000
FXUS61 KOKX 112116
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
416 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build from the southwest through Tuesday. A
cold front will approach late Tuesday night and pass through
early Wednesday, followed by strong high pressure building
from the west from later Wednesday into Friday. The high will
weaken on Friday, allowing a weak cold front to pass through
from the north early Saturday, with strong high pressure
returning for the weekend. Unsettled weather may make a return
on Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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In the wake of deepening low pressure that has pulled north into
SE Canada, high pressure begins to build in from the south and
west, bringing drier, calmer conditions to the region.

The pressure gradient remains rather tight as the departing low
deepens and high pressure begins to build in. This allows for a
blustery rest of the day with NW flow occasionally gusting 30 to
35 mph as the upper trough axis pivots through. Late in the day
and into the evening the pressure gradient begins to decrease
somewhat and winds lighten. Winds gradually decrease this
evening. After midnight, expect clear skies, allowing
temperatures to fall back nicely overnight, with lows largely
below freezing across the region.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A much quieter regime sets up for the bulk of the remainder of
the week as high pressure largely dominates.

Brief zonal flow aloft in the wake of the departing trough on
Tuesday will give way to another northern stream trough, which
will sends a dry cold front through the area early Wednesday
morning. Ahead of it, a rather tranquil day is on tap. With
little moisture in the column, more sun than clouds can be
expected as afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s, or just a
couple of degrees below normal for the time of year. The relaxed
pressure gradient will allow much lighter winds than on Monday,
with a modest SW flow prevailing. Temperatures overnight fall
back into the 20s across the interior, and the 30s along the
coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A deep longwave upper trough swinging across ern Canada will
send a cold front through early Wed. CAA in its wake should
maintain temps a few degrees below normal into Thu night as
strong high pressure builds across.

After the upper trough passes, building heights aloft will lead
to a quick warming trend for Fri into early next week. A weak,
dry frontal boundary may sink through from the N early Sat,
accompanied by a band of low to mid level clouds at most but no
appreciable change in temps for the weekend, which should remain
dry as another strong sfc high builds across.

Evolution of a low pressure system to the south early next week
is very uncertain per divergent model solutions, with the
ECMWF keeping the low suppressed well to the south via a more
amplified nrn stream trough while the GFS brings the sys slowly
up the coastal plain. Model guidance during that time at least
has better agreement on a moistening low level maritime flow
bringing clouds into the area Sunday night-Mon, also low chance
PoP mainly for Long Island and SE CT.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds in during the TAF period.

VFR. Brief MVFR cigs possible at KSWF and KHPN into early
evening. WNW winds gusting mostly 25-30 kt, diminishing early
this evening to mostly 20-25 kt. Frequent gusts then drop off by
midnight. Winds shift W late tonight, then become SW around 10
kt with possible occasional gusts to 20 kt Tue afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional peak gusts of 31-35kt possible through 22Z-00Z.

Winds are expected to average around 310 magnetic through this
evening, however, medium confidence that winds will tend to
favor north/right of 310 magnetic through 03Z-05Z, then
south/left of it thereafter for all but KEWR, which should more
likely prevail south of 310 magnetic.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt possible in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Extended the Gale Warning on all waters until 00Z Tue with
35-40 kt gusts still being observed as as departing low
pressure deepens. Diminishing winds this evening should bring an
end to the gales on all waters, with SCA cond likely persisting
into at least the first part of tonight. Hazardous ocean seas
should continue into Tue-Tue night, with WSW flow gusting up
to 25 kt on the ocean Tue night.

SCA cond on the ocean and perhaps on some of the near shore
waters surrounding Long Island on Wed, with W flow gusting up
to 25-30 kt and ocean seas 5-6 ft, should expand to all waters
late day Wed into Wed night as winds shift NW and cold air
advection increases. These conditions should last into Thu AM on
the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays.

As strong high pressure building in from the west weakens Thu
night-Fri night and a secondary cold front passes off the New
England coast, the pressure gradient should increase enough to
allow a return of minimal SCA cond to the ocean waters, with NW
winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas possibly briefly building to
5 ft Fri AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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The threat for flooding from the rains on Sunday and earlier
today has come to an end. Several flashy small stream rivers
continue to slowly rise, but are expected to stay below minor
flood thresholds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR