000
FXUS61 KOKX 300239
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
939 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak lows over the Northeast will eventually drag a
weak cold front through on Saturday. High pressure will
briefly return on Sunday, then a weak low pressure trough will
pass through Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure
sliding to the south during mid week. Low pressure will impact
the area on Thursday as it passes to the south and east, and
then heads toward Nova Scotia on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Have updated mainly to include scattered showers/sprinkles
across the area overnight as current activity on radar expands
and spreads E to ESE.
GOES-16 6.9um WV channel depicts a broad upper low spinning
across nrn MS/AL this evening, slowly working to the east with
a slug of dry air punching north. A shortwave trough was also
located over the upper Great Lakes, diving to the south. At the
sfc, weak low pressure systems were located across Quebec and
the DelMarVa.
Lows tonight in the upper 30s to near 40 for the coastal areas,
and in the lower/mid 30s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Westerly flow and weak cold air advection will continue through
the weekend. For the most part, expect dry conditions, but
sprinkles are still a possibility early Saturday morning,
especially north and west of the NYC and across eastern CT.
Winds may gust occasionally Saturday afternoon 20-25mph as the
pressure gradient remains up with the departing sfc lows,
especially across coastal areas.
Ridging aloft and sfc high pressure then build in for Saturday
evening with mainly dry conditions expected. Lows on Saturday night
under NW flow expected to be in the upper 20s across the interior
and eastern LI, and low to mid 30s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak ridging sfc and aloft will pass across on Sunday, followed
quickly by a weakening, positively tilted upper trough Sunday night
into Monday. Some light snow showers could impact far wrn portions
of the CWA (Orange and W Passaic) with little if any accumulation,
and cannot rule out rain showers during daytime Mon mainly near the
coast as the upper forcing sinks to the SE. The day should start off
mostly cloudy, then as this forcing slides SE some afternoon
sunshine is possible especially inland. Temps on Mon will be near or
slightly above normal, with highs 40-45.
As high pressure slides across Tue-Wed, fair wx expected, with high
temps still slightly above normal in the 40s. Low pressure moving up
the coast should then bring rain on Thu, with temps marginal enough
at the start to allow perhaps for a rain/snow mix NW of NYC per NBM
temps. Windy and somewhat colder conditions expected for Friday as
the offshore storm intensifies on its way toward Nova Scotia on
Friday, with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s if not colder, as a
stronger storm could pull even down colder and keep highs in the 30s
throughout.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes north and east of the region through
Saturday. A cold front passes through the terminals late in the
TAF period.
VFR expected for most terminals through the TAF period with the
exception of KSWF and KGON. Some light showers possible through
about 06z this evening. The best chance is for KBDR and KGON.
Vsby expected to remain VFR in any rain.
Westerly flow with speeds under 10 kt through tonight. Outlying
terminals may go light and variable. West winds persist on
Saturday, as speeds increase 10 to 15 kt with gusts toward the
low 20s kt in the late morning and afternoon. A cold frontal
passage late in the TAF period brings winds around to 300.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR cigs can not be completely ruled out at times during
Saturday afternoon.
Isolated gusts to 25 kt on Saturday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain showers for NYC and
Long Island terminals.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA cond will return daytime Saturday in a strengthening W flow,
with gusts up to 25 kt and ocean seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds
and seas will then subside late Saturday night.
Mainly quiet conditions expected from Sunday through Wed night,
with seas below 5 ft and wind gusts mostly less than 25 kt.
After a low pressure trough passes on Mon and high pressure
slides to the south during mid week, cannot entirely rule out
gusts close to 25 kt at times on the ocean in WNW flow Mon
night-Tue night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through mid next week.
Thereafter, NBM QPF for low passing offshore on Thu is less than
1/2 inch, but it would not take too much of a NW shift in the
low track to bring higher amounts closer to an inch into the
area.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR
NEAR TERM...BG/DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR