000
FXUS61 KOKX 042304
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
604 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday,
eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and
east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday
before slowly moving offshore Friday. The high will remain just
offshore on Saturday ahead of a strong frontal system Sunday
into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Only minor adjustments were made for the current conditions. No
significant changes with this update.
Skies have become mostly cloudy to overcast with the approach
of a mid-level shortwave embedded in a trough. This shortwave
will continue its eastward progression into tonight. While the
lower atmosphere remains fairly dry, a few sprinkles or light
rain showers can`t be completely ruled out into the early
evening, especially for northwestern areas. Behind the departing
shortwave tonight, winds become more NW which allows for
continued cold air advection to bring in drier and cooler air.
Skies should become clearer overnight with subsidence behind the
departing shortwave as temperatures fall into the low 30s for
much of the area. The NYC metro may only drop into the upper
30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday with
dry and cooler conditions expected as weak ridging occurs in the mid-
levels. A NW wind continues to advect cooler air into the area and
despite partly cloudy skies in the morning, high temperatures are
only forecast to rise into the low to possibly middle 40s.
Another trough approaches the area with an embedded shortwave
digging toward the East Coast by Tuesday afternoon and evening. This
will result in increasingly cloudy skies once again during Tuesday
afternoon and evening. This shortwave will result in cyclogenesis
well to the south of the area off the Carolina Coastline. Other than
the potential of a stray snow or rain shower after midnight on
Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning for the immediate coast,
this low should be fairly inconsequential for our area. Lows on
Tuesday night will drop into the middle to upper 20s for most
outlying areas. The NYC metro will see lows in the low to middle
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There has not been too much change with the forecast reasoning in
the extended with this update. The global ensemble means are in good
agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern through the period
with a upper trough along the east coast to start transitioning to
ridging the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend.
Low pressure will develop off the Middle Atlantic coast on
Wednesday. The upper trough axis associated with the low will hang
back and not fully move east of the area until late Wednesday.
Northerly flow around the low may bring in just enough lower level
moisture to support a 20 percent PoP for a brief snow or rain shower
across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Deeper
moisture and more organized lift will reside south and east of the
area on Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected
through much of the day until the upper trough slides to the east.
Highs will be in the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s closer to the
coast. These temperatures are about 5 degrees below normal for this
time of year.
A surface ridge axis builds over the northeast Wednesday night into
Thursday. Wednesday night will likely be the coldest night of the
extended with lows in the 20s for much of the region. The surface
ridge axis over the area on Thursday will help keep temperatures
below normal in the upper 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast.
High pressure associated with the surface ridge axis begins to shift
offshore on Friday and will remain in place to start next weekend.
The shift in the large scale pattern to ridging along the east coast
and troughing west will bring a trend towards above normal
temperatures Friday into Saturday. Highs by Saturday will be in the
lower to middle 50s.
Forecast uncertainty increases for Sunday into early next week.
There is a good signal for a strong frontal system to swing across
the eastern states sometime Sunday into Monday. There is a fair
amount of spread with the specific details such as timing and
intensity. Any precipitation with this system will be plain rain
given the larger scale pattern and parent low passing well to our
north and west. There may be a period of strong winds both ahead and
behind the system as well. However, it is much too early to be
specific with wind speeds. The system could bring a brief period of
heavy showers, possibly even some thunder. It should be noted that
some of the reliable deterministic models have the system moving
through late Sunday night into Monday, about a week out. These
details will likely not be ironed out until the middle to late this
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Surface high pressure slowly builds in tonight through Tuesday.
VFR.
West winds 10-15kt, at the metro terminals, and less than 10kt
at the outlying terminals, tonight, with gusts up to 19kt,
veering NW this evening. Gusts may be more occasional tonight.
Winds continue to veer to the NW then N during Tuesday.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK may be only occasional through tonight, and
might not occur at all from 00Z-03Z. Occasional gusts 15-19kt
possible for KTEB through tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. NNW gusts near 20kt afternoon into
night, mainly coastal terminals.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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No changes to winds and seas at this time.
Small craft advisory conditions continue on the ocean zones
through much of the overnight period with W to NW winds gusting
to near 25kt and seas around 5 feet. While the non-ocean waters
will be largely sub-SCA tonight, an occasional gust to near 25kt
will remain possible. Winds and seas look to subside below SCA
thresholds by 10Z Tuesday with sub-SCA everywhere through at
least Wednesday morning.
Offshore low pressure on Wednesday may bring wind gusts close to 20
kt on the ocean. Otherwise, high pressure builds over the waters
through Thursday which will yield conditions below SCA levels. The
high will remain in control Friday into Saturday with the
continuation of sub-SCA conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW