discussion on 2023-12-14

000
FXUS61 KOKX 141058
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
558 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds in from the west through Friday. Another
high situated over southeast Canada builds in on Saturday, tracking
off the New England coast Saturday night. Low pressure likely
impacts the region Sunday into Monday with another low possibly
lingering nearby Tuesday and Wednesday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --A strong 1040 mb sfc high centered over the Ohio Valley
gradually translates into the Mid Atlantic as ridging aloft
builds east into the region.

Dry and cold start to the day with temperatures below freezing for
most, before rebounding into the lower 40s, or a few degrees below
normal. NW flow in the morning backs W by the afternoon as the
high tracks a bit closer. Skies remain mostly sunny, if not
entirely clear. Another cold night expected, though enhanced NW
flow as a weak trough swings through New England should mitigate
additional radiational cooling. Lows bottom out in the 20s and
low 30s for most by daybreak Fri, with mid 30s in the urban
metro.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure continues to settle over the Mid-Atlantic on
Friday as ridging builds into the region. The weak trough
passing to the north may continue to allow for a few 20 to 25
mph gusts into the afternoon. Otherwise, sunshine prevails with
subsidence aloft helping to maintain little in the way of
clouds. Temperatures nudge upwards with the building ridge and
downsloping winds. Highs on Friday should achieve the low to
mid 50s, or about 10 degrees above normal for mid December.

Flattening ridge translates east Friday night into Saturday, and
then offshore Saturday night. At the surface, another high builds
in, this time from the north and west on Saturday. Abundant
sunshine continues, with another afternoon into the lower 50s
for most. The high slides off the New England coast Saturday
night, setting up onshore flow and increasing moisture ahead of
developing low pressure over the Southeast US. No precipitation
is expected through the period, though cloud cover increases
Saturday night with the easterly winds.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Better agreement among the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
regarding the next storm system to impact the area. Low pressure
over the Southeast shifts north and deepens with the help of phasing
energy aloft. The center of the low passes over us or to our west
during Monday as it continues to head north into SE Canada. Precip
type Sunday through Monday will be rain. Didn`t want to go with
categorical PoPs just yet - would like to first see if the models
trend somewhat consistent with a similar solution. With that said,
best chance of rain is Sunday night into Monday morning, however
there`s a decent chance of rain in some areas during the day Sunday
as well as Monday afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times as a
low level jet interacts with an anomalously moist air mass. See the
hydrology section for more details. Strong wind gusts will be
possible - potentially up to advisory criteria in some locations.
Right now the timing for the strongest wind gusts would be late
Sunday night into Monday morning, but this may change.

With the storm center continuing to head NE through Canada Monday
night into Tuesday, a strong shortwave may help generate another low
center nearby us and possibly linger through a good portion of
Wednesday. The low would at least be weaker this time, but it
nevertheless continues a chance of precipitation over here all the
way into Wednesday. A wintry mix will then be possible as a colder
thermal profile will be in place.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be in place through tonight.

VFR. NW winds around 10kt becoming W this afternoon, then WSW this
evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night through Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain - mainly in the
afternoon. E gust up to 20kt possible at the coast in the aftn.

Sunday night and Monday: MVFR or lower in rain. Chance of E-SE gusts
of at least 30kt along the coast. LLWS possible as well, mainly late
Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds may shift to SW to W Monday
afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA continues on the ocean waters east of Fire Island until 15Z
this morning with seas 5 to 6 ft and gusts to 25 kt or so. These
should lower below advisory criteria by late morning, before
increasing once again this evening. Another SCA will likely need
to be hoisted on the ocean for tonight into Friday with gusts 25
to 30 kt once again possible. These conds subside by Fri evening,
and conditions are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on all
waters through Sat night.

Winds and seas increase in advance of low pressure approaching from
the south Sunday into Monday. Uncertainty regarding its ultimate
track, strength and timing, but at least SCA conds will probably
occur at some point on most, if not all, waters during this period.
Potential for gales as well, but too much uncertainty to include in
the HWO at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain from Sunday through Monday could potentially be in the range of
at least 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts. At least minor
urban/small stream flooding will be possible. Too early to have any
confidence in any flash flooding potential as a trend of consistency
has not yet been established by the models. Adverse impacts from
rain so far appear to most likely occur during Sunday night into
Monday morning when the rain could be heavy at times.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ331-332-340-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350-
353.

SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR