000
FXUS61 KOKX 191205
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
705 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves through later today, followed by high
pressure into Wednesday. Another cold front pushes through by early
Thursday, with sprawling high pressure then slowly building into the
area for the remainder of the week. The high will remain in control
for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few rain and snow showers remain possible along an approaching
boundary for western sections this morning and thus have
maintained minimal PoPs here. Colder air continues to rush in
from the west, thus cannot rule out some snow showers across far
western sections for early this morning. Later this morning the
mid levels will continue to dry out, thus it should remain dry
with plenty of strat-cu, especially through mid day.
The mid and upper level trough axis pushes through later in the
day. This will help aid in strat-cu coverage for much of the day.
A NW wind will continue through the day with a pressure
gradient in place between the departing low well to the north,
and high pressure to the southwest. The WNW flow ushers in a
more seasonable air mass for this time of year. Temperatures
will be a good 15 to 20 degrees colder than yesterday with lower
and middle 40s, but the wind making if feel more like the 30s.
By tonight with the trough axis swinging to the east and
ridging working in, especially at the mid levels, look for
mainly clear skies. The winds will diminish further resulting in
seasonably cold temperatures with a colder air mass
established. Lows will be primarily in the 20s, with perhaps a
few lower 30s in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A high pressure ridge works in on Wednesday providing mainly clear
skies. The winds will be lighter with temperatures remaining
seasonable, mainly in the lower and middle 40s for maxes. Another
seasonably chilly night for Wed night as temperatures will average
close to normal. A cold front approaches late Wed night and
moves through in all likelihood by early Thu morning. This will
reinforce the seasonably chilly air mass with a wind more out of
the north during the day Thursday. Temperatures will end up
perhaps a couple of degrees colder with daytime maxes likely in
the lower 40s for much of the area, with the breeze making if
feel more like the 30s throughout the day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*Key Highlights*
*Dry conditions with quiet weather through the weekend.
*Seasonable temperatures with a slight warm up over the weekend and
into early next week.
Models and their respective ensemble systems are in general
agreement with large scale ridging over the eastern CONUS through
Saturday. At the surface, a sprawling 1034mb surface high builds
east, to the south of the area by midweek and into next weekend.
Under the predominant northwest flow aloft, temperatures will remain
seasonable.
By Saturday, the upper flow flattens somewhat as a fast moving
shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. The system looks to stay
mostly to our north, where the better chance for any precipitation
will remain along with the better forcing and lift. At this point,
just some increased cloud cover on Saturday into Sunday morning
without any mention of precip locally.
Thereafter, broad upper ridging and weak high pressure return for
the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. Ceilings may occasionally go MVFR for KHPN/KSWF early this
afternoon.
Veering winds become W after 12Z, increasing to 10-15kt G20-25kt,
becoming NW in the afternoon. Wind gusts will gradually
diminish in the evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Chance of brief MVFR cigs midday.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft advisories will continue through today for eastern most
LI Sound east of Orient due to elevated seas. Small craft gusts will
also continue on the ocean for today, with only a few occasional
small craft gusts for the near shore waters. Small craft advisories
will continue on the ocean waters through Wednesday, and likely will
have to be extended with seas staying elevated through Friday night
along with wind gusts also meeting SCA thresholds. Thereafter, The
forecast then shows a decline in these ocean seas to sub-SCA
conditions by Saturday afternoon. For the non-ocean waters, mainly
below SCA conditions are forecast for the much of the marine long
term period, with the possible exception of Thursday evening, as
parts of the non-ocean waters are forecast to have some marginal SCA
level gusts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Residual river flooding will linger into today and tonight for a few
of the larger stem rivers. Afterwards, no hydrologic impacts are
expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DBR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JE/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DBR