000
FXUS61 KOKX 131135
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
635 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds into the area today and remains in
control through Saturday. A cold front moves through Saturday,
with brief high pressure building back in through early Sunday.
Low pressure impacts the area Sunday night through early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the latest observations.
A cold front moves through the area this morning with a slight
increase in cloud cover. An upper level trough moves overhead
through the day with a strong 1040mb high pressure building in
from the west. As the high builds in, the pressure gradient
tightens a bit resulting in some gusty winds, especially near
the coast. NW winds of 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 25 mph
will advect cooler air into the region. The trough aloft along
with the brisk NW wind will prevent temperatures from rising too
much, with highs in the low to middle 40s expected.
A cold night is then expected as cold air advection continues. Lows
will be in the low to middle 20s for much of the area. The NYC metro
may drop to near 30.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong high pressure continues to build in through the end of the
week. In addition to dry conditions and clear to mostly clear skies,
temperatures will be below average on Thursday with highs in the
middle to upper 30s.
The center of the high moves south of the area resulting in a wind
shift to the west and southwest Thursday night into Friday. As a
result, temperatures will moderate a bit and be closer to average
Thursday night and Friday. Lows Thursday night will be in the low
to middle 20s for interior areas with the NYC metro near freezing.
Highs on Friday will be near 50 for much of the area as an upper
level ridge moves overhead. A weak cold front moves through the area
on Friday night and into early Saturday resulting in another wind
shift to the NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak, dry frontal boundary is expected to move across the region
on Saturday with no appreciable change in temperatures for the
weekend. Surface high pressure briefly builds back into the region
for the weekend. which should remain dry as another strong surface
high builds into the area. Mainly dry conditions are expected
through the Sunday with highs ranging from the middle 40s to lower
50s.
Unsettled weather is then expected Sunday night through the first
part of next week as low pressure is progged to move into the region
from the south. Forecast models continue to struggle with a
consensus track, so the details on timing and exact impacts remain
uncertain at this time. What we do know is that the low will
approach from the south with rain overspreading the region Sunday
night through Monday night. There may be period of heavy rain
sometime late Sunday Night into Monday, however its way too early to
get into the details on amounts. Depending on the track of the low,
there is a chance that storm could linger into the middle of the
week with chance pops remaining into Tuesday or Wednesday. Most of
the precipitation will fall in the form of plain rain, however there
is a chance that if the storm lingers over the area, some light snow
or snow showers could mix in with the rain well north and west of
NYC. For now, no accumulations are expected. With much uncertainty
for the long term, stuck fairly close to the NBM guidance.
Highs on Monday remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
temperatures falling back into the 40s for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will move across the region this morning. High
pressure builds into the region behind the front.
VFR through the TAF period. Winds will shift to the west then
northwest behind the passage of a cold front this morning. Winds
speeds will remain at or below 10kt ahead of the front. Behind
the front, speeds increase to around 15kt with gusts into the
lower to middle 20kt range. Winds speeds diminish to 10kt or
less and gusts come to an end after 05z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High confidence in wind direction. Medium to high confidence in wind
speed. Isolated gusts into the upper 20kt range possible.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions on the ocean this morning with elevated seas and
gusts to 25 kt expand this afternoon to all the non-ocean waters
with gusts to 25 kts as the pressure gradient tightens with high
pressure building into the area. SCA conditions then slowly drop off
for the non-ocean waters late tonight and into Thursday morning.
Elevated seas and gusts to 25 kt then continue through the day on
Friday on the ocean waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters this weekend. Low
pressure then looks to impact the area Sunday night through early
next week. Although the details still need to be ironed out, it
looks like there is potential for Small Craft to Gale conditions
across most waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight
for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW