000
FXUS61 KOKX 302017
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves east of the region tonight, followed by high
pressure on Sunday. A weak trough will pass through Sunday
night into Monday. High pressure then move into the area for the
middle of the week. A cold front moves across the area on
Thursday as low pressure off the Middle Atlantic coast passes to
the south and east. High pressure returns Friday into next
Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front continues to pushes offshore this evening. Any
leftover light rain showers or sprinkles associated with the
front will come to an end early. Behind the front, skies will
become clear and some radiational cooling is expected. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 20s away from NYC, low to
middle 30s closer to the NYC metro area.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will pass over the area
on Sunday with mostly sunny conditions. The ridging quickly
weakens Sunday night allowing another weak upper level shortwave
to approach from the west. Moisture once again is lacking with
this upper level trough, however can not rule out a few light
snow showers for the far western portions of the CWA (Orange and
W Passaic). No accumulation expected. Closer to the coast,
where its will be a little warmer cannot rule out a light rain
shower.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The upper trough remains over there region on Monday, with
mostly cloudy skies over the area. Surface high pressure
starting to build in from the west should keep conditions dry,
despite the cloud cover over the region.
The high continues to build closer to the region on Monday as
the upper trough moves east. Expect mostly sunny skies on
Tuesday. Highs both days will be in the lower to middle 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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There is no significant change to the extended forecast Tuesday
night through next Saturday. The NBM was largely used with this
update.
*Key Points*
*Mainly dry conditions are currently forecast.
*The latest model consensus continues to show low pressure passing
well to the south and east Thursday into Thursday night.
*Temperatures start out slightly above normal Wednesday and Thursday
before trending near seasonable levels Friday and Saturday.
A progressive, yet somewhat amplified flow will reside across the
lower 48. A weak ridge will be in place Tuesday night and Wednesday
with surface high pressure passing to our south. Still need to watch
for any interaction between the northern and southern streams on
Thursday. A northern stream shortwave will send a cold front towards
the east coast on Thursday. At the same time, low pressure is likely
to develop off the Middle Atlantic coast. The model consensus
continues to indicate phasing of the two streams occurring when the
low is further offshore. There are some ensemble members that dig
the northern stream more and allow for an earlier phase and the low
to intensify closer to the coast. This scenario could allow for
colder air to get involved with the system. However, this is
currently not favored by the large majority of the ensemble guidance
with probabilities highest for the low passing well south and east of
the area. The NBM gives about a 30-40 percent chance of measurable
precip (0.01" or higher) for the southern half of the area. If any
precip were to occur, it would mainly be in the form of rain, but
possibly mixed with some snow north and west of NYC.
The upper trough passes offshore Thursday night allowing high
pressure to build back into the area Friday into next Saturday.
Friday looks to be the coldest day of the this period with windy
conditions between the intensifying low by the Maritimes and
building high pressure to our south and west. Highs look to be in
the mid to upper 30s, but the breezy conditions will make it feel
colder.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure passes north and east of the region this evening, with
another approaching from the west on Sunday.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but brief MVFR cigs remain
possible late this afternoon. Any spotty light rain showers, mainly
for CT terminals, come to an end by 00Z Sun.
West winds 10 to 15 kt, gusts to around 20 kt, shifts to the WNW
early this evening. Flow gradually lightens this evening, with gusts
coming to an end by 03Z Sun or so. WNW flow persists on Sunday with
speeds around 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional MVFR cigs possible thru late day.
Cessation of gusts may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday PM: Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR in snow flurries at KSWF late.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in a sprinkles or a brief shower.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain/snow showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Small craft advisories remain up on the ocean waters til 6am Sunday
morning as seas remain at or above 5ft and winds gusts to near 25kt
behind a departing cold front.
Winds and seas fall below SCA levels Sunday through Tuesday as the
pressure gradient relaxes.
Mainly quiet conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday with high
pressure passing to the south. SCA conditions are possible Thursday
and Thursday night with low pressure passing offshore.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
Trends continue to be for low pressure Thursday to pass far enough
to the south and east to spare the area of significant precipitation.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS