000
FXUS61 KOKX 291220
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
720 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the east of Nova Scotia today, while a
broad area of low pressure extends back to the west across the
Northeast. The latter of which will link up with another area of
low pressure east of New England on Saturday. Both lows track
northeast and away from the area Saturday night, while high
pressure builds in from the west into Sunday. A weak trough of
low pressure will then pass through Sunday night into Monday,
followed by high pressure. Low pressure may impact the area
towards the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast update includes minor changes to initialize with
latest conditions.

The combination of low-level moisture and a weak surface trough
hanging back from low pressure east of New England will result
in patchy fog/drizzle this morning. However, expect gradual
improvement by late morning into this afternoon as winds become
WSW. Still though, clouds will be slow to lift due to an
abundance of low-level moisture. The best chance for some sun
will be across LI and the NY/NJ metro area, with more clouds as
one works north due to a broad area of low pressure extending
back across the Northeast from the offshore low.

Aloft, an upper low tracks across the Mid Atlantic states today,
starting to shear out to the NE as a northern branch trough
tracks across eastern Canada. The latter of which will lift
into northern New England by Saturday, getting absorbed by the
northern branch system. Thus, clouds and chances of sprinkles
will remain for tonight, but for the most part not expecting
measurable precipitation.

Highs today will remain well above normal, in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. A few locations may even get into the mid 50s around
the NYC metro. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower
40s. These temperatures are about 10 degrees above normal, yet
on a cooling trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Multiple streams in the upper levels come together across the
Northeast on Saturday with multiple low pressure centers
tracking along and to the east of the New England coast. The
forecast area will reside to the south of these lows, with a
strengthening west flow and a drier air mass moving into the
area. This will also allow for continued weak cold advection
through the weekend. For the most part, expect dry conditions,
but sprinkles are still a possibility Saturday, especially
north and west of the NYC.

High pressure then builds in both aloft and at the surface
Saturday night into Sunday, ahead of an amplifying shortwave
trough tracking across the Great Lakes. Highs Saturday will be
in the mid and upper 40s, dropping a few more degrees as we head
into Sunday. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 20s well
inland, to the 30s along this coast. While cooler, it will still
be several degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term and stuck close to the
NBM for this update.

*Key Points*

* High pressure builds in this weekend with mostly dry conditions
  through much of next week.

* A cooldown to more seasonable temperatures through Thursday.

Some mid-level energy approaches the area into Monday morning but
shears out on its approach in an increasingly positively tilted
trough. In addition to some enhanced cloud cover, a slight chance of
snow or rain/snow showers will be possible late Sunday night north
and west of New York City, while there will be a slight chance for
rain showers mainly for coastal areas on New Years Day.

This disturbance shifts out of the area by Monday night with mid-
level ridging once again taking over. A stronger surface high
pressure system builds in from the southwest Tuesday and into the
middle of the week with mainly dry conditions and mostly clear
skies. A NW flow will allow for continued cold air advection to
bring temperatures to a more seasonable level, but still generally
above normal. Highs will generally be in the low to middle 40s with
lows in the middle 20s to the middle 30s.

Global models hint at another system potentially developing late in
the week and possibly into next weekend with both southern and
northern branch energy but the timing, interactions, and ultimate
surface low development remains very uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will move east of the region as an upper level trough
sets up over the area today and tonight.

Most TAF sites are LIFR to IFR and are expected to remain that way
through at least the morning push. Also, expect periods of
drizzle or light rain early this morning. Any light precip
should end by 15Z.

Expect improvement later this morning to MVFR. Thinking that we
could see MVFR for much of the morning, with a return to VFR
by around 17Z. However, some guidance suggests a return to VFR
as late as 20Z.

Light and variable winds become more W-SW later this
morning/early afternoon, then W by this evening. Outlying
terminals may go light and variable.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for changing flight categories. Low confidence
on timing of any improvement on today.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR. W winds 10-15kt G20kt. Gusts subside at
night.

Sunday: VFR. W winds.

Monday and Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect today for the ocean waters east Fire
Island Inlet due to elevated swells associated with low
pressure east of New England. This low will track to the east of
Nova Scotia later today. Seas will drop below 5 ft from west to
east this morning into this afternoon.

SCA conditions will quickly return on Saturday in a
strengthening west flow with gusts to around 25 kt. However,
high pressure will be build in late Saturday night into Sunday
with diminishing winds and seas.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters from late Sunday
night through the middle of the week with high pressure
overhead.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the vulnerable
areas of southern Queens, southern Nassau and southern Fairfield
Counties for today`s high tide cycle.Up to a half foot of
inundation is possible at these locations. This will be the last
high tide cycle of concern.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...