000
FXUS61 KOKX 181551
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1051 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure passes through the area today. The low then
tracks north into southeastern Canada tonight with high pressure
slowly building in during Tuesday. High pressure will then remain in
control through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Changes with this update:
The high wind warning is now only in effect for Eastern Suffolk
and New London Counties. Wind advisories in interior SW CT have
been cancelled.
A broad 983 mb low is situated over eastern upstate NY with the
center extending down across the NYC metro and off the NJ shore.
A small second low center exists just off the NJ coast. The
strongest LLJ has shifted east of our area along with the
heaviest rainfall. The threat for high winds will end by noon
across eastern Suffolk and New London counties. There may be a
brief lull in the gusty conditions with the broad low over the
area. Gusty W-WNW winds will follow as the low slowly moves to
the east into the afternoon. However, gusts 25-40 mph are
expected, under advisory levels.
Drier air has briefly moved over portions of eastern Long Island
with some peaks of sun. This will be short-lived as clouds and
rain should fill back in as the low begins to shift to the east
this afternoon.
No changes were made to the Flood Watch. Multiple rivers and
stream across NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley are in flood with
several reaching moderate flood stage and even one river
currently in Major (Saddle River ad Ridgewood).
Mild with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. ISP
has broken their daily high temperature record for Dec 18th. A
few other sites could still break their daily high temperature
records. See the climate section below for more details.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The low will be north of the area tonight with a brief break in
precipitation. Wrap around moisture onn the back side of the
storm with the approach of a closed mid-level will bring a
chance of rain/snow showers well NW of the city late tonight
into Tuesday morning. Dry for Tuesday night with the flow aloft
becoming anticyclonic and surface high pressure building in.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes region will weaken
into a trough as it moves toward the forecast area. A weak area
of low pressure looks to form along the frontal boundary
offshore, and a blocking pattern will then set up as the trough
becomes an upper level low once again and will interact with the
weak surface low offshore, becoming vertically stacked by the
middle of the week. With a blocked pattern over the region, the
surface high that builds in during Tuesday night will remain over
the area through next weekend. This will sustain a period of dry
weather Wednesday through Sunday.
The area will be on the eastern side of the high during much of the
week, with a northwest to northerly flow for much time. This will
lead to seasonable temperatures with highs in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT AVIATION EVENT TODAY...
Strong low pressure approaches tracks near the region this
morning and then lifts to the north and east, dragging a cold
front through this afternoon.
Low pressure is currently over the region, allowing for a bit of
a lull in the conditions. Some terminals are improving to VFR
and the winds have dropped off a bit. However, once the low
tracks east of the region, conditions should deteriorate once
again. Do not think they will be as bad as earlier, but MVFR
conditions or lower is expected and winds will pick up again,
with gusts around 30 to 35 kt range. This should occur around
17Z for the metro terminals and KHPN and KSWF, 18Z for KISP and
KBDR, and 20-21Z for KGON.
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions this morning with improvement behind
the departing surface low and cold front in the afternoon.
Conditions are forecast to improve to MVFR in the afternoon,
becoming VFR by late afternoon for all but KGON, which should
follow by early evening. Cigs on Tuesday may occasionally go
MVFR.
Peak S/SE winds occurring now thru mid morning or so, 20-30kt
G30-50kt, with strongest along the coast. Slow improvement late
morning through the afternoon, with winds veering to S/SW, then
W/NW around 20kt G30-35kt in the afternoon into early evening.
Winds will then gradually diminish and back to the SW G20-25kt
Monday evening. Gusts 20 to 25 kt linger through Tuesday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Isolated 45 to 50 kt gusts thru 15Z this morning, especially at
KJFK and KLGA.
Gusts after 13Z could be more occasional than frequent until low
passes to the east in the early afternoon.
Timing of flight categories could vary by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR cigs possible. WNW G20-25kt in
the afternoon.
Wednesday through Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Have cancelled the Storm Warning on all waters except east of
of Moriches Inlet and the LI Sound east of the mouth of the CT
River. Gale warnings are now in effect for all but the Western
Sound where an SCA is now in effect. The ongoing Storm Warnings
will be converted to gale warnings around midday.
Gales should then prevail this afternoon on the ocean and
perhaps over the eastern bays and eastern LI Sound. Otherwise,
solid SCA conditions this afternoon for the rest of the waters.
Ocean seas are expected to range roughly up to 16-21ft during
the day today.
All waters will probably be experiencing SCA conds by midnight
tonight, then as winds continue to subside, conditions should be
below advisory thresholds by the end of tonight on the non-ocean
waters. Seas remain elevated on the ocean through at least the end
of the week as long period swells from an offshore storm keep waves
elevated.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
The heaviest rain has shifted east of the area. Additional
moderate to brief locally heavy rain is possible late this
morning into the afternoon. This could add to the already
ongoing river and stream flooding across NE NJ and Lower Hudson
Valley. Several rivers and streams are in minor to moderate
flooding with Saddle River at Ridgewood current in major.
Total rainfall amounts have ranged from 1.5 to 4.5 inches. An
additional 0.5 inch is possible into this afternoon. The Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight through this afternoon.
Residual river flooding will then continue tonight as levels
subside. Afterwards, no hydrologic impacts expected through next
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood warnings continue for southern Queens, southern
and eastern portions of LI and coastal CT, and expanded for NE
NJ as widespread moderate coastal flooding is likely with the
daytime high tide cycle today. This includes the tidally affected
rivers, particularly Hudson and Hackensack rivers, where the surge
is favored to be forced upstream by the strong southerly flow. There
is potential for locally major flood thresholds to be reached for
southern Queens, SW LI and twin forks, if windshift occurs near or
after the time of high tide.
Elsewhere, minor to locally moderate coastal flood potential exists
for NE LI and northern portions of NYC.
Peak surge of 3 1/2 to 5 ft will likely be between high tidal cycles
this morning. A later timing of windshift closer to today`s early
afternoon time of high tide will aid potential for major flood
thresholds to be reached or exceeded for the most vulnerable
southern Queens, SW and E LI portions of the area. This will likely
not be evident until the time of high tide is approaching. Forecast
is a blend of 75th percentile of PETSS, Stevens, and deterministic
ESTOFS.
Heavy rainfall and/or runoff coinciding with this afternoon`s high
tides will exacerbate street and property flooding issues along the
coast and tidally affected rivers.
Along the ocean beachfront, potential exists for 12-16 ft breakers
today (8-12ft for NYC beachfront), which combined with elevated
water levels, will likely result in widespread dune erosion and
scattered overwashes.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for December 18th...
EWR...64/1937
BDR...61/1937
NYC...63/1964
LGA...63/2006
JFK...64/1984
ISP...59/1984
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Flood Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ005>007-
009>011.
High Wind Warning until noon EST today for CTZ008-011-012.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ067>075-176-
178.
High Wind Warning until noon EST today for NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ071-
079>081-178-179.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ074-
075.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ072-
073-078-176-177.
NJ...Flood Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ006-
104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-338-340-
345.
Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ332-350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ335.
Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP/DR
MARINE...JC/JP/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...