000
FXUS61 KOKX 011731
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1231 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak area of low pressure will slowly move south and east
into tonight. A ridge of high pressure will then build in from
the west late tonight into Tuesday, passing offshore Wednesday.
A dissipating cold front approaches from the west Wednesday
night, while a developing low off the Mid Atlantic coast passes
to the south and east on Thursday. The low moves towards the
Canadian Maritimes on Friday with high pressure building in
through Saturday. Low pressure may impact the region Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Showers this morning have now cleared with scattered clouds
across the region. Further clearing is still expected tonight.
The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made
to account for current observations and trends.
An upper trough will track across the area today, and then
offshore tonight. In response, a weak surface low has moved off
the Delmarva coast, working slowly south and east through
tonight. SKies will continue to clear from north to south
through this evening. Winds will become light northerly by this
afternoon.
Highs will top out from around 40 well inland to the lower and
mid 40s along the coast. This is slightly above normal. Under
clear skies tonight and light winds, lows will be close to
normal, ranging from the mid 20s inland, to the upper 20s/lower
30s along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the departing upper trough, a shortwave ridge and surface
high will build across the area on Tuesday, passing offshore on
Wednesday. Northerly winds will back around to the WNW during
this time, generally at 10 mph or less. Skies will be mainly
clear with some increase in clouds mainly late in the day
Wednesday ahead of an amplifying upper trough tracking across
the Great Lakes.
Temperatures Tuesday into Tuesday night will be close to
normal, but then warming a few degrees above normal for
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There continues to be only be small changes in the extended forecast
from Wednesday into next weekend.
*Key Points*
* Light precipitation is currently forecast on Thursday, mainly for
Long Island. The latest model consensus continues to show low
pressure passing far enough south and east Thursday into Thursday
night. Dry conditions expected for Friday and Saturday.
* Temperatures start out slightly above normal Thursday before
trending to near or just below normal levels Friday into next
weekend.
* Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to hint at a
potential low pressure next Saturday night and Sunday. There is
low confidence specific detail such as precipitation type at this
time due to the system being about a week out.
A progressive, yet somewhat amplified flow will reside across the
lower 48 through next weekend. A northern stream shortwave will send
a cold front towards the east coast Wednesday night, which will move
through late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. At the
same time, low pressure will develop off the mid-Atlantic Coast
Thursday and pass well south and east of the forecast area into
Thursday night. The model consensus continues to indicate phasing of
the two streams occurring when the low is further offshore. This
should spare the region most of the precipitation. There are still a
few members showing phasing taking place sooner with a low track
closer to the coast. NBM 24h probabilities for 0.1" or higher of
liquid equivalent now shows less than 10% across far eastern LI and
SE CT. If any precip were to occur, thermal profiles show that it
may be cold enough to start off as snow, then transition to a mix of
rain and snow, or changeover to all snow. However, with such light
precipitation amounts, and surface temperatures expected to be a few
degrees above freezing for much of the forecast area no snowfall is
expected to accumulate. The only exception might be across the Lower
Hudson Valley, non metro northeast New Jersey, and inland southwest
Connecticut, where a coating may occur in some areas.
The upper trough passes offshore Thursday allowing the low to track
towards the Maritimes. High pressure will otherwise build back into
the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Conditions during this
time frame will be windy between the intensifying low by the
Maritimes and building high pressure to our south and west. Highs
look to be in the mid to upper 30s, but the breezy conditions will
make it feel colder.
The latest modeling is beginning to signal a confluent flow over the
northeast on Saturday. An amplified southern stream shortwave/low
pressure may then approach the Middle Atlantic/northeast for the
second half of next weekend. Specific details on timing, intensity,
precip types, winds, and precip amounts are unknown given that this
is about a week out.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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weak low pressure will continue to pass south and east into
tonight.
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be from the
north at or below 10kt. By Tuesday afternoon, winds may become
more westerly.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Low chance of MVFR or lower in rain/snow showers.
Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt still possible for the AM push.
Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Wind and seas will remain below SCA levels through mid week as
weak low pressure passes to the south today followed by a surface
ridge building in late tonight into Tuesday. The ridge passes
offshore on Wednesday.
SCA conditions are likely in a strengthening NW flow late Thursday
into into Friday with low pressure passing offshore. Marginal gales
are possible Thursday night. Waves on the ocean build to 3 to 6
ft Thursday night into Friday. There is a possibility that
waves remain around 5 ft through Friday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW