000
FXUS61 KOKX 041756
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1256 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure across Northern New England today will
gradually weaken and push offshore by this evening. Weak high
pressure will then build in tonight through Tuesday, eventually
dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the
area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday and
Thursday night. This high moves offshore Friday into the start of
the weekend. A strong frontal system approaches on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast continues to remain on track with only minor
adjustments to the temperature and dew point to reflect the most
recent observations. High temperatures were increased slightly.
Weakening low pressure across northern New England today works
offshore by early this evening. This will keep the area under a
westerly flow, which will gust up to 20 mph at times. Multiple
shortwaves in the polar branch of the jet will work off the Mid
Atlantic coast in coming days. The first passes to the south
later this afternoon into tonight. While there will not be much
impact from this system, associated upper jet energy will allow
for an increase in mid and high clouds into this afternoon with
skies becoming mostly cloudy. A dry subcloud layer should
inhibit any precipitation, but perhaps a sprinkle. Highs will
top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s, which is few degrees
above normal.
For tonight, skies will clear in the evening with continued weak
cold advection behind the departing shortwave trough. Winds will
stay up enough to limit strong radiational cooling, with lows
generally in the 30s, right around normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday with a
diminishing NW flow and highs a few degrees below normal in the
40s. An amplifying shortwave trough across the Great Lakes and
Midwest on Tuesday tracks toward the eastern seaboard Tuesday
night and offshore on Wednesday. Once again, jet energy
associated with the trough will send some mid and high level
clouds back into the area Tuesday, persisting through much of
the period. Offshore low development takes place off the Mid
Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Wednesday, staying well south
and east of the forecast area. Guidance is depicting some light
precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday along the New England
coast in a strengthening northerly flow. This is likely in
response to much colder air working across the warmer marine
waters. It`s possible that far eastern areas like SE CT and
eastern LI see a few rain and/or snow showers, but thinking is
this likely stays to the south and east. The bigger issue will
be much colder air arriving into the region with lows Tuesday
night generally at or below freezing except for the NYC metro,
with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. This is
about 5 to 8 degrees below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A low develops off of the Carolina coast on Wednesday, by Wednesday
night it strengthens as it tracks east, out to sea. The increasing
pressure gradient to the south may lead to stronger winds for
southern portions of the CWA Wednesday night, decreasing into
Thursday as the low treks farther away.
Surface high pressure builds in from the southwest on Thursday with
a ridge aloft moving in from the west. This will help usher in
warmer air in low-levels with gradual warm air advection each
day into the start of the weekend. On Thursday, we will be in
the left exit region of a jet streak to our northwest then
transitions to the right entrance region of this jet streak as
it passes to our east on Friday. This increase in synoptic lift
along with periods of increased moisture in the low levels and
warm air advection will likely mean partly cloudy skies prevail
through Saturday, despite the building high pressure. Warm air
advection will help lift temperatures back to above average by
Friday/Saturday with highs in the upper-40s/low-50s on Friday
and in the low/mid-50s on Saturday.
A textbook Colorado low will develop over the Central Plains Friday
into Saturday before growing in size as it tracks Northeast. This
low will pass through the eastern Great Lakes with a strong cold
front along with it approaching from the west. This cold frontal
passage is expected late Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, you
can expect SW winds on Saturday to shift south on Sunday and
increase ahead of the front. This will also increase high
temperatures for Sunday, expected to be in the mid-50s. A line
of rain will pass along with the front late on Sunday with no
wintry precip currently expected due to the strong prefrontal
warming. Sunday night, after the frontal passage, some lingering
light precip is possible as temperatures begin to cool.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly builds in through tonight
VFR. West winds 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt or less, veering
NW tonight.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Moderate to high confidence that TAF sites will stay VFR, but
still a chance of TEMPO MVFR cigs until 23z-00z. Gusts at
KEWR/KLGA/KJFK may be only occasional through tonight, and might
not occur at all from approx 22z-03z. Occasional gusts 15-19kt
possible for KTEB through tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. NNW gusts near 20kt afternoon into
night, mainly coastal terminals.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA conditions develop in a strengthening westerly flow on the
ocean waters. Generally looking at marginal conditions through
tonight with G20-25kt and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, gusts
will be closer to 20kt. High pressure builds in Tuesday with
decreasing winds and seas. Low pressure development well south
and east of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday will
result in a strengthening northerly flow with the potential for
marginal SCA conditions developing Wednesday afternoon/night.
Mainly below SCA conditions forecast for all waters Thursday
through Friday. SCA conditions become more probable for ocean
waters Friday night with 5 foot waves currently forecasted on
the the eastern ocean zones.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW