. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The NYC metro may remain
near 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The jet stream going into midweek will be dipping into the Southeast
US. The jet stream pattern shifts thereafter with more NW flow jet
level orientation Thursday with ridging going into Friday. The
ridging continues into Saturday before a more sharp trough and
associated jet streak approach for next Sunday.
A colder airmass will be in place Tuesday through Thursday. The
airmass then moderates and eventually gets to above normal
temperatures to close out the week.
At the surface, the pressure gradient will increase towards midweek.
Low pressure develops well offshore out in the Atlantic with high
pressure from SE Canada through the Great Lakes and near the
Mississippi River Valley.
Models indicate a weak disturbance with some associated moisture
developing in the coastal New England area early Wednesday through
Wednesday evening. In the mid levels, a trough moves across with
associated positive vorticity advection. This may bring some rain
and/or snow showers to parts of Southeast Connecticut and Long
Island. POPs are low, near 30 percent or less with much of these
aforementioned sections in slight chance. Timing of precipitation
will determine any localized light accumulations but with relatively
higher POPs situated towards Southeast Suffolk on the South Fork,
not expecting any snow accumulations with temperatures too warm. The
snow showers could materialize due to wet bulb cooling.
For Thursday through Thursday night, the high pressure area to the
west moves in and weakens across the region. The high pressure area
eventually moves east of the area and out into the Atlantic Friday
into Friday night.
Offshore high pressure Saturday will be followed by a strong frontal
system approaching for next Sunday. GFS very progressive with system
while ECMWF develops a more mature low west of the region.
Dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday with a growing
chance of rain for the latter half of next weekend. With models
indicating more of a frontal system moving across progressively or
deepening west of the area, precip type favors plain rain.
Temperatures overall will be below normal Tuesday through Thursday,
near normal Friday and then getting more above normal Friday night
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
One low pressure slowly lifts to the northeast tonight as a
weaker low moves offshore. Low pressure lingers over New England
on Monday.
Mainly IFR conditions will begin improving to MVFR towards
04-06z from NYC terminals on west. Further east, IFR likely
continues until 07-9z with improvements thereafter. Lingering
light rain will end from west to east through 06z. VFR
conditions are expected to return before sunrise Monday.
VFR then prevails through Monday evening.
Light NNW-NE winds briefly become light and/or variable for a
brief period before shifting to the west after 05/06z. Wind
speeds will increase to 5-10 kt through day break, then 10-15 kt
on Monday. Gusts 17-20 kt are possible in the afternoon.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improving conditions may be off by 1-2 hours.
Wind shift to the W may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night: W-WNW gusts 15-20 kt possible early eve. VFR.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night near
the coast.
Thursday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory continues for the ocean zones through
Monday afternoon. Winds may drop off here for a bit initially,
but then come back up to 25-30 kt gusts late tonight and into
Monday morning. Additionally, waves heights will be at or just
above 5 feet. Winds and waves gradually subside from east to
west on Monday which may allow for the SCA to be dropped
accordingly. Widespread SCA thresholds should largely be missed
with an occasional gust to 25kt not out of the question for
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Any lingering near-SCA gusts are forecast to lower to below SCA
thresholds Tuesday afternoon. Then sub-SCA for all waters for
Tuesday night. Non-ocean waters stay below SCA for Wednesday and
Wednesday night but ocean is forecast to have some SCA level gusts
near 25 kt. Mainly below SCA conditions forecast for all waters
Thursday through Friday. SCA conditions become more probable for
ocean waters Friday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW