000
FXUS61 KOKX 111144
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
644 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push east of the region today as a
deepening low pressure along moves into Canada by this evening. High
pressure will then build from the southwest on Monday night into
Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and pass through late
Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then
build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the New
England coast Saturday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is on track with just minor adjustments.
A strong cold front has pushed east of the forecast area this
morning. Rainfall rates behind the front remain rather low,
around a tenth of an inch per hour.
As a result, the flood threat for much of the CWA has come to an
end and most of the flood watch has been cancelled. The only
exception is across portions of CT where the flood watch remains
in effect for the potential for river flooding. River rises in
CT can be expected, especially on the Yantic, where a flood
warning is in effect.
The high wind warning and wind advisory headlines have been
cancelled with the strongest winds moving east of the CWA.
Temperatures are falling behind the front. OKX observed a 7 degree
drop in temperatures in about 10 minutes as the front moved through.
Across NW zones, particularly Orange County, where temperatures have
already fallen into the middle and upper 30s, look for the precip to
end as a brief period of snow. With surface temps likely still being
above freezing any snow will have difficulty sticking, with perhaps
a coating or so on the grassy surfaces.
The precipitation will gradually taper off this morning, with any
lingering showers moving away to the northeast.
Skies are expected to start clearing from SW to NE form late morning
through the afternoon. The pressure gradient will remain rather
tight today, as the departing low continues to deepen and high
pressure starts to arrive. Gusts of 35 to 40 mph appear to be a good
bet for the mid to late morning as cold advection is maximized as
the upper trough axis pivots through. Late in the day and into the
evening the pressure gradient begins to decrease somewhat. It will
be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler with 40s across the area into the
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds from the southwest tonight. Winds will
gradually decrease with gusts still around 20 to 25 mph at
times during the evening. After midnight, expect clear skies
any gusts ending. This will allow temperatures to fall to
seasonably cold levels. Temperatures should get below freezing
in most places with lows in the middle and upper 20s in the more
rural area, to mainly lower 30s across the city and urban
locations.
s
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft in the wake of one departing trough on Tue
will give way to another northern stream trough on Wednesday, which
should drive a cold front through either late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. Confluent mid level flow after this trough
passage, followed by ridging aloft Fri, will then maintain strong
sfc high pressure over the area, with perhaps a weak intervening
cold frontal passage Friday night. Guidance has been trending
towards hanging on to high pressure over the area through the
weekend. As high pressure shifts east is where model spread starts
to really increase. There is potential for another low pressure
system to impact the area late Sunday, but large differences remain
in timing, strength and location.
Forecast follows the NBM for the most part given close enough NWP
model guidance agreement during this time frame, with only minor
adjustments. Fair wx should prevail through the period, with only
slight chance to chance PoP for next Sunday. Near normal temps Tue-
Wed, and a little below normal Wed night-Thu after the cold frontal
passage, should moderate to a few degrees above normal Fri-Sat via
ridging sfc and aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The terminals remain in the wake of a cold front that continues
to push east with strengthening low pressure tracking into the
Canadian maritimes during the day.
Most terminals are now VFR with -RA. Brief instances of MVFR and
isolated IFR remain possible through the morning as rain continues
to push through. KSWF is expected to mix with -SN before
precipitation comes to an end with little to no accumulation.
Conditions continue to improve late morning with all terminals
VFR by early afternoon.
N/NW wind 10-20G20-30kt this morning with some gusts upwards of 35
kt possible, especially along the coast. A lull in gusts this
morning is expected with gusts expected to pick back up 12-15Z.
Winds expected to remain strong with gusts upwards of 35kt
lingering into the afternoon. Winds and gusts will gradually
subside this evening into the overnight as they shift more W.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional this morning before picking up
again by 15Z. MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible with -RA
likely for AM push. VFR with winds and gusts gradually subsiding
for the evening push.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR. W to NW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The strongest winds have moved east of the region, so have dropped
the storm warnings and converted them to gales. Expect gales on all
waters through much, with small craft conditions likely into at
least the first of Monday night.
Sub small craft conditions may prevail for a good portion of Tuesday
across the waters in all likelihood, with small craft conditions
returning through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile W flow
gusting up to 25 kt on all waters Tue night, should shift NW by Wed
morning after a cold frontal passage. Gusts could peak at 30 kt on
the ocean Wed night. Lingering 25 kt gusts are possible, especially
on the eastern ocean and the open Sound waters into daytime
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
3 to 4", locally 5" have fallen across central LI and S Central CT.
Urban and poor drainage flooding impacts have generally been minor
overnight.
Across S CT, several quick responding rivers are rising, with the
Quinnipiac at Wallingford approaching minor flood stage. Meanwhile
several points along large stem rivers like the Housatonic and
Connecticut River are forecast to reach minor flood stage over the
next 24 hours, with the Yantic River at Yantic forecast to reach
Moderate flood stage.
An additional 1" or so likely for SE CT and twin forks through 12z,
with a limited urban and poor drainage flood threat.
Across NYC, NE NJ, and Lower Hud, between 1 and 2" of rain have
fallen, with less than 1/2" of additional rain expected. The threat
for flooding has come to an end. Several flashy small stream rivers
continue to slowly rise, but are expected to stay below minor flood
thresholds.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this morning high
tide cycle for the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT
and the twin Forks of LI. Winds shift to the W-NW this morning will
limit magnitude of surge and additive wave impacts during the times
of high tide Mon AM.
There is typically erratic surge behavior (double peak) with strong
S/SE flow events followed by a strong windshift. For that reason,
forecast has been heavily leaned to Stevens NYHOPS 95th percentile
numbers, and adjusted upward for wave runup on south facing
coastlines. This should capture the potential for localized minor
flooding along the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT
and the twin Forks of LI this morning.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ006>008-
010>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...