discussion on 2023-12-12

000
FXUS61 KOKX 121438
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
938 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today then weakens slightly with
the passage of a cold front tonight. Stronger high pressure then
builds back in through Friday with another weak cold front
passing through early Saturday. High pressure returns for the
weekend with low pressure impacting the area Sunday night into
Monday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Aside from some stratocumulus across parts of Long Island,
sunny conditions are present within the region. Temperatures and
dewpoints are in good agreement comparing forecast and observed
values this morning. The forecast remains on track.

High pressure builds into the area through the day today with
mostly clear skies. A tight pressure gradient over the area will
allow for a primarily west to southwest wind over much of the
day with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph, especially along the coast.
Highs will be at or slightly below average with temperatures
rising into the low to middle 40s.

High pressure slightly weakens and pushes south tonight with the
approach of a reinforcing cold front from the northwest. This
cold front passes through tonight with winds shifting more
W/WNW. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s for
most. The NYC metro may only drop into the middle to upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level troughing swings through during the day on Wednesday
as a strong near 1040mb high builds into the area from the west.
Winds will advect colder air from the NW through the day and as
the high builds in, the pressure gradient once again tightens
to bring breezy conditions during the afternoon and overnight
period. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 40s with lows
Wednesday night in the 20s. The NYC metro will drop to near 30.

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue into Thursday,
though it will be noticeably cooler with highs only rising into
the middle to upper 30s under a NW wind. WInds lighten a bit and
shift to the west into Thursday afternoon and evening as the
center of the high pressure moves into the area. Lows Thursday
night will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast on track with little change in the long term period. Stuck
fairly close to the NBM.

Building heights aloft will lead to a quick warming trend for Friday
into early next week. A weak, dry frontal boundary may sink through
from the north early Saturday, accompanied by a band of low to mid
level clouds at most but no appreciable change in temps for the
weekend, which should remain dry as another strong surface high
builds into the area.

Low pressure is then progged to move into the region late Sunday
night into Monday. The exact track and details of this next system
still needs to be determined as the forecast models continue to show
different solutions for its exact path.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in during the TAF period.

VFR through the TAF period. Winds start off from the west this
morning and back WSW or SW as speeds increase to 10 to 12kt by
late morning. Gusts to 15 to 20 kt are expected late this
morning and afternoon, however the gusts may be occasional at
times. The best chance for gusts will be at the coastal
terminals. An isolated gust to 25 kt can not be ruled out. Winds
diminish after 00z.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional today.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA conditions remain likely for the ocean zones through at
least Wednesday night with gusts near 25kt and seas at or above
5 feet.

SCA conditions may expand once again to all waters Wednesday
night with an increasing pressure gradient bringing gusts 25 -
30kt. These look to drop off for the non-ocean waters by
Thursday with the ocean waters following suit shortly thereafter.
Sub-SCA are expected Thursday afternoon and into the overnight.

High pressure weakens Friday and Friday night. A cold front passes
off the New England coast early Saturday, with the pressure gradient
increasing enough to allow a return of minimal SCA conditions to the
ocean waters. Expect NW winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas possibly
briefly building to 5 ft. A better chance of SCA conditions returns
late in the weekend into early next with with the approach of
another low pressure system.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...JM/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW