discussion on 2023-12-31

000
FXUS61 KOKX 010026
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
726 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure to our west moves south of us tonight
with frontal passage Monday morning. High pressure builds Monday
night into Tuesday. High pressure passes offshore Wednesday. A
dissipating cold front approaches from the west Thursday, while
a developing low off the Mid Atlantic coast passes to the south
and east. The low moves towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday
with high pressure building in through Saturday. Low pressure
may impact the region next Sunday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast on track this evening. A mid-level ridge moves
offshore tonight as a shortwave and its associated cold front
approach from the west. A weak low along the front will move
across the area late tonight into early Monday morning.
approaches from the west tonight. A surface low with this
shortwave will weaken and dissipate as it moves to our south.

A few flurries/light snow showers are possible late tonight and
early tomorrow morning for some interior areas of the Lower
Hudson Valley, SW CT and NE NJ. Areas closer to the coast such
as coastal areas of NE NJ, NYC metro and SW CT may see a mix of
sprinkles/light rain and flurries. Temperatures may take some
time to fall overnight with cloud cover and limited cold
advection. However, dew points in the low to mid 20s should
help with some wet bulbing if precip develops. No snow
accumulation expected. A few sprinkles may persist near the
coast Monday morning. By the afternoon, the low should shift
further south with any lingering precip pushing further south
with clearing conditions Monday evening.

Mostly cloudy conditions should persist through Monday with the
shortwave. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid- 30s for most
with NYC metro areas in the upper-30s and far interior areas in
the upper-20s. Highs will be in the mid/low-40s on Monday.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid/upper-level ridge builds in with high pressure at the surface
Monday night into Tuesday to our southwest. Clouds will clear
overnight on Monday with sunny skies on Tuesday. Lows Monday and
Tuesday night will be in the mid-20s to low-30s while highs on
Tuesday will be slight cooler than Monday in the low-40s.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --There continues to be only be small changes in the extended forecast
from Wednesday into next weekend.

*Key Points*

* Mainly dry conditions are currently forecast through Saturday.
The latest model consensus continues to show low pressure passing
far enough south and east Thursday into Thursday night.

* Temperatures start out slightly above normal Wednesday and
Thursday before trending to near or just below normal levels
Friday into next weekend.

* Deterministic and ensemble solutions are hinting at a potential
low pressure next Saturday night and Sunday. There is low
confidence specific detail at this time due to the system being
about a week out.

A progressive, yet somewhat amplified flow will reside across the
lower 48 through next weekend. A weak ridge will be in place on
Wednesday with surface high pressure passing to our south. A
northern stream shortwave will then send a cold front towards the
east coast on Thursday, which dissipates as the NW flow bridges
across the boundary in response to low pressure development off the
Middle Atlantic coast. The model consensus continues to indicate
phasing of the two streams occurring when the low is further
offshore. This should spare the region most of the precipitation.
There are still a few members showing phasing taking place sooner
with a low track closer to the coast. There has been little change
with NBM 24h probabilities for 0.1" or higher of liquid with about
20 percent across far eastern LI and SE CT. If any precip were to
occur, it would mainly be in the form of rain, but possibly mixed
with some snow north and west of NYC.

The upper trough passes offshore Thursday night allowing the low to
track towards the Maritimes. High pressure will otherwise build back
into the area Friday/ Friday will be windy between the intensifying
low by the Maritimes and building high pressure to our south and
west. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 30s, but the breezy
conditions will make it feel colder.

The latest modeling is beginning to signal a confluent flow over the
northeast on Saturday. An amplified southern stream shortwave/low
pressure may then approach the Middle Atlantic/northeast for the
second half of next weekend. Specific details on timing, intensity,
precip types, winds, and precip amounts are unknown given that
this is about a week out.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak low pressure to the west will pass to the south tonight,
with a frontal passage Monday morning. High pressure will build
Monday night.

VFR, with lowering cigs late tonight into daytime Mon. MVFR
cigs are likely especially from the NYC metros north/west from
about 12Z-20Z, earlier at KEWR. Cannot rule out brief
flurries/sprinkles or at least virga from late tonight through
the morning, and have mentioned VCSH to highlight this.
Probabilities of measurable snow or rain remain quite low, no
higher than 20 percent.

Diminishing W-NW winds tonight should become light northerly at
the NYC metros by 12Z. This may take until late morning or early
afternoon farther east.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely to address timing of lowering cigs late tonight into
daytime Mon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain/snow showers.

Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt still possible for the AM push.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will lead to Sub-SCA conditions Monday
into Tuesday night. Conditions will remain below SCA levels on
Wednesday with high pressure passing to the south.

SCA conditions are possible in a strengthening NW flow Thursday
night into Friday with low pressure passing offshore.

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS