000
FXUS61 KOKX 062035
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure noses in from the south and west tonight. High
pressure remains in control, centered to our south, Thursday through
Thursday night as a low approaches and weakens from the north and
west. High pressure will be in control Friday and Saturday. A
strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through during
Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains
in control through the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Showers continue across much of the area as an upper level
trough passes overhead. Snow is being observed as far south as
southern Long Island as have adjusted forecast to capture
current weather types. Anything else that falls this evening
should be a snow or a rain/snow mix. Surface temperatures are
all above freezing, so any accumulation more than a quick
dusting is not expected.

As the trough pulls away and heights start to rise tonight the area
will dry out. The pressure gradient briefly tightens over the
area through early tonight as low pressure well offshore
strengthens and high pressure noses in from the south and west.
Although skies become mostly clear tonight, winds stay up enough
to lower the effectiveness of radiational cooling. However, in
this cold airmass lows will still be able to get down to the low
20s to low 30s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure shifts offshore to our south Thursday, but remains in
control. At the same time, a weakening low approaches from our north
and west. Aloft, heights briefly lower Thursday afternoon with
another shortwave moving through. By Friday night an upper
level ridge starts building into the area.

In terms of weather, a mostly dry short term period is expected,
with just a slight chance of light snow showers across the western
half of the area on Thursday. High temperatures will be similar
to Wednesday (upper 30s to lower 40s), but lows will be a bit
higher (mid 20s to mid 30s) as the flow becomes southwesterly
with the high moving farther to our south and east.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Ridging aloft occurs on Friday and Saturday with surface high
pressure in control, keeping us dry. Associated subsidence will
limit the boundary layer depth both days and hamper tapping into the
unseasonably mild air aloft. Still, highs on Friday near or slightly
above normal, then above normal in the 50s on Saturday.

Global models seem to be converging on the evolution and timing of
the next storm system to impact the area. Low pressure shifts NE
across Quebec on Sunday. At the same time, a 500mb trough digs
toward the Ohio Valley, then becomes negatively tilted Sunday night.
This will help develop a secondary low, which may develop near us,
but wouldn`t deepen more rapidly until it reaches New England or SE
Canada. In any case, an anomalously moist airmass and strong low
level jet push in ahead of a cold front that will most likely pass
through during the overnight hours of Sunday night.

Rain becomes likely in most spots Sunday afternoon, continues into
Sunday night, and could possibly be over by daybreak for the western
half of the forecast area. Models show a little elevated
instability, but would like to see more consistency before adding
thunder into the forecast. Regardless, rain could be heavy at times
due to the high moisture content and lift from the llj and a jet
streak aloft. Regarding winds, 925mb winds are estimated to reach 60-
80kt over roughly the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday
night. Even if a relatively stronger low level inversion were to be
in place during the time that the llj moves through, about half of
that speed could potentially reach the surface. NBM shows a greater
than 50% chance of at least advisory-criteria gusts (46+ mph) for
the coastal areas and even at some inland spots. For now, the
forecast has gusts 40-50mph for coastal areas and 30-40mph for most
inland areas during Sunday night.

High pressure then builds in through the rest of Monday and remains
in control through Wednesday with an extended period of dry weather
and near normal temperatures.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pres builds towards the area tngt, and sets up south of the
region on Thu.

Mainly VFR into this eve although CIGs around 3500 ft. MVFR at SWF
with lower CIGs. Some flurries/sprinkles can be expected, but VIS
generally expected to remain VFR.

VFR tngt, then CIGS around 3000 ft develop during the day on Thu.
Some light rain and/or snow is possible.

NW winds gusting up to 20kt this eve, then gradually decreasing
overnight. Winds backing to the W thru Thu, but speeds mainly blw 12
kt.


 ...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible if -SHRA/-SHSN look to produce MVFR or lower.
Gusts may only be ocnl thru this eve.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Rest of Thursday: Mainly MVFR. Slight chance of -RA/-SN.
Winds becoming wly by 00Z Fri.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: IFR with RA. S winds gusting to around 40 kt. LLWS likely.

Monday: VFR with NW winds 15-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters until 4 AM.
This is a marginal SCA, with wind gusts largely in the lower 20 kts,
but potential for 25 kt gusts to be more than occasional. High
pressure noses in from the south and west tonight and eventually the
pressure gradient relaxes. Sub-SCA conditions then expected through
Saturday night.

Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft
conditions quickly going to gales in all likelihood by late in the
day/early evening. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday
night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning for most of
the waters. Ocean seas are likely build to 10-15 feet during this
time with waves over 5 ft across portions of eastern Long Island
Sound.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues expected through Saturday night.

1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning. It appears that the heaviest rainfall is most likely
to occur during Sunday night. Minor flooding will be possible,
mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot
completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower
confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance
and the progressive nature of the storm system.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT