000
FXUS61 KOKX 181458
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
958 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure passes through the area today. The low then
tracks north into southeastern Canada tonight with high pressure
slowly building in during Tuesday. High pressure will then remain in
control through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Changes with this update:
The high wind warning for Queens, Brooklyn, and Nassau counties
has been cancelled.
The wind advisory for Hudson, Bergen, Essex, Union, Westchester,
Manhattan, Bronx, and Richmond Counties.
A broad 983 mb low is situated over eastern upstate NY with the
center extending down across the NYC metro and off the NJ shore.
The strongest winds have shifted east and will continue across S
CT and eastern Long Island. The LLJ should shift further east
through the rest of the morning.
A middle level dry slot has allowed the heaviest rain to end
over NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and NYC metro. A band of heavy
rain with isolated thunder continues across eastern Long Island
and SE CT. This band should shift east of the area in the next
few hours.
The low should slowly pivot across the region into the
afternoon. Bands of rain may should redevelop on the backside of
the low into the early afternoon with some additional locally
moderate to briefly heavy rainfall possible.
The threat for high winds likely ends late this morning. There
should be a brief lull in gusty winds with the center of the
broad low over the area. Gusty W winds will follow the passage
of the low center with fairly steep pressure rises. However,
gusts 25-40 mph are expected, under advisory levels.
No changes were made to the Flood Watch. Multiple rivers and
stream across NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley are in flood with
several reaching moderate flood stage and even one river
currently in Major (Saddle River ad Ridgewood).
Mild with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A few
sites have broken their daily high temperature records and RERs
will be sent later this morning. See the climate section below
for more details.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The low will be north of the area tonight with a brief break in
precipitation. Wrap around moisture in the back side of the storm
with the approach of a closed mid-level will bring a chance of
rain/snow showers well NW of the city late tonight into Tuesday
morning. There may even be slight coating of snow in the higher
terrain of Western Orange County. Dry for Tuesday night with the
flow aloft becoming anticyclonic and surface high pressure building
in.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes region will weaken
into a trough as it moves toward the forecast area. A weak area
of low pressure looks to form along the frontal boundary
offshore, and a blocking pattern will then set up as the trough
becomes an upper level low once again and will interact with the
weak surface low offshore, becoming vertically stacked by the
middle of the week. With a blocked pattern over the region, the
surface high that builds in during Tuesday night will remain over
the area through next weekend. This will sustain a period of dry
weather Wednesday through Sunday.
The area will be on the eastern side of the high during much of the
week, with a northwest to northerly flow for much time. This will
lead to seasonable temperatures with highs in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION EVENT TODAY...
Strong low pressure approaches tracks near the region this
morning and then lifts to the north and east, dragging a cold
front through this afternoon.
Low pressure is currently over the region, allowing for a bit of
a lull in the conditions. Some terminals are improving to VFR
and the winds have dropped off a bit. However, once the low
tracks east of the region, conditions should deteriorate once
again. Do not think they will be as bad as earlier, but MVFR
conditions or lower is expected and winds will pick up again,
with gusts around 30 to 35 kt range. This should occur around
17Z for the metro terminals and KHPN and KSWF, 18Z for KISP and
KBDR, and 20-21Z for KGON.
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions this morning with improvement behind
the departing surface low and cold front in the afternoon.
Conditions are forecast to improve to MVFR in the afternoon,
becoming VFR by late afternoon for all but KGON, which should
follow by early evening. Cigs on Tuesday may occasionally go
MVFR.
Peak S/SE winds occurring now thru mid morning or so, 20-30kt
G30-50kt, with strongest along the coast. Slow improvement late
morning through the afternoon, with winds veering to S/SW, then
W/NW around 20kt G30-35kt in the afternoon into early evening.
Winds will then gradually diminish and back to the SW G20-25kt
Monday evening. Gusts 20 to 25 kt linger through Tuesday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Isolated 45 to 50 kt gusts thru 15Z this morning, especially at
KJFK and KLGA.
Gusts after 13Z could be more occasional than frequent until low
passes to the east in the early afternoon.
Timing of flight categories could vary by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR cigs possible. WNW G20-25kt in
the afternoon.
Wednesday through Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Have cancelled the Storm Warning on the NY Harbor and ocean west
of Fire Island Inlet and replaced with a gale warning. The
strongest winds are shifting to the eastern waters this morning.
The ongoing Storm Warnings will gradually be converted to gale
warnings on the ocean and possibly LI Bays and eastern Sound
with SCAs elsewhere.
Gales should then prevail this afternoon on the ocean and
perhaps over the eastern bays and eastern LI Sound. Otherwise,
solid SCA conditions this afternoon for the rest of the waters.
Ocean seas are expected to range roughly up to 16-21ft during
the day today.
All waters will probably be experiencing SCA conds by midnight
tonight, then as winds continue to subside, conditions should be
below advisory thresholds by the end of tonight on the non-ocean
waters. Seas remain elevated on the ocean through at least the end
of the week as long period swells from an offshore storm keep waves
elevated.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
The heaviest rain has shifted to eastern Long Island and
southeast CT. Additional moderate to locally heavy rain is
possible late this morning into the afternoon. This could add to
the already ongoing river and stream flooding across NE NJ and
Lower Hudson Valley. Several rivers and streams are in minor to
moderate flooding with Saddle River at Ridgewood current in
major.
Total rainfall amounts have ranged from 1.5 to 4.5 inches. An
additional 0.5 to 1 inch is possible with the higher totals
across eastern Long Island and Southeast CT. The Flood Watch
remains in effect tonight through this afternoon.
Residual river flooding will then continue tonight as levels
subside. Afterwards, no hydrologic impacts expected through next
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood warnings continue for southern Queens, southern
and eastern portions of LI and coastal CT, and expanded for NE
NJ as widespread moderate coastal flooding is likely with the
daytime high tide cycle today. This includes the tidally affected
rivers, particularly Hudson and Hackensack rivers, where the surge
is favored to be forced upstream by the strong southerly flow. There
is potential for locally major flood thresholds to be reached for
southern Queens, SW LI and twin forks, if windshift occurs near or
after the time of high tide.
Elsewhere, minor to locally moderate coastal flood potential exists
for NE LI and northern portions of NYC.
Peak surge of 3 1/2 to 5 ft will likely be between high tidal cycles
this morning. A later timing of windshift closer to today`s early
afternoon time of high tide will aid potential for major flood
thresholds to be reached or exceeded for the most vulnerable
southern Queens, SW and E LI portions of the area. This will likely
not be evident until the time of high tide is approaching. Forecast
is a blend of 75th percentile of PETSS, Stevens, and deterministic
ESTOFS.
Heavy rainfall and/or runoff coinciding with this afternoon`s high
tides will exacerbate street and property flooding issues along the
coast and tidally affected rivers.
Along the ocean beachfront, potential exists for 12-16 ft breakers
today (8-12ft for NYC beachfront), which combined with elevated
water levels, will likely result in widespread dune erosion and
scattered overwashes.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for December 18th...
EWR...64/1937
BDR...61/1937
NYC...63/1964
LGA...63/2006
JFK...64/1984
ISP...59/1984
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Flood Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ005>007-
009>011.
Wind Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ005>007.
High Wind Warning until noon EST today for CTZ008>012.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ067>075-176-
178.
High Wind Warning until noon EST today for NYZ078>081.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ071-
079>081-178-179.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ074-
075.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ072-
073-078-176-177.
NJ...Flood Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ006-
104-106-108.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345-350-353.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DR/DW/JP
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...