000
FXUS61 KOKX 191716
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1216 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves through this afternoon. High pressure then
builds in through the middle of the week and will remain in
control through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this afternoon. Overall skies will be partly
cloudy. However, there will be some brief periods of mostly
cloudy conditions mainly north and west of the NYC metro.

The mid and upper level trough axis pushes through later in the
day. NW wind will continue with a pressure gradient in place
between the departing low well to the north, and high pressure
to the southwest. Temperatures will be a good 15 to 20 degrees
colder than Monday with lower and middle 40s, but the wind will
make it feel more like the 30s.

Mainly clear skies are expected tonight with middle level
ridging building in and the trough axis moving to the east. The
winds will diminish further resulting in seasonably cold
temperatures with a colder air mass established. Lows will be
primarily in the 20s, with perhaps a few lower 30s in the NYC
metro.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A high pressure ridge works in on Wednesday providing mainly clear
skies. The winds will be lighter with temperatures remaining
seasonable, mainly in the lower and middle 40s for maxes. Another
seasonably chilly night for Wed night as temperatures will average
close to normal. A cold front approaches late Wed night and
moves through in all likelihood by early Thu morning. This will
reinforce the seasonably chilly air mass with a wind more out of
the north during the day Thursday. Temperatures will end up
perhaps a couple of degrees colder with daytime maxes likely in
the lower 40s for much of the area, with the breeze making if
feel more like the 30s throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*Key Highlights*

*Dry conditions with quiet weather through the weekend.

*Seasonable temperatures with a slight warm up over the weekend and
into early next week.


Models and their respective ensemble systems are in general
agreement with large scale ridging over the eastern CONUS through
Saturday. At the surface, a sprawling 1034mb surface high builds
east, to the south of the area by midweek and into next weekend.
Under the predominant northwest flow aloft, temperatures will remain
seasonable.

By Saturday, the upper flow flattens somewhat as a fast moving
shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. The system looks to stay
mostly to our north, where the better chance for any precipitation
will remain along with the better forcing and lift. At this point,
just some increased cloud cover on Saturday into Sunday morning
without any mention of precip locally.

Thereafter, broad upper ridging and weak high pressure return for
the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. Ceilings may occasionally go MVFR for KHPN/KSWF early this
afternoon.

Northwesterly winds have become or will shortly become 10-15kt
G20-25kt. Wind gusts will gradually diminish in the evening.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance of brief MVFR cigs midday.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday through Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Small craft advisories will continue through this evening for
eastern most LI Sound east of Orient due to elevated seas. Small
craft gusts will also continue on the ocean, with only a few
occasional small craft gusts for the near shore waters. Small
craft advisories will continue on the ocean waters through
Wednesday, and likely will have to be extended with seas staying
elevated through Friday night along with wind gusts also
meeting SCA thresholds. Thereafter, The forecast then shows a
decline in these ocean seas to sub-SCA conditions by Saturday
afternoon. For the non-ocean waters, mainly below SCA conditions
are forecast for the much of the marine long term period, with
the possible exception of Thursday evening, as parts of the non-
ocean waters are forecast to have some marginal SCA level
gusts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Residual river flooding will linger into tonight for a few of
the larger stem rivers. Afterwards, no hydrologic impacts are
expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DBR
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR/BR
MARINE...JE/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DBR