000
FXUS61 KOKX 221433
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
933 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds from the north today and pushes offshore
to begin the weekend. A weakening warm front approaches Saturday
night and lifts north on Sunday. High pressure then
reestablishes itself late Sunday into Monday before moving
offshore on Tuesday. A frontal system will likely affect the
area Tuesday night into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Look for the drier stretch of weather to continue with high pressure
building and spreading down from the north. After plenty of
sunshine, more in the way of high clouds and some mid level clouds
streak in during this afternoon and this evening as the 500 mb
ridge axis approaches. The high clouds will be noticeable further
west across the area for portions of the day. Temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 30s today with a dry Canadian air
mass in place despite a good amount of sunshine.

More of an increase in clouds takes place tonight, more so late with
the passage of the mid and upper level ridge axis. The timing of the
advance of mid level clouds will ultimately determine how much
radiational cooling takes place, and thus how low temperatures
ultimately get. Either way, a seasonably cold night takes place with
consensus guidance utilized with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure offshore will continue to linger throughout the
weekend. A dampening shortwave will approach from the west, thus
look for more in the way of clouds, especially mid level clouds. A
light southerly flow begins with high pressure further offshore.
Therefore temperatures should rebound and actually get a few degrees
above normal, with mainly lower 40s across far northern areas, with
middle and upper 40s elsewhere.

For Saturday night skies will be mostly cloudy as the weakening
shortwave begins to make it way in. The weakening of the shortwave
shows up more at the 700 mb level. It will be difficult to moisten
up the column enough to get any appreciable precipitation. BUFKIT
soundings continue to show pockets of drier air at various levels
in the lower half of the column. Thus a few light showers, or
even sprinkles / drizzle remains possible. Overall there will be
little lift and the warm front off to the west appears to
experience frontolysis / weakening, and thus precip amounts will
be quite low to non-existent for later Saturday night into
Sunday.

For Sunday what is left of the warm front dissipates and lifts north
of the area. A milder Pacific based air mass moves in on a westerly
flow behind the lifting out system. Temperatures should remain a few
degrees above normal despite some cloud cover. Most places should
get into the middle and upper 40s for daytime maxes. Have followed
NBM and consensus guidance closely, with Low end Chance to
Slight Chance PoPs for late Saturday night into Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast in the extended has not changed too much over the
last 24 hours.

*Key Points*

* Dry conditions expected for Christmas Day.

* Above normal temps early to mid week.

* A progressive rain event likely Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
  there remains significant model spread on rain and wind details.
  At this point the probability of this being a high impact event is
  very low.

Complex upper air pattern across CONUS over the next several days as
a train of northern stream shortwaves moving through southern Canada
interact with a closed upper low coming into the western US today.
The general outcome of these interactions is development of a deep
central US trough early next week sliding into the eastern US by mid-
week. There is quite a bit of model spread on the details of this
trough, particularly intensity and location of the closed low or
lows over the Great lakes area, anchoring this trough.

At the surface, general agreement on a primary area of low pressure
developing over the Central US and tracking into the Great lakes
early to mid week, with its associated frontal system approaching
the area late Tuesday and working through Wed into Wed Night. Quite
a bit of model spread on intensity of primary low and potential
development of secondary intensifying low along the coastal plain
(tied to the eventual closed low evolution), which manifests in
varying solutions of rain and wind details.

NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch of rain in a 12 hour
period remain at or below 10 percent. With that said, model
solutions with quicker secondary development along the coastal plain
(00z GFS) do indicate potential for over 1" of rain in 12 hrs with
deep lift of a gulf/subtropical moisture feed (+2 STD PWATS).
Solutions with later and/or weaker secondary development (00Z ECMWF)
indicate a lighter event. With recent back to back rainfall events,
streamflows and soil moisture will likely continue to run above
normal during this time, so will bear watching. NBM probs of 40kt
gusts (wind advisory) are below 5%, with even stronger 00Z GFS
solution depicting only a marginal signal for strong winds.

Models differences increase further with the evolution of the upper
trough for late week into weekend. This could continue an unsettled
pattern with a gradual cooling trend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A weakening
area of low pressure approaches from the northwest Saturday night.

VFR. Light N-NE winds this morning, becoming light and variable in
aft/eve. Light S/SE winds developing late Sat AM.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Most likely direction would be E/NE less than 5 kt for PM push.

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR possible, with isolated -SHRA/sprinkles.
Low prob for -FZRA for KSWF late Sat Night/Sun AM.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Becoming MVFR or lower late, increasing likelihood for
rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub small craft conditions prevail with ocean seas averaging
around 3 feet Saturday, and closer to 2 ft on Sunday.

Sub SCA conds will continue through Tuesday as high pressure
slowly slides east through the waters. Next chance for SCA for
the ocean and possibly all waters comes Tue Night into midweek
with a frontal system affecting the waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is still lingering flooding along the Passaic River (warnings
handled by WFO PHI), Housatonic River (warnings handled by WFO ALY),
and Connecticut River (warnings handled by WFO BOX). Otherwise,
no hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday.

Rain is likely during the Tuesday night - Wednesday night time
period, but low predictability remains on rainfall amounts and
therefore hydrologic impacts at this time. Our streamflows and
soil moisture will likely continue to run above normal during
this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DR/NV
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV