000
FXUS61 KOKX 281444
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
944 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass to the south and east of the area through
tonight, then just east of Nova Scotia on Friday. A broad area
of elongated low pressure will extend to the west of the low,
lifting slowly across the Northeast through Saturday. High pressure
will then start to build in for the second half of the weekend
and into the first few days of the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A 1000 mb surface low off Atlantic City gradually passes to the
south and east today. The back edge of moderate to locally
heavy rain continues to advance east across eastern LI and
southeastern CT, and should push east of the region by early
afternoon. Up to an additional half inch is possible in these
areas, before the steadiest tapers. Back to the west, conditions
remain largely dry into this afternoon, though spotty light
rain or drizzle is possible at times.
River flood warnings remain in effect for forecast points along
the Saddle and Ramapo Rivers. Water levels will generally
recede through the day as heavy rainfall has passed to the east
of these locations.
For later today, a chance of light rain and/or drizzle continues
with weak low-level lift and dry mid levels. CAMs indicate these
spotty showers increase in coverage this evening, though QPF
appears light, mainly under a tenth of an inch.
Temperatures will fluctuate little today, topping out in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain gloomy, with low stratus, mist, and
occasional light rain with the closed low off to west, and
several spokes of energy rotating around it. Maintained chance
PoPs this afternoon and then increase back to likely overnight
as a trough of low pressure lifts across the area from south to
north QPF will be light with minimal additional hydro concerns.
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies persist.
Temperatures remain well above normal, about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for late December. Lows overnight will only
manage to fall into the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term and stuck close to
the NBM for this update.
*Key Points*
* Rain chances continue Friday and into early Saturday, before
drying out on Sunday and into New Year`s Day.
* A cooldown to more seasonable temperatures Saturday through
Wednesday.
Large-scale upper level troughing remains in places through much of
the end of the week and into the weekend. This is paired with
surface waves of low pressure and troughs that will likely make for
a continued unsettled end of the week and beginning of the weekend.
A mid-level vorticity max rounds the base of a trough over the Ohio
Valley into the Southeast US. This forces a more recognizable low
pressure south of the area off of the East Coast Friday night and
into Saturday. The surface low pressure likely quickly merges with
the departing low to the northeast resulting in mainly a chance for
showers through Saturday morning. As the low departs, slight
subsidence in its wake will dry out the mid-levels and likely shut
off precipitation into Sunday.
Though an upper level trough remains in place with mid-level energy
sheared throughout it, some surface ridging to the south may nose
into the area on Sunday and into Monday with mainly dry conditions.
Global models diverge on how they handle another round of mid-level
energy approaching from the west, embedded in the trough. It may
develop a quickly developing low pressure to the south of it but
with little blocking downstream, the low may quickly move offshore
with minimal if any impact to the area. As of now, kept it dry
through much of the beginning of next week, but subsequent updates
will need to be watched for any changes.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passing south of the terminals this morning will
slide east of the region late this afternoon and tonight.
The back edge of the steady rain is currently moving through
central terminals (KBDR and KISP). While some drier air has
worked in the the NYC terminals, more rain showers are expected
to develop during the day and late this evening. Will continue
keep the VCSH after the steadiest of the rain ends and also have
a -RA after 00Z Friday. Highest chances for precip this evening are
for western and northern terminals.
IFR to high end LIFR conditions are expected to continue for
most terminals. Cigs and or vsby may briefly improve to MVFR/VFR
for the next few hours before falling back to IFR or lower
later this morning. Improvement back to MVFR/VFR will occur late
in the TAF period, but this may be optimistic by a few hours,
and may occur later than is currently forecast.
Winds generally ENE 5-10 kt during the TAF period, becoming more
northerly late in the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for changing flight categories. Timing of
LIFR and IFR could vary a few hours from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Friday: MVFR possible with chance of showers. Light WSW to W
winds.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. W winds 10-15kt G20kt. Gusts subside at
night.
Sunday: VFR. W winds.
Monday: Mainly VFR. W / NW winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
NE gusts this morning may occasionally hit 25 kt as low
pressure passes near or just east of the ocean waters.
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters due to a building
SE swell associated with low pressure passing to the south and
east today. Seas are expected to build to 4 to 7 ft by early
this evening. Seas will then gradually lower tonight into Friday
as winds become westerly and low pressure east of New England
lifts up into the north Atlantic. Elsewhere, sub SCA conditions
are expected through Friday.
Marginal SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Saturday
morning. SCA conds become likely over the eastern ocean zones
with developing low pressure to the south late Saturday into
Sunday, with 5-7ft seas. Sub SCA conditions return by late
Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor flooding along a few quick responding rivers in NE NJ is
likely to continue this morning. Otherwise, the heavy rain
has shifted east across eastern LI and southern CT, where an
additional half inch is possible. River flooding warnings are
also in effect for forecast points along the Saddle and Ramapo
Rivers. This water levels will likely recede below flood stage
later this afternoon.
There are no hydrologic impacts expected tonight through early
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor coastal flooding is occurring in vulnerable coastal
locations of southern Queens and Nassau this morning. This is
associated with a passing low pressure system with onshore flow
and an astronomically high tide. A coastal flood advisory
remains in effect here with tidal departures of between 1.3 and
1.8ft. Water levels should begin falling after 15Z or so.
Statements are in effect for parts of Brooklyn and southwestern
Suffolk, where minor benchmarks are not expected to be reached,
but some inundation (less than 0.5ft) is possible.
Elsewhere, coastal flood statements are in place for the SW CT
coastline on the Western Sound. Tidal departures of 1.25-1.50 ft
are needed for minor flooding, which is possible during this
afternoon`s high tide between about noon and 4pm. Localized
minor flooding is possible in these areas.
The threat for dune erosion appears to be low and isolated with
this event.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BC/JP
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...