discussion on 2023-12-20

000
FXUS61 KOKX 202251
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
551 PM EST Wed Dec 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A weak cold front moves through Thursday morning. Otherwise, high
pressure will remain the dominant feature through the weekend.
The high departs east of the area early next week. A frontal
system could impact the region late Tuesday into next Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast largely remains on track this evening. Updated to
increase sky cover a bit with a deck of mid level clouds in the
vicinity of the NYC metro on NW. These clouds should slowly
diminish through the evening.

Surface high pressure continues to build in tonight with a
ridge to our west. A cold front will be approaching and pass
late at night into Thursday morning. Other than some clouds
early this evening, skies should be mostly clear to allow for
ample radiational cooling, bringing lows near seasonable tonight
in the low-30s to mid-20s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains through Thursday night, allowing mostly clear
skies to stay put. A cold front is expected to push through Thursday
morning, reinforcing colder and drier air into the region with a
north wind. The morning cold front will prevent any significant
diurnal heating Thursday afternoon with highs likely only five to
ten degrees above Thursday morning lows. Highs in the mid-30s to
near 40 are expected. Breezy north winds will result in it feeling
more like the low-30s to upper-20s.

As dewpoints fall with cooler air settling in, much colder air is
expected to settle in Thursday night with lows in the mid-teens to
mid-20s with the NYC metro in the upper-20s. A few interior areas
may even drop as low as 10 degrees, though currently forecasting the
lowest temps at 14 degrees.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The overall forecast thinking has not changed over the last 24 hours
Friday through the middle of next week.

*Key Highlights*

*Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday through Monday.

*The next chance of precipitation exists towards the middle of next
week.

*Temperatures will start out below normal on Friday before trending
above normal by Sunday through the middle of next week.

The large scale pattern will be characterized by mid level ridging
Friday into Saturday. The model consensus indicates a progressive
shortwave moving across the northeast Saturday night into early
Sunday. There are hints of some light precip with the shortwave
passage, but lift is very weak with the system. NBM brings in a
slight chance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Think this is
reasonable given the weak lift and limited moisture. The main
sensible weather change with the shortwave will be to bring
increased cloud cover Saturday into early Sunday. Ridging then
returns Sunday into early next week. High pressure will largely be
in control at the surface Friday through the weekend.

The aforementioned ridging will likely remain over the eastern
seaboard on Monday with the next amplified shortwave taking shape
over the central states. The model consensus has the ridging moving
offshore by Tuesday with the shortwave and its associated frontal
system approaching from the west. The system may then impact the
area late Tuesday into Wednesday. There are still many factors that
are yet to be resolved by the modeling given the time range
including the amplitude of the trough as and exact timing. However,
given the large scale synoptic pattern, any precipitation will be in
the form of rain. The system currently does not look as impactful as
the recent storm. There could be a period of rain at some point
during the middle of next week.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control.

VFR. NW winds around 10kt through tonight, veering N Thursday mid
to late morning at 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday aftn: N gusts 20-25kt.
Thursday night through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Thursday night on for
ocean waters for w aves 5-7 feet, although wind gusts are just below
SCA criteria at 20-24 kts.

Lingering E-ESE swells Friday morning may lead to 5 ft seas over the
ocean. The swells look to subside through Friday with sub-SCA
conditions likely on all waters Friday night into the weekend. High
pressure remains in control to start next week leading to sub-SCA
conditions.

.HYDROLOGY...
There is still lingering flooding along the Passaic River (warnings
handled by WFO PHI), Housatonic River (warnings handled by WFO
ALY), and Connecticut River (warnings handled by WFO BOX).
Otherwise, no additional hydrologic impacts are
expected through Monday. The next frontal system may bring a period
of rain later Tuesday into Wednesday, but hydrologic impacts are not
expected at this time.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A long period E-ESE swells may contribute to a few locations along
the south shore back bays touching or getting close to minor coastal
flood benchmarks for the late Thursday night/ early Friday morning
high tide cycle. Coastal flood statements may be needed for these
locations if the higher end of the forecast spread is realized.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...