000
FXUS61 KOKX 212307
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
607 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be in control through Saturday. An
unorganized low pressure moves across the area Saturday night
into Sunday morning. High pressure then reestablishes itself
Sunday afternoon into Monday before moving offshore on Tuesday.
Low pressure and its associated frontal system will likely
impact the area Tuesday night into the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast on track this evening. Winds will continue to lighten
this evening. High pressure to the north will help reinforce
colder air in the region tonight with clear skies. Lows are
expected to be in the low-20s/upper teens for most. The NYC
metro will be be drop into the upper-20s while far interior
areas may see mid-teens. These temperatures are only a few
degrees to 5 degrees below normal, but still some of the coldest
we have seen thus far this season.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Look for the drier stretch of weather to continue with high
pressure spreading down into New England. After plenty of
sunshine, some high clouds begin to streak during the afternoon
and evening as the 500 mb ridge axis moves over the area.
Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s, despite
sunshine.
Clouds begin to increase Friday night in advance of an
approaching mid level shortwave. The timing of the advance of
mid level clouds will ultimately determine how much radiational
cooling takes place, and thus how low temperatures ultimately
get. Either way, a seasonably cold night takes place with lows
in the 20s to lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The forecast in the extended has not changed too much over the
last 24 hours.
*Key Points*
* Mainly dry conditions expected this weekend through Christmas
Day.
* Gradual warming trend this weekend through the middle of next
week.
* A rain event is becoming more likely Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There remains uncertainty on exact timing and
rainfall amounts. The system at this time does not appear to
bring significant impacts to the region.
Weak middle level ridging is expected to move offshore on Saturday.
A broad shortwave quickly approaches Saturday night into early
Sunday. This will help weaken the surface high pressure and allow
a disorganized low to pass across New England by Sunday morning
and then quickly offshore thereafter. The modeling continues to
hint at some very light QPF amounts under weak lift and limited
moisture. It is not out of the question for a few locations to
see some light precip Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Thermal profiles are marginal for any wintry precip and
soundings indicate limited ice nucleation aloft. Temperatures
should largely stay above freezing due to no fresh cold air
source, light SW flow, and increasing clouds late Saturday into
Saturday night. However, cannot completely rule out portions of
western Orange County getting close to freezing, so a localized
occurrence of light freezing rain cannot be ruled out.
Probabilities are very low and feel its best to watch trends in
the next day before including mention of freezing rain in Orange
County in the HWO. Otherwise, any precip that falls elsewhere
will be in the form of sprinkles or light rain showers. It
should be emphasized that probabilities for measurable precip
remain very low, generally 20 percent. The system moves east of
the area later Sunday with high pressure reestablishing itself
into early next week.
Ridging builds over the eastern seaboard Monday and then moves
offshore on Tuesday ahead of an amplifying shortwave trough over
the central states. The parent low tracks towards the Great
Lakes on Tuesday with its associated frontal system approaching
through Tuesday night. The global deterministic guidance and
ensembles differ on whether or not there will be secondary
development along the Middle Atlantic/northeast on Wednesday.
NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch of rain in any 12 hour
period with this event are around 10 percent and it has been
relatively similar over the last few cycles. This would give
some confidence that impacts from rainfall should be limited
with this event. The models also have timing differences that
are a result on how the tough evolves aloft. Used NBM likely
PoPs late Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is high confidence
that any precip will be in the form of rain with the parent low
tracking up into the Great Lakes, driving warmer air up into
the northeast. Differences on the models increase further with
the evolution of the upper trough. Some of the global guidance
hints at the trough becoming an upper/closed low Thursday or by
the end of the week, which could start a cooling trend towards
the end of the year.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control.
VFR. N winds around 10 kt through the first half of tonight.
Winds then diminish further with light N-NE winds through
Friday morning before becoming variable in direction in the
afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts possible through 03z tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night through Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night-Sunday: VFR, with possible MVFR at times.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mostly VFR. Chance of rain and sub-VFR late
day/nighttime.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight for
the ocean waters for waves 5-7 feet. Wind gusts have remained
below 25 kts.
Lingering E-ESE swells Friday morning may lead to 5 ft seas over the
ocean. The swells look to subside through Friday with sub-SCA
conditions likely on all waters Friday night.
The pressure gradient over the waters will remain weak this weekend
through next Tuesday leading to conditions below SCA levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There is still lingering flooding along the Passaic River (warnings
handled by WFO PHI), Housatonic River (warnings handled by WFO ALY),
and Connecticut River (warnings handled by WFO BOX). Otherwise, no
additional hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday.
Widespread rain is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
impacts, if any, are uncertain at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A long period E swell may bring water levels close to minor flooding
benchmarks for the south shore back bays of Nassau for early Friday
morning high tide. Guidance has continue to trend lower and it
appears water levels should remain below minor benchmarks.
Statements are not anticipated at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...