000
FXUS61 KOKX 131907
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
207 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure will build in through tonight and remain
in control through Saturday. A cold front will move through on
Saturday, with high pressure briefly building back in through
early Sunday. Low pressure moving up the coast will then impact
the area early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cold front has moved through, with a sfc trough off to the NW
fcst to move through over the next few hrs before high pressure
builds in tonight. As this trough passes winds should finally
pick up out of the NW, with gusts 20-25 mph from late day until
around midnight especially in the NYC metro area, in coastal
sections and in the higher elevations. A few lake effect
streamers may make it down into parts of the area tonight (SE CT
this evening, and the lower Hudson Valley into nearby parts of
NJ/CT after midnight) and have fcst only isolated PoP and brief
mostly cloudy skies with these. Otherwise mostly clear and dry
for tonight, with low temps ranging near 30 in NYC, to around 20
well NW of NYC and in the Long Island pine barrens. Wind chills
in the 20s this evening should get as low as the lower 20s
in/around NYC, to the teens most elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A mostly sunny day expected on Thu with temps near or just
below normal expected, with highs in the lower 40s per GFS MOS.
A gusty NW wind in the morning should start to back W in the
late afternoon and at night as the center of the high remains
inland from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic region, and
weakens slightly as a sfc trough moves into New England.
Ridging aloft will be building across across Thu night into
Fri, which in combination with the sfc trough and downslope W
flow should lead to milder temps daytime Fri. After one more
cold night with lows from the lower/mid 30s invof NYC to the 20s
elsewhere, highs on Fri under mostly sunny skies should range
from 50-55, which is close to 10 degrees above normal in spots.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak, dry frontal boundary is expected to move across the
region on Saturday with no appreciable change in temperatures
for the weekend. Surface high pressure briefly builds back into
the region for the weekend. which should remain dry as another
strong surface high builds into the area. Mainly dry conditions
are expected through the Sunday with highs ranging from the
middle 40s to lower 50s.
Unsettled weather is then expected Sunday night through the
first part of next week as low pressure is progged to move
into the region from the south. Forecast models continue to
struggle with a consensus track, so the details on timing and
exact impacts remain uncertain at this time. What we do know is
that the low will approach from the south with rain
overspreading the region Sunday night through Monday night.
There may be period of heavy rain some time late Sunday Night
into Monday, however its way too early to get into the details
on amounts. Depending on the track of the low, there is a chance
that storm could linger into the middle of the week with chance
pops remaining into Tuesday or Wednesday. Most of the
precipitation will fall in the form of plain rain, however there
is a chance that if the storm lingers over the area, some light
snow or snow showers could mix in with the rain well north and
west of NYC. For now, no accumulations are expected. With much
uncertainty for the long term, stuck fairly close to the NBM
guidance.
Highs on Monday remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with
highs falling back to the 40s throughout for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front quickly passes east as high pressure builds into
the region this afternoon and tonight.
VFR through the TAF period.
NW winds speeds increase to around 15kt with gusts 20-25 kt.
Winds speeds diminish to 10kt or less and gusts come to an end
after 05z.
NW winds generally around 10 kt on Thu.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High confidence in wind direction. Medium to high confidence in
wind speed.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday through Sunday: VFR.
Monday... MVFR or lower with a chance of rain. Gusty E-SE winds
possible along the coast
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds on the harbor and western Sound now look to come in under
25 kt, so have cancelled the SCA there. Farther east, SCA
continues into at least tonight, as winds shift NW and pick up
going into this evening, with gusts up to 30 kt on the ern
ocean waters and up to 25 kt elsewhere, while ocean seas peak at
5-6 ft.
SCA has also been extended for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet,
where gusts up to 25 kt should linger into the early morning.
As winds back W to WSW Thu afternoon/evening, winds and seas
should increase late Thu night into daytime Fri especially E of
Fire Island Inlet, with gusts 25-30 kt and seas 5-6 ft. These
conds should subside by Fri evening.
Sub-SCA conditions expected on the area waters this weekend.
Low pressure then looks to impact the area Sunday night through
early next week. Although the details still need to be ironed
out, it looks like there is potential for SCA to gale
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic concerns expected through daytime Sunday. Beyond
then, it is still much too early to get into details on rainfall
amounts with low pressure moving up the coast early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-
340-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/BG
HYDROLOGY...BC/BG