000
FXUS61 KOKX 050224
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
924 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday,
eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and
east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday
before slowly moving offshore Friday. The high will remain just
offshore on Saturday ahead of a strong frontal system Sunday
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes with this update. Temperatures across the
Long Island Pine Barrens have fallen lower than the hourly
forecast and updated mainly for that region. Clouds, especially
at the higher levels, were clearing as the upper trough moves
through the region, as seen on the nighttime satellite loop.
This shortwave will continue its eastward progression into
tonight. Behind the departing shortwave tonight, winds become
more NW which allows for continued cold air advection to bring
in drier and cooler air. Skies should become clearer overnight
with subsidence behind the departing shortwave as temperatures
fall into the low 30s for much of the area. The NYC metro may
only drop into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday with
dry and cooler conditions expected as weak ridging occurs in the mid-
levels. A NW wind continues to advect cooler air into the area and
despite partly cloudy skies in the morning, high temperatures are
only forecast to rise into the low to possibly middle 40s.
Another trough approaches the area with an embedded shortwave
digging toward the East Coast by Tuesday afternoon and evening. This
will result in increasingly cloudy skies once again during Tuesday
afternoon and evening. This shortwave will result in cyclogenesis
well to the south of the area off the Carolina Coastline. Other than
the potential of a stray snow or rain shower after midnight on
Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning for the immediate coast,
this low should be fairly inconsequential for our area. Lows on
Tuesday night will drop into the middle to upper 20s for most
outlying areas. The NYC metro will see lows in the low to middle
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
There has not been too much change with the forecast reasoning
in the extended with this update. The global ensemble means are
in good agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern through
the period with a upper trough along the east coast to start
transitioning to ridging the end of the week into the beginning
of the weekend.
Low pressure will develop off the Middle Atlantic coast on
Wednesday. The upper trough axis associated with the low will
hang back and not fully move east of the area until late
Wednesday. Northerly flow around the low may bring in just
enough lower level moisture to support a 20 percent PoP for a
brief snow or rain shower across eastern Long Island and
southeast Connecticut. Deeper moisture and more organized lift
will reside south and east of the area on Wednesday. Otherwise,
mostly cloudy skies are expected through much of the day until
the upper trough slides to the east. Highs will be in the upper
30s inland to the lower 40s closer to the coast. These
temperatures are about 5 degrees below normal for this time of
year.
A surface ridge axis builds over the northeast Wednesday night
into Thursday. Wednesday night will likely be the coldest night
of the extended with lows in the 20s for much of the region. The
surface ridge axis over the area on Thursday will help keep
temperatures below normal in the upper 30s inland and lower 40s
near the coast. High pressure associated with the surface ridge
axis begins to shift offshore on Friday and will remain in place
to start next weekend. The shift in the large scale pattern to
ridging along the east coast and troughing west will bring a
trend towards above normal temperatures Friday into Saturday.
Highs by Saturday will be in the lower to middle 50s.
Forecast uncertainty increases for Sunday into early next week.
There is a good signal for a strong frontal system to swing
across the eastern states sometime Sunday into Monday. There is
a fair amount of spread with the specific details such as timing
and intensity. Any precipitation with this system will be plain
rain given the larger scale pattern and parent low passing well
to our north and west. There may be a period of strong winds
both ahead and behind the system as well. However, it is much
too early to be specific with wind speeds. The system could
bring a brief period of heavy showers, possibly even some
thunder. It should be noted that some of the reliable
deterministic models have the system moving through late Sunday
night into Monday, about a week out. These details will likely
not be ironed out until the middle to late this week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure slowly builds in tonight through Tuesday.
VFR.
West winds 10-15kt, at the metro terminals, and less than 10kt
at the outlying terminals. Any gusts that occur overnight into
early Tuesday morning will be more occasional, and up to around
19kt if gusts do occur. Winds veer more to NW late evening into
the overnight. Winds continue to veer to the NW then N during
Tuesday.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
If any gusts occur overnight into early Tuesday morning the
gusts will be more occasional.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. NNW gusts near 20kt afternoon into
night, mainly coastal terminals.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor adjustments were made to increase gusts over the
ocean waters.
Small craft advisory conditions continue on the ocean zones
through much of the overnight period with W to NW winds gusting
to near 25kt and seas around 5 feet. While the non-ocean waters
will be largely sub-SCA tonight, an occasional gust to near 25kt
will remain possible. Winds and seas look to subside below SCA
thresholds by 10Z Tuesday with sub-SCA everywhere through at
least Wednesday morning.
Offshore low pressure on Wednesday may bring wind gusts close to 20
kt on the ocean. Otherwise, high pressure builds over the waters
through Thursday which will yield conditions below SCA levels. The
high will remain in control Friday into Saturday with the
continuation of sub-SCA conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW