000
FXUS61 KOKX 012020
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
320 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak area of low pressure will move south and east into tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will then build in from the west late
tonight into Tuesday, passing offshore Wednesday. A cold front moves
across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning as low
pressure passes well offshore. High pressure builds back over
the region on Friday and will remain in control into Saturday. A
storm system may impact the area Saturday night into Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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An upper-level trough pushes offshore tonight as a ridge noses in
from the north and west, allowing skies to further clear this
evening and tonight. Winds will remain light northerly this evening
and tonight.
Under clear skies tonight and light winds, lows will be close to
normal, ranging from the mid 20s inland, to the upper 20s/lower 30s
along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Behind the departing upper trough, a shortwave ridge and surface
high will build across the area on Tuesday, passing offshore on
Wednesday. Northerly winds will back around to the WNW during this
time, generally at 10 mph or less. Skies will be mainly clear with
some increase in scattered clouds early Wednesday morning, clearing
late morning. Scattered to broken skies redevelop Wednesday evening
ahead of an amplifying upper trough tracking across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures Tuesday into Tuesday night will be close to normal, but
then warming a few degrees above normal for Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A progressive, yet amplified flow pattern will persist Wednesday
night through the upcoming weekend. The potential exists for a storm
system to impact the area Saturday night into Sunday.
*Key Points*
* Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to signal a
storm system passing near the Middle Atlantic and Northeast
Saturday night into Sunday. It is much too early to get specific
with details on exact track, timing, potential precip types,
precip amounts, and winds.
* Mainly dry conditions will persist Wednesday night through
Saturday.
* Temperatures start out slightly above normal Thursday and then
will end up near normal Friday into the early next week.
An upper trough will quickly approach Wednesday night sending a cold
front across the region early Thursday. The northern and southern
streams remain unphased initially, but should quickly phase once the
trough axis is offshore Thursday afternoon and evening. Low pressure
develops off the Middle Atlantic and will pass well south and east
into Thursday night. The low then tracks towards the Maritimes on
Friday. No significant precip is expected with this system, but the
front itself could bring in some light precip. NBM PoPs have
decreased over the last 24 hours with the modeling coming into
better agreement. A slight chance exists for much of the area late
Wednesday night and early Thursday with just a low chance for
eastern Long Island Thursday morning. If any precip develops, it
could be in the form of snow showers/flurries early Thursday
morning. No accumulation is expected at this time. Any lingering
precip after day break Thursday could end up as some light
showers/sprinkles. The upper trough will pass off the New England
coast by Friday morning. High pressure will begin building on Friday
and should remain in control into Saturday.
Attention then turns to the second half of the weekend. While there
is a general agreement on a potential storm system to pass near the
region Saturday night and Sunday, confidence is very low on any
specific impacts including precipitation types, precip amounts, and
winds. The exact timing is uncertain, but appears to occur sometime
Saturday night into Sunday/Sunday night.
The 12z deterministic and ensemble suite includes scenarios that
give the area an all snow event, a mixed precipitation event, or one
that has at least the southern half of the area in plain rain with
potential of wintry precip inland. There are also solutions that
indicate the system passing far enough south that little to no
precip occurs in the CWA. It is important to stress that any of
these solutions are possible, but we cannot say with any confidence
which one will occur. The model guidance is likely to waiver many
times in the next several days as the main southern stream energy is
still over the north central Pacific. The energy looks to reach the
western US Tuesday night into Wednesday. The evolution of the
northern stream over southern Canada is also important to the
outcome from this potential system.
The NBM does indicate a respectable 70 percent chance of measurable
precip (greater than 0.01") during time frame, and about a 50
percent chance of greater than 0.25". Deciding to Cap PoPs off at 50
percent for now given that it is still just under a week out.
Precipitation types will be fine tuned as models converge and
forecast confidence increases.
Ridging may return behind the potential weekend system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak low pressure will continue to pass south and east into
tonight.
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be from the
north at or below 10kt. By Tuesday afternoon, winds may become
more westerly.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Low chance of MVFR or lower in rain/snow showers.
Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt still possible for the AM push.
Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Wind and seas will remain below SCA levels through mid week.
Sub-SCA conditions will continue on the waters Wednesday night.
Developing low pressure offshore will bring stronger winds and
building seas Thursday into Thursday night with SCA conditions
becoming likely. Winds should begin weakening on Friday, but some
lingering 25 kt gusts are possible on the ocean. Seas should subside
below 5 ft by Friday afternoon. Conditions are then expected to be
below SCA levels on Saturday. A storm system may impact the waters
Saturday night into Sunday with potential for Gales. Will continue
to mention this potential in the HWO.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS