000
FXUS61 KOKX 282345
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
645 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes east of the area tonight, and into the Canadian
Maritimes on Friday. A broad area of elongated low pressure will
extend to the west of the low, lifting slowly across the Northeast
through Saturday. High pressure will then start to build in for
the second half of the weekend and into the first few days of
the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The 1000 mb surface low on the leading edge of a deep closed
low trough situated over the Midwest is now east of the 40/70
benchmark. The forecast is on track this evening.
The steady rain has come to an end regionwide, though low levels
remain saturated, and overcast skies persist through this evening.
The flood threat has ended and further hydrological issues are not
expected.
Additional forcing coupled with the abundant low level moisture
should allow for patchy light rain or drizzle to develop and move
through the region this evening into tonight. CAMs show an increase
in coverage primarily after 00Z Fri, though additional QPF appears
light, under a tenth of an inch. Areas of fog, locally dense, may
develop as well and may persist into Friday morning. Temperatures
remain mild tonight, only falling a few degrees into the 40s by
daybreak.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Large-scale upper level troughing remains in places into the first
half of the weekend. Gloomy conditions persist as this trough swings
east, and spokes of energy rotate around it.
A mid-level vort max rounds the base of the trough and spawns a weak
surface low off the East Coast Friday night into Saturday. This may
help to instigate a few showers or sprinkles overnight into Saturday
morning. As the low departs, slight subsidence in its wake will
dry out the mid- levels and likely shut off any further
precipitation.
Temperatures remain seasonably mild through the period; highs in the
upper 40 to mid 50s Friday, and mid to upper 40s on Saturday. Sub-
freezing temperatures return Sat night outside the urban metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term and stuck close to the
NBM for this update.
*Key Points*
* High pressure builds in this weekend with mostly dry conditions
through much of next week.
* A cooldown to more seasonable temperatures Sunday through Thursday.
Mid-level ridging and a weak surface high pressure system build in on
Sunday with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions.
Some mid-level energy approaches the area into Monday morning but
shears out on its approach in an increasingly positively tilted
trough. In addition to some enhanced cloud cover, a slight chance of
showers will be possible, mainly for coastal areas on New Years Day.
This disturbance shifts out of the area by Tuesday with mid-level
ridging once again taking over. A stronger surface high pressure system
builds in from the southwest Tuesday night and into the middle of the
week with mainly dry conditions and mostly clear skies. A NW flow will
allow for continued cold air advection to bring temperatures to a more
seasonable level. Highs will generally be in the low to middle 40s with
lows in the middle 20s to the middle 30s.
Global models hint at another system potentially developing late in the
week and possibly into next weekend with both southern and northern
branch energy but the timing, interactions, and ultimate surface low
development remains very uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will move east of the region tonight.
Most TAF sites are IFR or lower and are expected to remain that way
through at least the morning push. High confidence of IFR cigs,
however there is some uncertainty with respect to vsbys. Will
generally stick with MVFR vsbys, but can not rule out IFR or lower
vsbys developing, especially after midnight. Also, expect periods of
drizzle or light rain showers overnight. Any light precip should end
by 12z.
Expect improvement Friday morning to MVFR. Thinking that we
could see MVFR for much of the day Friday, however can not rule
out a return to VFR earlier than forecast.
Winds diminish a bit tonight and in some spots become light and
variable. Winds become more W-SW on Friday late morning/early
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for changing flight categories. Low confidence
on timing of any improvement on Friday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Mainly VFR. W winds 10-15kt G20kt. Gusts subside at night.
Sunday: VFR. W winds.
Monday and Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters due to elevated swells
associated with low pressure passing east tonight. Seas 4 to 7 ft
gradually lower through late Friday AM, and winds become westerly as
the low tracks north. Ocean seas rise once again and W/NW gusts
could exceed 25 kt for a period Saturday into early Sunday.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters from late Sunday
through the middle of the week with high pressure overhead.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels along a couple rivers in NE NJ may continue to remain
near minor flood stages into this evening before receding.
Otherwise, there are no hydrologic impacts expected through early
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Given high astronomical tides, Coastal Flood Statements were issued
for the vulnerable areas of southern Queens, southern Nassau and
southern Fairfield Counties for Friday`s high tide cycle. Up to a
half foot of inundation is possible here.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MW
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...