000
FXUS61 KOKX 291740
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1240 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the east of Nova Scotia today, while a
broad area of low pressure extends back to the west across the
Northeast. The latter of which will link up with another area of
low pressure east of New England on Saturday. Both lows track
northeast and away from the area Saturday night, while high
pressure builds in from the west into Sunday. A weak trough of
low pressure will then pass through Sunday night into Monday,
followed by high pressure. Low pressure may impact the area
towards the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor updates to temperatures and cloud cover this update. The
forecast remains on track.

Latest GOES-16 imagery and available sfc obs showing clearing
line advancing through NYC and northeast NJ attm as a weak sfc
trough moves through. Isolated sprinkles are still occurring
out ahead of this feature across CT, LoHud and eastern LI.
Expect gradual improvement across the CWA by late morning into
this afternoon as winds become WSW as the trough heads offshore.


Aloft, an upper low tracks across the Mid Atlantic states
today, starting to shear out to the NE as a northern branch
trough tracks across eastern Canada. The latter of which will
lift into northern New England by Saturday, getting absorbed by
the northern branch system. Thus, clouds and chances of
sprinkles will remain for tonight, but for the most part not
expecting measurable precipitation.

Highs today will remain well above normal, in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. A few locations may even get into the mid 50s around
the NYC metro. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower
40s. These temperatures are about 10 degrees above normal, yet
on a cooling trend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Multiple streams in the upper levels come together across the
Northeast on Saturday with multiple low pressure centers
tracking along and to the east of the New England coast. The
forecast area will reside to the south of these lows, with a
strengthening west flow and a drier air mass moving into the
area. This will also allow for continued weak cold advection
through the weekend. For the most part, expect dry conditions,
but sprinkles are still a possibility Saturday, especially
north and west of the NYC.

High pressure then builds in both aloft and at the surface
Saturday night into Sunday, ahead of an amplifying shortwave
trough tracking across the Great Lakes. Highs Saturday will be
in the mid and upper 40s, dropping a few more degrees as we head
into Sunday. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 20s well
inland, to the 30s along this coast. While cooler, it will still
be several degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term and stuck close to the
NBM for this update.

*Key Points*

* High pressure builds in this weekend with mostly dry conditions
  through much of next week.

* A cooldown to more seasonable temperatures through Thursday.

Some mid-level energy approaches the area into Monday morning but
shears out on its approach in an increasingly positively tilted
trough. In addition to some enhanced cloud cover, a slight chance of
snow or rain/snow showers will be possible late Sunday night north
and west of New York City, while there will be a slight chance for
rain showers mainly for coastal areas on New Years Day.

This disturbance shifts out of the area by Monday night with mid-
level ridging once again taking over. A stronger surface high
pressure system builds in from the southwest Tuesday and into the
middle of the week with mainly dry conditions and mostly clear
skies. A NW flow will allow for continued cold air advection to
bring temperatures to a more seasonable level, but still generally
above normal. Highs will generally be in the low to middle 40s with
lows in the middle 20s to the middle 30s.

Global models hint at another system potentially developing late in
the week and possibly into next weekend with both southern and
northern branch energy but the timing, interactions, and ultimate
surface low development remains very uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes north and east of the region through Saturday.

Gradual improvement to VFR into late day as drier air works
into the region. City terminals have been fluctuating between
MVFR and VFR cigs, added TEMPO to highlight potential for this
persisting into late afternoon. CT terminals may go into early
evening before improvement.

W or SW flow becomes predominantly westerly with speeds at or
under 10 kt through early this evening. Outlying terminals may
go light and variable tonight. Westerly flow continues on
Saturday, speeds increase 10 to 15 kt with gusts near 20 kt in
the late AM and afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories. Timing of
improvement may be off by a couple of hours.

Brief MVFR cigs possible thru the TAF period.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday PM: VFR. W winds 10-15kt G20kt. Gusts subside at
night.

Sunday: VFR. W winds.

Monday thru Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect today for the ocean waters east Fire
Island Inlet due to elevated swells associated with low
pressure east of New England. This low will track to the east of
Nova Scotia later today. Seas will drop below 5 ft from west to
east this morning into this afternoon.

SCA conditions will quickly return on Saturday in a
strengthening west flow with gusts to around 25 kt. However,
high pressure will be build in late Saturday night into Sunday
with diminishing winds and seas.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters from late Sunday
night through the middle of the week with high pressure
overhead.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for southern
Fairfield County for this afternoon`s high tide cycle. Up to a
half foot of inundation is possible. This will be the last high
tide cycle of concern.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DBR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...