000
FXUS61 KOKX 111746
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1246 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front pushes east of the region today as deepening low
pressure tracks into Canada. High pressure builds in from the
southwest into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night
and passes through early Wednesday. Another strong high will
then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off
the New England coast Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
At 1730Z, conditions have quickly dried out as a deepening 992
mb low continues to pull into SE Canada and exit the local
region. Only a couple remaining obs at this point of lingering
sprinkles, and this will end everywhere as we move into early
afternoon. While the threat for flooding has mostly ended, the
only exception is across portions of SE CT where a flood warning
remains in effect for river flooding along the Yantic.
Skies clear from SW to NE through the afternoon. The pressure
gradient remains rather tight today as the departing low
deepens and high pressure begins to build in. This allows for a
blustery rest of the day with NW flow occasionally gusting 30
to 35 mph as the upper trough axis pivots through. Late in the
day and into the evening the pressure gradient begins to
decrease somewhat and winds lighten. It will be a good 10 to 15
degrees cooler than Sunday with 40s across the area into the
afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds from the southwest tonight. Winds will
gradually decrease with gusts still around 20 to 25 mph at
times during the evening. After midnight, expect clear skies
any gusts ending. This will allow temperatures to fall to
seasonably cold levels. Temperatures should get below freezing
in most places with lows in the middle and upper 20s in the more
rural area, to mainly lower 30s across the city and urban
locations.
s
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft in the wake of one departing trough on Tue
will give way to another northern stream trough on Wednesday, which
should drive a cold front through either late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. Confluent mid level flow after this trough
passage, followed by ridging aloft Fri, will then maintain strong
sfc high pressure over the area, with perhaps a weak intervening
cold frontal passage Friday night. Guidance has been trending
towards hanging on to high pressure over the area through the
weekend. As high pressure shifts east is where model spread starts
to really increase. There is potential for another low pressure
system to impact the area late Sunday, but large differences remain
in timing, strength and location.
Forecast follows the NBM for the most part given close enough NWP
model guidance agreement during this time frame, with only minor
adjustments. Fair wx should prevail through the period, with only
slight chance to chance PoP for next Sunday. Near normal temps Tue-
Wed, and a little below normal Wed night-Thu after the cold frontal
passage, should moderate to a few degrees above normal Fri-Sat via
ridging sfc and aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in during the TAF period.
VFR. WNW winds gusting mostly 25-30kt, diminishing towards
sunset. Gusts 20-25kt early this evening before dropping off by
around 02-04z for most terminals. Winds shift W late tonight,
then SW around 10kt Tuesday afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20kt
possible in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional peak gusts of 31-35kt possible this afternoon.
Winds are expected to average around 310 magnetic through the entire
day, however, moderate confidence that winds will tend to favor
south/left of 310 magnetic. KEWR is most likely prevail south of 310
magnetic.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20kt possible in the afternoon.
Wednesday: NW gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The strongest winds have moved east of the region, so have dropped
the storm warnings and converted them to gales. Expect gales on all
waters through much of the day, with small craft conditions
likely into at least the first part of tonight.
Sub small craft conditions may prevail for a good portion of Tuesday
across the waters in all likelihood, with small craft conditions
returning through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile W flow
gusting up to 25 kt on all waters Tue night, should shift NW by Wed
morning after a cold frontal passage. Gusts could peak at 30 kt on
the ocean Wed night. Lingering 25 kt gusts are possible, especially
on the eastern ocean and the open Sound waters into daytime
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
3 to 4", locally 5" have fallen across central LI and S Central CT.
Urban and poor drainage flooding impacts have generally been minor
overnight. With precipitation largely tapered as of 1430Z, the
threat for flooding is waning. The exceptions are along a couple
rivers in SE CT, where the Yantic is in moderate, and the
Quinnipiac at Wallingford is expected to rise into minor later
today.
Across NYC, NE NJ, and Lower Hud, between 1 and 2" of rain have
fallen, with less than 1/2" of additional rain expected. The threat
for flooding has come to an end. Several flashy small stream rivers
continue to slowly rise, but are expected to stay below minor flood
thresholds.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this morning high
tide cycle for the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT
and the twin Forks of LI. Winds shift to the W-NW this morning will
limit magnitude of surge and additive wave impacts during the times
of high tide Mon AM.
There is typically erratic surge behavior (double peak) with strong
S/SE flow events followed by a strong windshift. For that reason,
forecast has been heavily leaned to Stevens NYHOPS 95th percentile
numbers, and adjusted upward for wave runup on south facing
coastlines. This should capture the potential for localized minor
flooding along the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT
and the twin Forks of LI this morning.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR/JT
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...