000
FXUS61 KOKX 120314
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1014 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the southwest through Tuesday,
then weaken Tuesday night. A cold front will approach late
Tuesday night and pass through early Wednesday, followed by
strong high pressure building from the west from later Wednesday
into Friday. The high will weaken on Friday, allowing a weak
cold front to pass through from the north early Saturday, with
strong high pressure returning for the weekend. Unsettled
weather may make a return on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast remains on track with only minor changes needed.
Previous discussion follows.

In the wake of deepening low pressure that has pulled north into
SE Canada, high pressure has begun to build in from the south
and west. The pressure gradient remains tight between the two
systems, with still some gusts 30-35 mph in the metro area and
across Long Island. Winds should gradually diminish tonight, and
bands of stratocu should also dissipate, with mostly clear skies
in most places overnight, and low temps largely below freezing.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A much quieter regime sets up for the bulk of the remainder of
the week as high pressure largely dominates.

Brief zonal flow aloft in the wake of the departing trough on
Tuesday will give way to another northern stream trough, which
will sends a dry cold front through the area early Wednesday
morning. Ahead of it, a rather tranquil day is on tap. With
little moisture in the column, more sun than clouds can be
expected as afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s, or just a
couple of degrees below normal for the time of year. The relaxed
pressure gradient will allow much lighter winds than on Monday,
with a modest SW flow prevailing. Temperatures overnight fall
back into the 20s across the interior, and the 30s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deep longwave upper trough swinging across ern Canada will
send a cold front through early Wed. CAA in its wake should
maintain temps a few degrees below normal into Thu night as
strong high pressure builds across.

After the upper trough passes, building heights aloft will lead
to a quick warming trend for Fri into early next week. A weak,
dry frontal boundary may sink through from the N early Sat,
accompanied by a band of low to mid level clouds at most but no
appreciable change in temps for the weekend, which should remain
dry as another strong sfc high builds across.

Evolution of a low pressure system to the south early next week
is very uncertain per divergent model solutions, with the
ECMWF keeping the low suppressed well to the south via a more
amplified nrn stream trough while the GFS brings the sys slowly
up the coastal plain. Model guidance during that time at least
has better agreement on a moistening low level maritime flow
bringing clouds into the area Sunday night-Mon, also low chance
PoP mainly for Long Island and SE CT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in during the TAF period.

VFR. WNW will continue to diminish overnight with frequent
gusts dropping off by around midnight. They may become more
occasional before ending. KHPN may hang on to gusts
an hour or two longer than is forecast. Winds shift W late
tonight, then become SW around 10 kt with possible occasional
gusts to 20 kt Tue afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may become more occasional before ending around 04Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt possible in the
afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds have diminished over the ocean waters and Gale Warnings
were replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Meanwhile, the Small
Craft Advisory for the harbor was allowed to expire at 10 pm as
winds winds continue to gradually diminish from west to east.
The hazardous ocean seas should continue into Tue-Tue night,
with WSW flow also gusting up to 25 kt on the ocean Tue night.

SCA cond on the ocean and perhaps on some of the near shore
waters surrounding Long Island on Wed, with W flow gusting up
to 25-30 kt and ocean seas 5-6 ft, should expand to all waters
late day Wed into Wed night as winds shift NW and cold air
advection increases. These conditions should last into Thu AM on
the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays.

As strong high pressure building in from the west weakens Thu
night-Fri night and a secondary cold front passes off the New
England coast, the pressure gradient should increase enough to
allow a return of minimal SCA cond to the ocean waters, with NW
winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas possibly briefly building to
5 ft Fri AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The flood threat has come to an end. Small streams that had
continued to rise earlier today are peaking attm well below
flood stage. No issues expected through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ335-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JP/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR