000
FXUS61 KOKX 310135
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
835 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds over the area on Sunday. A weak low
pressure trough will pass through Sunday night into Monday,
followed again by high pressure for mid week. A cold front will
move across on Thursday as low pressure off the Mid Atlantic
coast passes to the southeast. High pressure will return Friday
into next Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with the cold front moving further
offshore. Any lingering light showers over the forks of LI will
end within the next few hours with dry conditions prevailing
overnight.
Mostly skies are expected overnight with some radiational
cooling. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s away from
NYC, low to middle 30s closer to the NYC metro area.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will pass over the area on
Sunday with mostly sunny conditions. The ridging quickly
weakens Sunday night allowing another weak upper level shortwave
to approach from the west. Moisture once again is lacking with
this upper level trough, however can not rule out a few light
snow showers for the far western portions of the CWA (Orange and
W Passaic). No accumulation expected. Closer to the coast,
where its will be a little warmer cannot rule out a light rain
shower.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper trough remains over there region on Monday, with
mostly cloudy skies over the area. Surface high pressure
starting to build in from the west should keep conditions dry,
despite the cloud cover over the region.
The high continues to build closer to the region on Monday as
the upper trough moves east. Expect mostly sunny skies on
Tuesday. Highs both days will be in the lower to middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is no significant change to the extended forecast Tuesday
night through next Saturday. The NBM was largely used with this
update.
*Key Points*
* Mainly dry conditions are currently forecast.
* The latest model consensus continues to show low pressure
passing well to the south and east Thursday into Thursday
night.
* Temperatures start out slightly above normal Wednesday and
Thursday before trending near seasonable levels Friday and
Saturday.
A progressive, yet somewhat amplified flow will reside across
the lower 48. A weak ridge will be in place Tuesday night and
Wednesday with surface high pressure passing to our south. Still
need to watch for any interaction between the northern and
southern streams on Thursday. A northern stream shortwave will
send a cold front towards the east coast on Thursday. At the
same time, low pressure is likely to develop off the Middle
Atlantic coast. The model consensus continues to indicate
phasing of the two streams occurring when the low is further
offshore. There are some ensemble members that dig the northern
stream more and allow for an earlier phase and the low to
intensify closer to the coast. This scenario could allow for
colder air to get involved with the system. However, this is
currently not favored by the large majority of the ensemble
guidance with probabilities highest for the low passing well
south and east of the area. The NBM gives about a 30-40 percent
chance of measurable precip (0.01" or higher) for the southern
half of the area. If any precip were to occur, it would mainly
be in the form of rain, but possibly mixed with some snow north
and west of NYC.
The upper trough passes offshore Thursday night allowing high
pressure to build back into the area Friday into next Saturday.
Friday looks to be the coldest day of the this period with windy
conditions between the intensifying low by the Maritimes and
building high pressure to our south and west. Highs look to be in
the mid to upper 30s, but the breezy conditions will make it feel
colder.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front moves to the east tonight, followed by high
pressure on Sunday.
VFR cond, with BKN cigs at or near the terminals scattering
this evening.
WNW winds either side of 10 kt this evening could gust briefly
to 15-20 kt at KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KHPN/KISP.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts 15-20 kt possible mainly before 03Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday night: Chance MVFR in snow flurries at KSWF late,
otherwise VFR.
Monday: Chance of brief MVFR cond with a brief rain shower or
sprinkle.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of
rain/snow showers.
Thursday night: Becoming VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters til 6 AM Sunday as
seas remain at or above 5 ft and winds gusts to near 25 kt
behind a departing cold front. Some 5-ft seas could linger E of
Moriches Inlet for a few more hours.
Winds and seas fall below SCA levels Sunday through Tuesday as
the pressure gradient relaxes.
Mainly quiet conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday with high
pressure passing to the south. SCA conditions are possible in NW
flow on the ocean, ern Sound, and the Long Island bays Thursday
night with low pressure passing offshore.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
Trends continue to be for low pressure Thursday to pass far
enough to the south and east to spare the area of significant
precipitation.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS