000
FXUS61 KOKX 181845
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
145 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure passes through the area today. The low then
tracks north into southeastern Canada tonight with high pressure
slowly building in during Tuesday. High pressure will then remain in
control through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated to cancel the flood watch. Additional freshwater
flooding is not expected with the remaining light to
occasionally moderate rain this afternoon.

Strong low pressure will continue to shift eastward across New
England through this evening. The strongest winds now exist
across eastern New England with the intense LLJ ahead of the
low. Winds have shifted to the W-WNW across western Long Island
and SW CT on westward behind the low. Immediately ahead of the
low winds will still be out of the S-SE until the front
associated with the low passes through this afternoon.

Residual flooding along rivers and stream across NE NJ and
Lower Hudson Valley will continue for the rest of the afternoon.

Gusty W-WNW winds this afternoon early evening may gust 25-35
mph at times. Some localized gusts up to 40 mph are possible.

Highs for the day have likely been reached at most locations
with slightly cooler air working its way in behind the low.
More seasonable air does not arrive until tonight and Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The low will be north of the area tonight with a brief break in
precipitation. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the
storm with the approach of a closed mid-level will bring a
chance of rain/snow showers well NW of the city late tonight
into Tuesday morning. Dry for Tuesday night with the flow aloft
becoming anticyclonic and surface high pressure building in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes region will weaken
into a trough as it moves toward the forecast area. A weak area
of low pressure looks to form along the frontal boundary
offshore, and a blocking pattern will then set up as the trough
becomes an upper level low once again and will interact with the
weak surface low offshore, becoming vertically stacked by the
middle of the week. With a blocked pattern over the region, the
surface high that builds in during Tuesday night will remain over
the area through next weekend. This will sustain a period of dry
weather Wednesday through Sunday.

The area will be on the eastern side of the high during much of the
week, with a northwest to northerly flow for much time. This will
lead to seasonable temperatures with highs in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong low pressure tracks away from the region this afternoon
with high pressure building in tonight.

Low pressure is currently east of the city terminals as winds
have shifted to the W or NW for all these terminals. Sustained
winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt are possible over
the next couple of hours, but should diminish through the
afternoon as the low continues to head away from the area.

IFR to MVFR conditions will also continue over the next couple
of hours in the city. A return to VFR is expected by around 20Z
for the city terminals or sooner if the low tracks faster out of
the area. VFR will return from southwest to northeast from that
time onward. The rest of the TAF period is expected to be VFR
everywhere. However ceilings on Tuesday may occasionally go
MVFR, with highest chances for KSWF and KHPN.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected through the rest of the afternoon with
some uncertainty in improving conditions. Gusts of up to 35 kt,
but diminishing through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR cigs possible. WNW G20-25kt in
the afternoon.

Wednesday through Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings are now in effect on all waters except the Western
Sound where an SCA is in effect through tonight. Gales are
likely this afternoon and early evening, especially immediately
behind the passage of the low. SCA conditions are then expected
to continue tonight. Ocean seas are expected to range roughly
up to 16-21ft through the evening.

Conditions should be below advisory thresholds by early Tuesday
morning on the non-ocean waters. Seas remain elevated on the
ocean through at least the end of the week as long period swells
from an offshore storm keep waves elevated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Additional rainfall this afternoon will likely average around
one quarter inch with no additional freshwater flooding
expected.

Residual river flooding will then continue tonight as levels
subside. Afterwards, no hydrologic impacts expected through next
weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood warnings continue for southern Queens, southern
and eastern portions of LI and coastal CT, and expanded for NE
NJ as widespread moderate coastal flooding is likely with the
high tide this early this afternoon. This includes the tidally
affected rivers, particularly Hudson and Hackensack rivers,
where the surge is favored to be forced upstream by the strong
southerly flow.

Elsewhere, minor to locally moderate coastal flood potential exists
for NE LI and northern portions of NYC.

Heavy rainfall and/or runoff coinciding with this afternoon`s high
tides will exacerbate street and property flooding issues along the
coast and tidally affected rivers.

Along the ocean beachfront, potential exists for 12-16 ft breakers
today (8-12ft for NYC beachfront), which combined with elevated
water levels, will likely result in widespread dune erosion and
scattered overwashes.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for December 18th...
EWR...64/1937
BDR...61/1937
NYC...63/1964
LGA...63/2006
JFK...64/1984
ISP...59/1984

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ071-
     079>081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ074-
     075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ072-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ006-
     104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-338-340-
     345.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ332-350-353-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ335.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP/DR
MARINE...JC/JP/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...