000
FXUS61 KOKX 131527
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1027 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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After a cold front moves through, strong high pressure will
build in and remain in control through Saturday. Another cold
front will move through on Saturday, with high pressure briefly
building back in through early Sunday. Low pressure moving up
the coast will then impact the area early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the latest observations.
A cold front will move through late this morning and early this
afternoon. An upper level trough moves overhead through the day
with a strong 1040 mb sfc high building from the west. As the
high builds in, the pressure gradient tightens a bit resulting
in some gusty winds, especially near the coast. NW winds of
10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 25 mph will advect colder air
into the region. The trough aloft along with the brisk NW wind
will prevent temperatures from rising too much, with highs in
the upper 40s for urban NE NJ and isolated spots out east, and
lower/mid 40s elsewhere.
CAA continues tonight. Low temps will bottom out near 30 in NYC
and reach the lower/mid 20s across much of the rest of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Strong high pressure continues to build in through the end of
the week. In addition to dry conditions and clear to mostly
clear skies, temperatures will be below average on Thursday with
highs in the middle to upper 30s.
The center of the high moves south of the area resulting in a
wind shift to the west and southwest Thursday night into
Friday. As a result, temperatures will moderate a bit and be
closer to average Thursday night and Friday. Lows Thursday night
will be in the low to middle 20s for interior areas with the
NYC metro near freezing. Highs on Friday will be near 50 for
much of the area as an upper level ridge moves overhead. A weak
cold front moves through the area on Friday night and into early
Saturday resulting in another wind shift to the NW.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A weak, dry frontal boundary is expected to move across the
region on Saturday with no appreciable change in temperatures
for the weekend. Surface high pressure briefly builds back into
the region for the weekend. which should remain dry as another
strong surface high builds into the area. Mainly dry conditions
are expected through the Sunday with highs ranging from the
middle 40s to lower 50s.
Unsettled weather is then expected Sunday night through the
first part of next week as low pressure is progged to move
into the region from the south. Forecast models continue to
struggle with a consensus track, so the details on timing and
exact impacts remain uncertain at this time. What we do know is
that the low will approach from the south with rain
overspreading the region Sunday night through Monday night.
There may be period of heavy rain some time late Sunday Night
into Monday, however its way too early to get into the details
on amounts. Depending on the track of the low, there is a chance
that storm could linger into the middle of the week with chance
pops remaining into Tuesday or Wednesday. Most of the
precipitation will fall in the form of plain rain, however there
is a chance that if the storm lingers over the area, some light
snow or snow showers could mix in with the rain well north and
west of NYC. For now, no accumulations are expected. With much
uncertainty for the long term, stuck fairly close to the NBM
guidance.
Highs on Monday remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
highs falling back to the 40s throughout for Tuesday and
Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front quickly passes east as high pressure builds into
the region this afternoon and tonight.
VFR through the TAF period. Winds will shift to the northwest
behind the passage of a cold front. Winds speeds increase to
around 15kt with gusts into the lower to middle 20kt range.
Winds speeds diminish to 10kt or less and gusts come to an end
after 05z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High confidence in wind direction. Medium to high confidence in
wind speed. Isolated gusts into the upper 20kt range possible.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA conditions on the ocean this morning with elevated seas and
gusts to 25 kt expand this afternoon to all the non-ocean waters
as the pressure gradient tightens with high pressure building
into the area. SCA conditions then slowly drop off for the non-
ocean waters late tonight and into Thursday morning. Elevated
seas and gusts to 25 kt then continue through the day on
Friday on the ocean waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters this weekend.
Low pressure then looks to impact the area Sunday night
through early next week. Although the details still need to be
ironed out, it looks like there is potential for SCA to gale
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through the
weekend. It is still much too early to get into details on
rainfall amounts with low pressure moving up the coast early
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-
335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW