000
FXUS61 KOKX 292113
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
413 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A series of weak low pressures over the northeast will drag a weak
cold front through the area on Saturday. A weak low pressure trough
will pass through Sunday night into Monday, followed by high
pressure sliding to the south during mid week. Low pressure will
impact the area on Thursday as it passes to the south and east,
and then heads toward Nova Scotia on Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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GOES-16 6.9um WV channel depicts broad upper low spinning across
western KY this afternoon, slowly working to the east with a
slug of dry air punching north. A shortwave was also located
over the Great Lakes diving to the south. At the sfc, weak low
pressure systems were located across Quebec and the DelMarVa
while the weak trough that moved through the CWA earlier today
heads east.

Skies have cleared this afternoon from west to east with the
departing sfc trough. Cloud cover remains across parts of eastern CT
and the Lower Hudson Valley this afternoon, and may linger into the
evening hours. The drizzle/sprinkles from earlier today have moved
north and east of the area as of 3pm.

The area resides between systems now with weak CAA under WSW flow.
Expecting mostly dry conditions into the overnight, as the surface
low over DelMarVa heads northeast but remains south of the area. The
area also remains south of the surface low over New England. Thus
cannot rule out a few isolated sprinkles/showers toward daybreak
across interior CT or the LoHud, but do not expect any precip to be
widespread or measurable. Lows tonight in the upper 30s to near 40
for the coastal areas, and low to mid 30s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Westerly flow and weak cold air advection will continue through
the weekend. For the most part, expect dry conditions, but
sprinkles are still a possibility early Saturday morning,
especially north and west of the NYC and across eastern CT.
Winds may gust occasionally Saturday afternoon 20-25mph as the
pressure gradient remains up with the departing sfc lows,
especially across coastal areas.

Ridging aloft and sfc high pressure then build in for Saturday
evening with mainly dry conditions expected. Lows on Saturday night
under NW flow expected to be in the upper 20s across the interior
and eastern LI, and low to mid 30s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

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Weak ridging sfc and aloft will pass across on Sunday, followed
quickly by a weakening, positively tilted upper trough Sunday night
into Monday. Some light snow showers could impact far wrn portions
of the CWA (Orange and W Passaic) with little if any accumulation,
and cannot rule out rain showers during daytime Mon mainly near the
coast as the upper forcing sinks to the SE. The day should start off
mostly cloudy, then as this forcing slides SE some afternoon
sunshine is possible especially inland. Temps on Mon will be near or
slightly above normal, with highs 40-45.

As high pressure slides across Tue-Wed, fair wx expected, with high
temps still slightly above normal in the 40s. Low pressure moving up
the coast should then bring rain on Thu, with temps marginal enough
at the start to allow perhaps for a rain/snow mix NW of NYC per NBM
temps. Windy and somewhat colder conditions expected for Friday as
the offshore storm intensifies on its way toward Nova Scotia on
Friday, with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s if not colder, as a
stronger storm could pull even down colder and keep highs in the 30s
throughout.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure passes north and east of the region through Saturday.

Most terminals have improved to VFR as drier air works into the
region, and should largely remain so through the TAF period.
Exceptions are KSWF and KGON, which may hold out until late this
evening or tonight before improvement.

Westerly flow with speeds at or under 10 kt through early this
evening, lightening further tonight. Outlying terminals may go light
and variable. West winds persist on Saturday, as speeds increase 10
to 15 kt with gusts toward 20 kt in the late AM and afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR cigs possible at times thru Sat PM.

Isolated gusts to 25 kt on Saturday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday PM: VFR. W winds 10-15kt G20kt. Gusts subside at night.

Sunday: VFR. W winds.

Monday thru Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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The Small Craft Advisory in effect for ocean waters east Fire Island
Inlet was allowed to expire as seas dropped below 5 ft. SCA
conditions will then return Saturday in a strengthening west
flow with gusts to around 25 kt. Winds will then diminish late
Saturday night.

Mainly quiet conditions expected from Sunday through Wed night, with
seas below 5 ft and wind gusts mostly less than 25 kt. After a low
pressure trough passes on Mon and high pressure slides to the south
during mid week , cannot entirely rule out some gusts close to 25 kt
at times on the ocean in WNW flow Mon night-Tue night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected through mid next week.
Thereafter, NBM QPF for low passing offshore on Thu is less than
1/2 inch. However, it would not take too much of a NW shift in
the low track to bring higher amounts closer to an inch into the
area.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR
NEAR TERM...BG/DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR