000
FXUS61 KOKX 141821
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
121 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds in from the west through Friday. A
dry warm front passes through this evening. Another high
situated over southeast Canada builds in on Saturday, tracking
off the New England coast Saturday night. Low pressure likely
impacts the region Sunday into Monday with another low possibly
lingering nearby Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong 1040 mb sfc high centered over the Ohio Valley
gradually translates into the Mid Atlantic as ridging aloft
builds east into the region. A warm front approaches from the
west, passing through dry this evening.
Highs are forecast to top out in the lower 40s, or a few
degrees below normal. NW winds will be to the W this afternoon
as the high tracks a bit closer. Skies have cleared for the
remainder of this afternoon.
Another cold night expected, though enhanced NW flow as a weak
trough swings through New England should mitigate additional
radiational cooling. Lows bottom out in the 20s and low 30s for
most by daybreak Fri, with mid 30s in the urban metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure continues to settle over the Mid-Atlantic on
Friday as ridging builds into the region. The weak trough
passing to the north may continue to allow for a few 20 to 25
mph gusts into the afternoon. Otherwise, sunshine prevails with
subsidence aloft helping to maintain little in the way of
clouds. Temperatures nudge upwards with the building ridge and
downsloping winds. Highs on Friday should achieve the low to
mid 50s, or about 10 degrees above normal for mid December.
Flattening ridge translates east Friday night into Saturday, and
then offshore Saturday night. At the surface, another high builds
in, this time from the north and west on Saturday. Abundant
sunshine continues, with another afternoon into the lower 50s
for most. The high slides off the New England coast Saturday
night, setting up onshore flow and increasing moisture ahead of
developing low pressure over the Southeast US. No precipitation
is expected through the period, though cloud cover increases
Saturday night with the easterly winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Better agreement among the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
regarding the next storm system to impact the area. Low pressure
over the Southeast shifts north and deepens with the help of phasing
energy aloft. The center of the low passes over us or to our west
during Monday as it continues to head north into SE Canada. Precip
type Sunday through Monday will be rain. Didn`t want to go with
categorical PoPs just yet - would like to first see if the models
trend somewhat consistent with a similar solution. With that said,
best chance of rain is Sunday night into Monday morning, however
there`s a decent chance of rain in some areas during the day Sunday
as well as Monday afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times as a
low level jet interacts with an anomalously moist air mass. See the
hydrology section for more details. Strong wind gusts will be
possible - potentially up to advisory criteria in some locations.
Right now the timing for the strongest wind gusts would be late
Sunday night into Monday morning, but this may change.
With the storm center continuing to head NE through Canada Monday
night into Tuesday, a strong shortwave may help generate another low
center nearby us and possibly linger through a good portion of
Wednesday. The low would at least be weaker this time, but it
nevertheless continues a chance of precipitation over here all the
way into Wednesday. A wintry mix will then be possible as a colder
thermal profile will be in place.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as strong high pressure remains off to the west. A dry warm
front will pass through early this evening.
WNW flow around or just under 10 kt should back WSW-SW tonight,
then veer W again by daybreak Fri.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KJFK winds have been erratic since 18Z, fluctuating between
250-300 true. Prevailing direction should be closer to 300 til
this evening, unscheduled AMD possible to fine tune this and any
other wind shifts at the NYC metro terminals.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon through Sunday morning: VFR.
Sunday afternoon: Rain likely with MVFR or lower cond. E winds
G20kt NYC metro/coastal terminals.
Sunday night and Monday: IFR in rain, possibly heavy at times.
SE winds G30+ kt along the coast and LLWS. Winds shift to S
Monday afternoon, then shift SW and diminish Mon night.
Tuesday: Chance of rain with MVFR or lower cond. NW winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA has expired on the ocean waters this morning, however, it
has been replaced by another for tonight into Friday with west
gusts 25-30 kt expected. These conds subside by Fri evening,
and conditions are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on
all waters through Sat night.
Winds and seas increase in advance of low pressure approaching
from the south Sunday into Monday. Uncertainty regarding its
ultimate track, strength and timing, but at least SCA conds will
probably occur at some point on most, if not all, waters during
this period. Potential for gales as well, but too much
uncertainty to include in the HWO at this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rain from Sunday through Monday could potentially be in the
range of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts. Minor
urban/small stream flooding will be possible. Waiting for better
model run- to-run consistency to determine if this will expand
to include an areal/flash flood threat or a larger river flood
threat. At this time, the heaviest rainfall looks to be from
Sunday night into Monday morning.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/BG
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR