000
FXUS61 KOKX 162055
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the region shifts east tonight. Strong low
pressure then approaches from the south on Sunday with its
center passing northward through or just west of the Tri-State Area
on Monday. In the wake of the exiting low, high pressure builds in
from the west through Wednesday, remaining in place through late
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Easterly winds develop tonight as high pressure moves northeast into
New England. As the high departs an increase in low level moisture
will bring cloudy conditions across the region. Meanwhile, an area
of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico begins to move north tonight
and along the east coast on Sunday. This will result in Gulf
Moisture being advected into the local area which will result in
increasing clouds through the day on Sunday with some light rain or
drizzle possible. Rain chances increase Sunday afternoon with rain
likely Sunday afternoon/evening.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, with highs on
Sunday in the low to mid 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The storm moves north along the east coast, with the low center
passing over the region or just to our west Monday. The rain could
be heavy at times Sunday night into Monday morning as a low level
jet interacts with an anomalously moist air mass. PWATs ranging from
1.25 to 1.5 inches will produce widespread heavy rainfall with
rainfall totals between 2 to 3 inches between Sunday night and
Monday. With upward forcing from both the low level jet and near the
deepening low center, a thunderstorm with heavy downpours cannot be
ruled out. Urban and small stream flooding impacts will be possible
starting late Sunday night and lasting into Monday. Therefore a
Flood Watch has been issued from Sunday afternoon and Monday
afternoon.
See the hydrology section for more details. Rain chances will lower
through the day. Temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 40s
and low 50s and highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 50s.
Some record high temperatures will be approached.
Winds will also become an increased impact Sunday night into Monday
as the pressure gradient tightens. Wind gusts to 40-50 mph will
become likely across the region Sunday night into Monday. Will
continue with the high wind watches and wind advisories as
models continue to show a strong low level jet, heavy downpour
potential, and a storm track that would favor strong winds
across these areas. Even with the low level jet out of the
picture by late Monday morning, the rest of Monday should be
breezy as SW to W winds gusts to 30-40mph.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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To begin the period the upper level trough axis associated with the
exiting storm system will pivot through the area Monday night into
Tuesday. There will not be much left in terms of low to mid level
moisture, with the anomalous moisture pool associated with the short
term storm system racing north into the high latitudes. However,
cyclonic curvature and frictional effects in the lower levels can
lead to a few rain, and even a few snow showers to begin the period
for Monday night into a portion of Tuesday. The pressure gradient
should decrease Monday night as high pressure off to the west-
southwest slowly builds. Behind the cold front from the departing
storm system it turns noticeably colder into Tuesday morning. This
will set up a more seasonably day on Tuesday as temperatures will be
a good 15 to 20 degrees colder for much of the area compared to 24
hours earlier. Tuesday should be relatively dry as PoPs continue to
lower with mainly chance and slight chance PoPs with a few rain and
wet snow showers in the vicinity. By Tuesday night with a left over
NW breeze wind chills may get down into the teens widespread across
the CWA.
High pressure and a period of quiet weather will take shape for mid
to late week. A rather expansive area of synoptic scale subsidence
associated with the high sets up and prevails along the East coast.
Towards late Friday into Saturday the global guidance is in fairly
good agreement that a dampening shortwave will approach from the
west. This should bring more in the way of mid and upper level
clouds in all likelihood, but with a lack of dynamics and a good low
level moisture source indications at this point are for it to remain
dry to begin next weekend.
Stayed fairly close to the NBM through the period as any adjustments
away from the NBM were minor, and mainly had to do with adjusting
cloud cover up for late Friday into Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Strong high pressure over southeastern Canada moves into the
Canadian Maritimes tonight, and to the east Sunday morning.
Meanwhile deepening low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
begins to track north through early Sunday afternoon.
VFR through early this evening, MVFR cigs possibly develop as early
as 04Z-06Z for the coastal terminals, under easterly flow, expanding
to the interior terminals as the night progresses. Conditions then
remain MVFR through the forecast period with a chance of IFR Sunday
morning. There is some uncertainty with the timing of MVFR
developing.
Winds in general remain E, 10kt or less through the forecast period.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is uncertainty in the onset timing of MVFR cigs. IFR cigs
possible after 09Z Sunday with drizzle. Cigs may remain MVFR until
late Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: Rain with MVFR to IFR conds. E winds G20-25kt
along the coast.
Sunday night and Monday: IFR to LIFR in rain, possibly heavy at
times. Isolated thunderstorms possible late Sunday night into Monday
morning. SE winds 20-30kt gusting 35-55kt along the coast, becoming
S Monday morning into the afternoon 20-30kt gusting G35-45kt along
the coast, and then SW to W diminishing late Monday afternoon and
night west to east. LLWS late Sunday night into Monday morning, with
2Kft winds 70-85kt possible.
Tuesday: Chance of a few flurries or snow showers mainly north and
west of the NYC terminals early, then mixed rain and snow showers
along the coast during the afternoon. MVFR, possibly IFR, especially
in any snow showers.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Relatively tranquil conditions will continue on all waters today
and tonight. Winds and seas will then increase on Sunday, but
more so Sunday night into Monday. The strongest winds are
likely to occur late at night Sunday into Monday morning.
Additionally, gales are still probable on most waters Monday
afternoon. Wave heights on the ocean peaking at 16-21ft Monday.
Therefore a Storm Watch still in effect from Sunday evening
through Monday afternoon.
Monday night conditions improve with any leftover gales going over
to small craft advisories, with most of the nearshore waters getting
to sub advisory conditions later at night. For the daytime on
Tuesday look for small craft conditions for all waters with gusts at
or just exceeding 25 kt. With high pressure building look for gusts
to subside, but seas will remain elevated 5 to 6 ft ocean season
Wednesday, and 4 to 6 ft ocean seas lingering into Thursday on a NW
to N wind.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Any rain that occurs Sunday morning will be light. The steadier
rain arrives late Sunday afternoon/evening and continues into
Monday. The rain is expected to be moderate, with periods of
heavy rain late Sunday night into Monday morning. A widespread
2 to 3 inches of rain is expected with locally higher amounts
possible. There`s a good chance of minor urban and smaller
river/stream flooding, but still a low chance of flash flooding.
With that said, the areas that would be more prone to flash
flooding would be NE NJ into the Lower Hudson Valley. Flooding
impacts are more likely to begin late Sunday night into Monday.
A flood watch is now in effect.
Otherwise, no hydrologic issues expected mid to late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood watches will likely be issued later today for
much of southern Queens, southern and eastern portions of LI and
coastal CT as potential has increased for more widespread
moderate coastal flooding with the daytime high tide cycle on
Monday. Elsewhere minor to moderate coastal flood potential is
increasing.
Along the ocean beachfront, potential exists for 12+ ft
breakers Sunday overnight into Monday, which combined with
elevated water levels, would result in widespread dune erosion
and scattered overwashes along the ocean shores.
There is still a good bit of spread in the storm surge guidance
for Monday afternoon, due to spread in exact storm track and
intensity as it moves up the coast. A track more to the west
would place the area more squarely under the strongest winds and
increase the threat for widespread moderate to locally major
coastal flooding for the most vulnerable portions of the area.
A more easterly track would lessen the threat. More clarity on
these scenarios likely over the next 24 to 36 hrs.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
CTZ005>007-009>011.
Wind Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon EST Monday
for CTZ005>007.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning
for CTZ008>012.
Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
NYZ067>075-176-178.
Wind Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon EST Monday
for NYZ071>074.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning
for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for NYZ074-075.
Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for NYZ073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Warning from 9 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Wind Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon EST Monday
for NJZ006.
Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
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