000
FXUS61 KOKX 301743
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1243 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through late this afternoon into early this
evening. High pressure will briefly return on Sunday, then a
weak low pressure trough will pass through Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure over the Tennessee Valley will ridge
across the area on Tuesday and then pass to the south Wednesday.
A cold front approaches from the west Thursday, while a
developing low off the Mid Atlantic coast passes to the south
and east. The low will track to the east of the Canadian
Maritimes on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track with a mostly cloudy day. An upper level
trough and surface cold front approach, providing some weak
lift While it will remain mostly dry, a few light showers or
sprinkles are expected. Temperatures are warm enough for most
of the precipitation to be in the form of rain. Highs today
will be cooler than they have been, but still above normal, in
the 40s for the entire region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As the cold front pushes offshore, it will bring any
precipitation to and end. Again, only weak lift and only trace
rainfall amounts are expected. No snow is expected as it tracks
southeast and temperatures by this point will be too warm for
eastern areas. Skies will become clear tonight, and some
radiational cooling is expected. Lows in the middle to upper 20s
in those outlying areas, with low to middle 30s expected
elsewhere.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will pass across on
Sunday, followed quickly by a weakening, positively tilted upper
trough Sunday night. Some light snow showers could impact far
western portions of the CWA (Orange and W Passaic) with no
accumulation expected, and cannot rule out rain showers during
daytime Mon mainly near the coast as the upper forcing sinks to
the SE. But the system is moisture starved, so mainly dry
conditions are expected.
The day should start off mostly cloudy early Monday morning,
then as this forcing slides SE some breaks of sun is possible by
late morning, and partly skies by the afternoon. Temperatures
on Monday will be near or slightly above normal, with highs
40-45.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A progressive, yet somewhat amplified flow will be reside across the
lower 48, with potential interaction of the southern and northern
branches toward the end of the week. With the lack of any blocking
over the western Atlantic, the flow favors a storm track to the
south.
The 00Z globals and their ensembles have trended a bit farther east
with the offshore low Thursday into Friday with the forecast area
potentially on the outer fringe of the system. There remains a
chance of precipitation late Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly
in the form of rain, but possibly mixing with snow at the onset
north and west of NYC. High pressure will precede the system Tuesday
and Wednesday, followed by another area of high pressure building in
behind the low Thursday night into Friday.
Nearly seasonable temperatures to start will warm a bit into mid
week. Windy and colder conditions expected for Friday as the
offshore storm intensifies on its way toward Nova Scotia, with highs
in the mid and upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes north and east of the region today, dragging a
cold front through the area late this afternoon into early this
evening.
Mainly VFR today, but occasional MVFR ceilings are possible this
afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves across the
terminals. Spotty light rain showers an/or sprinkles also
cannot be entirely ruled out, though this is a low chance.
West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt, shifting to
the WNW late this afternoon into early this evening following
the cold frontal passage. Gusts may carry over into the early
evening, especially for the NYC and coastal terminals. W/NW
winds will then gradually diminish under 10 kt, then persist on
Sunday with speeds around 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.
Cessation of gusts may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday PM: Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR in snow flurries at KSWF
late.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in a sprinkles or a
brief shower.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain/snow showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA expected today in a strengthening W flow, with gusts up to
25 kt and ocean seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds and seas will
then subside late tonight into Sunday morning. Non ocean waters
may gust to 25 kt at times, but thinking this will be more
occasional, however, a short fused SCA may be needed if gusts
tend to be more frequent.
Sub-SCA conditions expected from Sunday afternoon through
Monday, with seas below 5 ft and wind gusts less than 25 kt.
Mainly quiet conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday with high
pressure passing to the south.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
Trends have been for low pressure Thursday to pass far enough to the
south and east to spare the area of significant precipitation.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW