000
FXUS61 KOKX 311753
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1253 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure moves through the area today, followed
by a weak area of low pressure passing to the south and west
late tonight into Monday. High pressure then ridges into the
area from the southwest on Tuesday and passes offshore on
Wednesday. A dissipating cold front approaches from the west
Thursday, while a developing low off the Mid Atlantic coast
passes to the south and east. The low will track to the east of
the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure
through the first half of next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains mostly on track with the exception of cloud
cover which has remained persistent across much of the area.
Have increased cloud cover in this update across the area from
broken to scattered for the day, becoming broken for everyone
this evening.
An upper level ridge situated just to the west of the region will
move over the area today, while at the surface a weak area of high
pressure also moves over the area. Clouds will start to
increase in the afternoon (if we end up clearing out, which has
now been cut back from the forecast), especially for more
western areas, as the upper level ridging and surface high gives
way to an upper level trough and weakening surface low pressure
over the Great Lakes region.
Seasonably warm temperatures continue, with highs in the 40s for the
entire forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance in good agreement in showing this weakening low along
a frontal boundary passing well west and then south of the area late
tonight into Monday morning. Light overrunning moisture along a
warm front may allow for some light showers to work into
western portions of the forecast area, such as the Lower Hudson
Valley, northeast NJ, NYC, and western Long Island. However,
this system is moisture starved, and a trace to a few hundredths
of an inch of liquid equivalent is expected. Thermal profiles
show that all snow is more likely across the Lower Hudson
Valley, leading to light snow showers or flurries, while a
transition to light rain showers or a mix of light rain and
light snow as you head south into NYC and western Long Island.
No accumulation is expected.
Upper level trough sinks south of the area Monday night as high
pressure builds in at the surface from the southwest. This high will
be in control through the middle of the week and tranquil conditions
are expected Monday night through Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal Monday into
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There continues to be only be small changes in the extended
forecast form Tuesday night through next Saturday. The NBM
was largely used with this update.
*Key Points*
* Mainly dry conditions are currently forecast.
* The latest model consensus continues to show low pressure
passing far enough south and east Thursday into Thursday night
to spare the region significant winter precipitation.
* Temperatures start out slightly above normal Wednesday and
Thursday before trending to near or just below normal levels
Friday and Saturday.
A progressive, yet somewhat amplified flow will reside across the
lower 48. A weak ridge will be in place Tuesday night and Wednesday
with surface high pressure passing to our south. A northern stream
shortwave will send a cold front towards the east coast on Thursday,
which dissipates as the NW flow bridges across the boundary in
response to low pressure development off the Middle Atlantic
coast. The model consensus continues to indicate phasing of the
two streams occurring when the low is further offshore. This
should spare the region of a significant winter precipitation
event. There are still a few members showing phasing taking
place sooner with a low track closer to the coast. However, NBM
24h probabilities for 0.1" or higher of liquid only get as high
as 20 percent across far eastern LI and SE CT. If any precip
were to occur, it would mainly be in the form of rain, but
possibly mixed with some snow north and west of NYC.
The upper trough passes offshore Thursday night allowing high
pressure to build back into the area Friday into next Saturday.
Friday looks to be the coldest day of the this period with windy
conditions between the intensifying low by the Maritimes and
building high pressure to our south and west. Highs look to be in
the mid to upper 30s, but the breezy conditions will make it feel
colder.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A ridge of high pressure moves east with a weak area of low
pressure passing to the south and west late tonight into Monday.
VFR today. Cigs are BKN040 and should remain that way much of
the night. MVFR chances increase towards morning with the
approach of a weak low which will pass south and west of the
area. Can not rule out a brief shower or flurry, but coverage
remains too low to include in the TAF at this time.
WNW winds around 10 kt today will diminish this evening and
become light and variable overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two early Monday
morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: Any MVFR cigs becoming VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain/snow showers.
Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas of 5 ft may linger across the outer most eastern ocean zone
over the next hour or so, but much of the central and eastern ocean
zones have fallen below 5 ft, therefore the Small Craft Advisory
has been cancelled.
Seas have fallen below SCA criteria for the western ocean zone,
and the SCA was cancelled for that location. 5 ft seas continue
for the outer most portions of the central and eastern ocean
zones, so SCAs continue there through 6 am this morning.
Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions expected for the rest of today
through Tuesday as lack of a strong pressure gradient keeps
winds and seas below SCA criteria.
Quiet conditions will continue Wednesday with high pressure passing
to the south. SCA conditions are possible in a strengthening NW
Thursday night with low pressure passing offshore.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
Models continue to show good agreement with low pressure
Thursday passing far enough to the south and east to spare the
area of significant precipitation.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/BR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW