discussion on 2023-12-31

000
FXUS61 KOKX 312015
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
315 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A weak area of low pressure to our west moves south of us tonight
with frontal passage Monday morning. High pressure builds Monday
night into Tuesday. High pressure passes offshore Wednesday. A
dissipating cold front approaches from the west Thursday, while
a developing low off the Mid Atlantic coast passes to the south
and east. The low moves towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday
with high pressure building in through Saturday. Low pressure
may impact the region next Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mostly cloudy skies have been persistent today despite weak
subsidence and will hold tonight. A mid-level ridge moves offshore
tonight as a shortwave approaches from the west tonight. A surface
low with this shortwave will weaken and dissipate as it moves to
our south.

PWATs will be right around to just above average late tonight into
tomorrow morning for areas to the south and west, with slight chance
POPs across western and southern portions of the CWA late tonight
into tomorrow afternoon. Light snow showers/flurries are possible
late tonight and early tomorrow morning for some interior areas of
the Lower Hudson Valley, SW CT and NE NJ. Areas closer to the coast
such as coastal areas of NE NJ, NYC metro and SW CT may see a mix of
light snow/flurries and rain. The chance for snow versus rain will
be dependent upon how cold the air gets at the surface. Model
soundings indicate the entire column down to 950mb will be below
freezing tonight and tomorrow morning. No snow accumulations are
expected. By the afternoon, any remaining precip associated with the
low to our south will be rain along far southern coastal areas,
clearing by Monday evening.

Cloud cover will remain mostly cloudy due to the shortwave to our
south through the day on Monday. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid-
30s for most with NYC metro areas in the upper-30s and far interior
areas in the upper-20s. Highs will be in the mid/low-40s on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --A mid/upper-level ridge builds in with high pressure at the surface
Monday night into Tuesday to our southwest. Clouds will clear
overnight on Monday with sunny skies on Tuesday. Lows Monday and
Tuesday night will be in the mid-20s to low-30s while highs on
Tuesday will be slight cooler than Monday in the low-40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --There continues to be only be small changes in the extended forecast
from Wednesday into next weekend.

*Key Points*

* Mainly dry conditions are currently forecast through Saturday.
The latest model consensus continues to show low pressure passing
far enough south and east Thursday into Thursday night.

* Temperatures start out slightly above normal Wednesday and
Thursday before trending to near or just below normal levels
Friday into next weekend.

* Deterministic and ensemble solutions are hinting at a potential
low pressure next Saturday night and Sunday. There is low
confidence specific detail at this time due to the system being
about a week out.

A progressive, yet somewhat amplified flow will reside across the
lower 48 through next weekend. A weak ridge will be in place on
Wednesday with surface high pressure passing to our south. A
northern stream shortwave will then send a cold front towards the
east coast on Thursday, which dissipates as the NW flow bridges
across the boundary in response to low pressure development off the
Middle Atlantic coast. The model consensus continues to indicate
phasing of the two streams occurring when the low is further
offshore. This should spare the region most of the precipitation.
There are still a few members showing phasing taking place sooner
with a low track closer to the coast. There has been little change
with NBM 24h probabilities for 0.1" or higher of liquid with about
20 percent across far eastern LI and SE CT. If any precip were to
occur, it would mainly be in the form of rain, but possibly mixed
with some snow north and west of NYC.

The upper trough passes offshore Thursday night allowing the low to
track towards the Maritimes. High pressure will otherwise build back
into the area Friday/ Friday will be windy between the intensifying
low by the Maritimes and building high pressure to our south and
west. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 30s, but the breezy
conditions will make it feel colder.

The latest modeling is beginning to signal a confluent flow over the
northeast on Saturday. An amplified southern stream shortwave/low
pressure may then approach the Middle Atlantic/northeast for the
second half of next weekend. Specific details on timing, intensity,
PTYPES, winds, and precip amounts are unknown given that this is
about a week out.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure moves east with a weak area of low
pressure passing to the south and west late tonight into Monday.

VFR today. Cigs are BKN040 and should remain that way much of
the night. MVFR chances increase towards morning with the
approach of a weak low which will pass south and west of the
area. Can not rule out a brief shower or flurry, but coverage
remains too low to include in the TAF at this time.

WNW winds around 10 kt today will diminish this evening and
become light and variable overnight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two early Monday
morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: Any MVFR cigs becoming VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain/snow showers.

Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday night.

Conditions will remain below SCA levels on Wednesday with high
pressure passing to the south. SCA conditions are possible in a
strengthening NW flow Thursday night into Friday with low pressure
passing offshore.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS