000
FXUS61 KOKX 281255
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass to the south and east of the area through
tonight, then just east of Nova Scotia on Friday. A broad area
of elongated low pressure will extend to the west of the low,
lifting slowly across the Northeast through Saturday. High pressure
will then start to build in for the second half of the weekend
and into the first few days of the new year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The back edge of moderate to occasionally heavy rain has worked
across central LI and south central CT. Latest water vapor
imagery continues to show strong difluent flow aloft between
multiple jet streaks. This area of enhanced lift will gradually
weaken as it translates east this morning. An additional 0.50
to 0,75 is still possible across eastern LI into portions of
southern CT.

River flood warnings remain in effect for forecast points along
the Saddle and Ramapo Rivers. There are also several non-
forecast points along rivers and streams across NE NJ and SE NY
that are above minor flood. These areas are under a flood
advisory. Water levels will generally recede through the day as
heavy rainfall has passed to the east of these locations.

In addition, a secondary low along the NJ coast has ramped up NE
winds along the coast with KJFK up to 30 mph. These gusts should
be brief and may work east along the coast this morning.

For this afternoon, there is still a chance of light rain
and/or drizzle with weak low-level lift and dry mid levels.

Temperatures will fluctuate little today, topping out in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain gloomy, with low stratus, mist, and
occasional light rain with the closed low off to west, and
several spokes of energy rotating around it. Maintained chance
PoPs this afternoon and then increase back to likely overnight
as a trough of low pressure lifts across the area from south to
north QPF will be light with minimal additional hydro concerns.
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies persist.

Temperatures remain well above normal, about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for late December. Lows overnight will only
manage to fall into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term and stuck close to
the NBM for this update.

*Key Points*

* Rain chances continue Friday and into early Saturday, before
  drying out on Sunday and into New Year`s Day.

* A cooldown to more seasonable temperatures Saturday through
  Wednesday.

Large-scale upper level troughing remains in places through much of
the end of the week and into the weekend. This is paired with
surface waves of low pressure and troughs that will likely make for
a continued unsettled end of the week and beginning of the weekend.

A mid-level vorticity max rounds the base of a trough over the Ohio
Valley into the Southeast US. This forces a more recognizable low
pressure south of the area off of the East Coast Friday night and
into Saturday. The surface low pressure likely quickly merges with
the departing low to the northeast resulting in mainly a chance for
showers through Saturday morning. As the low departs, slight
subsidence in its wake will dry out the mid-levels and likely shut
off precipitation into Sunday.

Though an upper level trough remains in place with mid-level energy
sheared throughout it, some surface ridging to the south may nose
into the area on Sunday and into Monday with mainly dry conditions.
Global models diverge on how they handle another round of mid-level
energy approaching from the west, embedded in the trough. It may
develop a quickly developing low pressure to the south of it but
with little blocking downstream, the low may quickly move offshore
with minimal if any impact to the area. As of now, kept it dry
through much of the beginning of next week, but subsequent updates
will need to be watched for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure approaches this morning and eventually moves east
of Long Island later today.

The back edge of the steady rain is currently moving through
central terminals (KBDR and KISP) and will come to an end by
around 13Z for these locations, and later as you head east,
with an ending time of around 16Z for KGON. Thereafter, more
rain showers are forecast to develop during the day, late this
evening, so carried VCSH after the back edge of steady rain
moves through, then a period of -RA after 00Z Friday. Highest
chances are for western and northern terminals.

IFR to high end LIFR conditions are expected to continue for
most terminals. Cigs and or vsby may briefly improve to MVFR/VFR
for the next few hours before falling back to IFR or lower
later this morning. Improvement back to MVFR/VFR will occur late
in the TAF period, but this may be optimistic by a few hours,
and may occur later than is currently forecast.

Winds generally ENE 5-10 kt during the TAF period, becoming more
northerly late in the TAF period.

Gusts of 25 to 30 kt may continue over the next couple of hours,
mainly for the metro terminals, but should then diminish,
after 15Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Fluctuation between categories possible. Timing of LIFR and IFR
could vary a few hours from TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Friday: MVFR possible with chance of showers. Light WSW to W
winds.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. W winds 10-15kt G20kt. Gusts subside at
night.

Sunday: VFR. W winds.

Monday: Mainly VFR.  W / NW winds G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NE gusts this morning may occasionally hit 25 kt as low
pressure passes near or just east of the ocean waters.

A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters due to a building
SE swell associated with low pressure passing to the south and
east today. Seas are expected to build to 4 to 7 ft by early
this evening. Seas will then gradually lower tonight into Friday
as winds become westerly and low pressure east of New England
lifts up into the north Atlantic. Elsewhere, sub SCA conditions
are expected through Friday.

Marginal SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Saturday
morning. SCA conds become likely over the eastern ocean zones
with developing low pressure to the south late Saturday into
Sunday, with 5-7ft seas. Sub SCA conditions return by late
Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor flooding along a few quick responding rivers in NE NJ is
likely to continue this morning. Otherwise, the heavy rain
has shifted east across eastern LI and southern CT, where an
additional 0.50 to 0.75" is possible. River flooding warnings
are also in effect for forecast points along the Saddle and
Ramapo Rivers. This water levels will likely recede below flood
stage later this afternoon.

There are no hydrologic impacts expected tonight through early
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding now looks more likely later this morning
with possible impacts for vulnerable coastal communities. This
is associated with a passing low pressure system with onshore
flow and an astronomically high tide. A coastal flood advisory
remains in effect for the the south shore of Nassau and Queens,
with tidal departures of between 1.3 and 1.8ft. High tide peaks
from about 7-10am. Statements are in effect for parts of
Brooklyn and southwestern Suffolk, where minor benchmarks are
not expected to be reached, but some inundation (less than
0.5ft) is possible during high tide.

Elsewhere, coastal flood statements have been issued for
the SW CT coastline on the Western Sound. Tidal departures of
1.25-1.50 ft are needed for minor flooding, which is possible
during this afternoon`s high tide between about noon and 4pm.
Localized minor flooding is possible in these areas.

The threat for dune erosion appears to be low and isolated with
this event.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ178-
     179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JM/JP
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...