000
FXUS61 KOKX 010135
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
835 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak area of low pressure along a cold front moves through the
area early Monday morning. High pressure builds Monday night
into Tuesday. High pressure passes offshore Wednesday. A
dissipating cold front approaches from the west Thursday, while
a developing low off the Mid Atlantic coast passes to the south
and east. The low moves towards the Canadian Maritimes on Friday
with high pressure building in through Saturday. Low pressure
may impact the region next Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecast remains on track. A broad shortwave and its associated
cold front approach from the west into the overnight. A weak
low along the front will move across the area early Monday
morning.

The majority of the night will remain overcast. A few
flurries/light snow showers are possible late tonight and early
Monday morning. Temperatures may take some time to fall
overnight with cloud cover and limited cold advection. However,
dew points in the low to mid 20s should help with some wet
bulbing if precip develops. No snow accumulation expected. A few
sprinkles may persist near the coast Monday morning. By the
afternoon, the low should shift further south with any lingering
precip pushing further south with clearing conditions Monday
evening.

Mostly cloudy conditions should persist through Monday with the
shortwave. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s for most
with NYC metro areas in the upper 30s and far interior areas in
the upper 20s. Highs will be in the lower 40s on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A mid/upper-level ridge builds in with high pressure at the surface
Monday night into Tuesday to our southwest. Clouds will clear
overnight on Monday with sunny skies on Tuesday. Lows Monday and
Tuesday night will be in the mid 20s to low 30s while highs on
Tuesday will be slight cooler than Monday in the low 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There continues to be only be small changes in the extended forecast
from Wednesday into next weekend.

*Key Points*

* Mainly dry conditions are currently forecast through Saturday.
  The latest model consensus continues to show low pressure passing
  far enough south and east Thursday into Thursday night.

* Temperatures start out slightly above normal Wednesday and
  Thursday before trending to near or just below normal levels
  Friday into next weekend.

* Deterministic and ensemble solutions are hinting at a potential
  low pressure next Saturday night and Sunday. There is low
  confidence specific detail at this time due to the system being
  about a week out.

A progressive, yet somewhat amplified flow will reside across the
lower 48 through next weekend. A weak ridge will be in place on
Wednesday with surface high pressure passing to our south. A
northern stream shortwave will then send a cold front towards the
east coast on Thursday, which dissipates as the NW flow bridges
across the boundary in response to low pressure development off the
Middle Atlantic coast. The model consensus continues to indicate
phasing of the two streams occurring when the low is further
offshore. This should spare the region most of the precipitation.
There are still a few members showing phasing taking place sooner
with a low track closer to the coast. There has been little change
with NBM 24h probabilities for 0.1" or higher of liquid with about
20 percent across far eastern LI and SE CT. If any precip were to
occur, it would mainly be in the form of rain, but possibly mixed
with some snow north and west of NYC.

The upper trough passes offshore Thursday night allowing the low to
track towards the Maritimes. High pressure will otherwise build back
into the area Friday/ Friday will be windy between the intensifying
low by the Maritimes and building high pressure to our south and
west. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 30s, but the breezy
conditions will make it feel colder.

The latest modeling is beginning to signal a confluent flow over the
northeast on Saturday. An amplified southern stream shortwave/low
pressure may then approach the Middle Atlantic/northeast for the
second half of next weekend. Specific details on timing, intensity,
precip types, winds, and precip amounts are unknown given that
this is about a week out.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak low pressure to the west will pass to the south tonight,
with a frontal passage Monday morning. High pressure will build
Monday night.

VFR, with lowering cigs late tonight into daytime Mon. MVFR
cigs are likely especially from the NYC metros north/west from
about 12Z-20Z, earlier at KEWR. Cannot rule out brief
flurries/sprinkles or at least virga from late tonight through
the morning, and have mentioned VCSH to highlight this.
Probabilities of measurable snow or rain remain quite low, no
higher than 20 percent.


Diminishing W-NW winds tonight should become light northerly at
the NYC metros by 12Z. This may take until late morning or early
afternoon farther east.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely to address timing of lowering cigs late tonight into
daytime Mon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain/snow showers.

Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt still possible for the AM push.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will lead to Sub-SCA conditions Monday
into Tuesday night. Conditions will remain below SCA levels on
Wednesday with high pressure passing to the south.

SCA conditions are possible in a strengthening NW flow Thursday
night into Friday with low pressure passing offshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS