000
FXUS61 KOKX 201702
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1202 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in the area today as a weak cold front moves
through Thursday morning. High pressure will remain the dominant
feature through the weekend. The high departs east of the area
Christmas Day into Tuesday of next week. A frontal system begins to
approach from the west on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments for
dewpoints to account for current observations as they were
forecasted higher than what is currently being observed.
A high pressure ridge works in today providing mainly
clear skies. The winds will be lighter than it has been as of
late with temperatures remaining seasonable, mainly in the lower
and middle 40s for maxes. Another seasonably chilly night for
tonight as temperatures will average close to normal. Some high
and mid level clouds will approach and move in tonight in
advance of a cold front. The cold front moves through in all
likelihood by early Thu morning. This will reinforce the
seasonably chilly air mass into the day on Thursday. Followed
closely the NBM, but with only some local adjustments with night
time temps.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Thursday in the wake of a cold front the winds will have more of
a northerly component. Temperatures will end up perhaps a couple of
degrees colder with daytime maxes likely in the upper 30s and lower
40s, with the breeze making if feel more like the lower and middle
30s throughout the day. For Thursday night skies will be completely
clear on a lighter north wind. Temperatures will drop below normal
and it will be one of the coldest nights thus far. Wind chills will
likely get down into teens, to perhaps as cold as 10 across
a few interior locations. Followed closely the NBM, but with
only some local adjustments with night time temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Looking at the consensus of large scale numerical weather prediction
models, 250mb height and winds depict strong westerly jet across
Mexico and into Gulf Coast Friday into early next week. The models
depict this subtropical jet to be relatively the strongest for next
Tuesday. The local region stays in between the subtropical and polar
jet. The 250mb height pattern does not get too amplified across the
local area.
Surveying the large scale numerical weather prediction models for
the mid levels, the local area has ridging to begin the period
through Friday night. Then the mid levels depict a shortwave trough
moving in Saturday through Saturday night. Shortwave departs
thereafter with ridging resuming Sunday into early next week.
The consensus of large scale numerical weather prediction models
also conveys a dominance of surface high pressure Friday and Friday
night. This will be followed by a relative slight weakness trend
with the high pressure for the weekend. Then, high pressure
strengthens and builds back in for late Sunday into early Monday.
High pressure then departs to the east for Monday into Tuesday of
next week.
A frontal system will be approaching the area towards the end of the
forecast period, next Tuesday but timing is quite uncertain as is
the overall forecast for next Tuesday. Therefore forecast confidence
will be low for next Tuesday.
The weather during the long term forecast period will have dry
conditions through the weekend and much of Christmas Day. The
deterministic GFS and Canadian models show some light precipitation
across parts of the region within the Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night. However, NBM does not show any precipitation, not
until a 90th percentile is selected for the 24hr precipitation
forecast. So, POPs are only near 10 percent at most for
precipitation for this rain and/or snow shower activity. This is not
enough POPs to show up in the forecast and keeping consistent with
surrounding offices also keeping POPs near or less than 10 percent
as well as keeping consistent with the previously issued forecast,
kept this dry solution for the local forecast region. Only expecting
an increase in clouds with the shortwave passage and brief weakness
in the surface pressure field for the weekend.
Late Monday night is when any POPs appear in the forecast, a slight
chance for rain showers ahead of the next frontal system. The
chances for rain showers increase next Tuesday. The low level winds
are forecast to be more southwest Monday into Tuesday, allowing for
a warm enough airmass to keep the precipitation type rain.
Temperatures in the long term forecast trend from slightly colder
than normal to warmer than normal. Departures from normal stay less
than 10 degrees for much of the long term period but next Monday
night and next Tuesday, forecast temperatures could be pretty close
to 10 degrees above normal values.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control.
VFR. NW winds around 10kt through tonight, veering N Thursday mid
to late morning at 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday aftn: N gusts 20-25kt.
Thursday night through Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The small craft advisory has been allowed to expire for the
eastern LI Sound as swells have abated. Small craft advisories
remain in effect for the ocean waters through Thursday, with
small craft seas likely to continue through Thursday night and
into a portion of Friday. A period of small craft gusts is
possible for the nearshore waters tonight and into Thursday
morning as a cold front moves through.
High pressure will then continue to build and as the pressure
gradient weakens look for sub small craft conditions to return to
the ocean by Friday night and into the weekend. Ocean seas will be
closer to 3 ft during the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is still lingering flooding along the Passaic River (warnings
handled by WFO PHI). Otherwise, no additional hydrologic impacts are
expected through Monday. Another storm system may impact the area
with rain towards Tuesday, but hydrologic impacts do not appear
significant at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A long period SE to E swell with 5 to 6 ft ocean waves may
contribute to a few locations along the south shore to touch or get
close to minor coastal flood benchmarks for the late Thursday night
/ early Friday morning high tide cycle. Depending on how the
upcoming tides perform, coastal flood statements may be needed for
the late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JM
NEAR TERM...JE/BR
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/JM
HYDROLOGY...JE/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...