000
FXUS61 KOKX 281751
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1251 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes east of the area into tonight, then just
off the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday. A broad area of
elongated low pressure will extend to the west of the low,
lifting slowly across the Northeast through Saturday. High
pressure will then start to build in for the second half of the
weekend and into the first few days of the new year.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The steadiest of the rain has come to an end, with some lingering
light rain across eastern LI and SE CT at 17Z. After this
pushes east over the next hour or two, overcast skies persist
into this evening, with only a few spotty sprinkles around as a
1000 mb surface low due south of Montauk gradually passes to the
east.

With the exception of a few elevated rivers and streams in NE
NJ, the flood threat has ended and additional hydrological
issues are not expected. River flood warnings remain in effect
for forecast points along the Saddle and Ramapo Rivers, though
waters are beginning to recede here as well.

Temperatures will fluctuate little today, topping out in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Additional forcing coupled with abundant low level moisture
should allow for additional light rain or drizzle to develop and
move through much of the region this evening into tonight. CAMs
show increase in coverage primarily after 00Z Fri, though
additional QPF appears light, mainly under a tenth of an inch.
Areas of fog, locally dense, develops as well and may persist
into Friday morning.

Conditions remain gloomy, with low stratus, mist, and
occasional light rain with the closed low off to west, and
several spokes of energy rotating around it. Maintained chance
PoPs this afternoon and then increase back to likely overnight
as a trough of low pressure lifts across the area from south to
north QPF will be light with minimal additional hydro concerns.
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies persist.

Temperatures remain well above normal, about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for late December. Lows overnight will only
manage to fall into the 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term and stuck close to
the NBM for this update.

*Key Points*

* Rain chances continue Friday and into early Saturday, before
  drying out on Sunday and into New Year`s Day.

* A cooldown to more seasonable temperatures Saturday through
  Wednesday.

Large-scale upper level troughing remains in places through much of
the end of the week and into the weekend. This is paired with
surface waves of low pressure and troughs that will likely make for
a continued unsettled end of the week and beginning of the weekend.

A mid-level vorticity max rounds the base of a trough over the Ohio
Valley into the Southeast US. This forces a more recognizable low
pressure south of the area off of the East Coast Friday night and
into Saturday. The surface low pressure likely quickly merges with
the departing low to the northeast resulting in mainly a chance for
showers through Saturday morning. As the low departs, slight
subsidence in its wake will dry out the mid-levels and likely shut
off precipitation into Sunday.

Though an upper level trough remains in place with mid-level energy
sheared throughout it, some surface ridging to the south may nose
into the area on Sunday and into Monday with mainly dry conditions.
Global models diverge on how they handle another round of mid-level
energy approaching from the west, embedded in the trough. It may
develop a quickly developing low pressure to the south of it but
with little blocking downstream, the low may quickly move offshore
with minimal if any impact to the area. As of now, kept it dry
through much of the beginning of next week, but subsequent updates
will need to be watched for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure passing south of the terminals this morning will
slide east of the region late this afternoon and tonight.

The steadiest of the rain has ended, with just some light rain
remaining across the eastern terminals. Most TAF sites are IFR
and are expected to remain IFR through the rest of the day and
through the night. A few eastern terminals have improved to
MVFR/VFR in the rain, however expecting IFR conditions to return
there soon. Feel fairly confident on IFR cigs through early
tomorrow morning, however some uncertainty with respect to
vsbys. Will generally stick with MVFR vsbys, but can not rule
out IFR or lower vsbys developing, especially after midnight.
Also, expect periods of drizzle or light rain showers overnight.
Any light precip should end by 12z.

Expect improvement Friday morning to MVFR. Thinking that we
could see MVFR for much of the day Friday, however can not rule
out a return to VFR earlier than forecast.

Winds generally ENE 5-10 kt. Winds do diminish a bit tonight and
in some spots become light and variable. Winds become more W-SW
on Friday late morning/early afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for changing flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Friday afternoon: MVFR possible with chance of showers. Light
WSW to W winds.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. W winds 10-15kt G20kt. Gusts subside at
night.

Sunday: VFR. W winds.

Monday and Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NE gusts this morning may occasionally hit 25 kt as low
pressure passes near or just east of the ocean waters.

A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters due to a building
SE swell associated with low pressure passing to the south and
east today. Seas are expected to build to 4 to 7 ft by early
this evening. Seas will then gradually lower tonight into Friday
as winds become westerly and low pressure east of New England
lifts up into the north Atlantic. Elsewhere, sub SCA conditions
are expected through Friday.

Marginal SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Saturday
morning. SCA conds become likely over the eastern ocean zones
with developing low pressure to the south late Saturday into
Sunday, with 5-7ft seas. Sub SCA conditions return by late
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Minor flooding along a few quick responding rivers in NE NJ
continues, though water levels are receding. River flooding
warnings remain in effect for forecast points along the Saddle
and Ramapo Rivers, but flooding here should come to an end later
today or this evening.

Thereafter, no hydrologic impacts expected tonight through early
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Given high astronomical tides, Coastal Flood Statements may be
needed for vulnerable areas of southern Queens and Nassau Co,
and perhaps SW CT, for Friday high tide cycle. Up to a half foot
of inundation is possible here.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...