000
FXUS61 KOKX 020538
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1238 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the west late tonight into
Tuesday, passing offshore on Wednesday. A cold front will move
across from Wednesday night into Thursday morning as low
pressure passes well offshore. High pressure will build back
over the region on Friday and remain in control into Saturday.
A storm system may impact the area Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track with just some minor adjustments to
temperatures. Clouds continue to clear with just some stratocu
lingering around western Orange County and central Long Island
until around midnight. A shortwave trough aloft will continue
to slowly move to the east overnight, allowing a weak wave of
low pressure to also move east and farther away from the Mid
Atlantic coast. Ridging will begin to build aloft behind the
low, with surface high pressure nosing in from the west.
Under clear skies tonight and light winds, lows will be close to
normal, ranging from the mid 20s inland, to the upper 20s/lower
30s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the departing upper trough, a shortwave ridge and surface
high will build across the area on Tuesday, passing offshore on
Wednesday. Northerly winds will back around to the WNW during
this time, generally at 10 mph or less. Skies will be mainly
clear with some increase in scattered clouds early Wednesday
morning, clearing late morning. Scattered to broken skies
redevelop Wednesday evening ahead of an amplifying upper trough
tracking across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures Tuesday into Tuesday night will be close to normal,
but then warming a few degrees above normal for Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A progressive, yet amplified flow pattern will persist Wednesday
night through the upcoming weekend. The potential exists for a
storm system to impact the area Saturday night into Sunday.
*Key Points*
* Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to signal
a storm system passing near the Mid Atlantic and Northeast
Saturday night into Sunday. It is much too early to get
specific with details on exact track, timing, potential precip
types, precip amounts, and winds.
* Mainly dry conditions will persist Wednesday night through
Saturday.
* Temperatures start out slightly above normal Thursday and then
will end up near normal Friday into the early next week.
An upper trough will quickly approach Wednesday night sending a
cold front across the region early Thursday. The northern and
southern streams remain unphased initially, but should quickly
phase once the trough axis is offshore Thursday afternoon and
evening. Low pressure develops off the Middle Atlantic and will
pass well south and east into Thursday night. The low then
tracks towards the Maritimes on Friday. No significant precip is
expected with this system, but the front itself could bring in
some light precip. NBM PoPs have decreased over the last 24
hours with the modeling coming into better agreement. A slight
chance exists for much of the area late Wednesday night and
early Thursday with just a low chance for eastern Long Island
Thursday morning. If any precip develops, it could be in the
form of snow showers/flurries early Thursday morning. No
accumulation is expected at this time. Any lingering precip
after day break Thursday could end up as some light
showers/sprinkles. The upper trough will pass off the New
England coast by Friday morning. High pressure will begin
building on Friday and should remain in control into Saturday.
Attention then turns to the second half of the weekend. While
there is a general agreement on a potential storm system to
pass near the region Saturday night and Sunday, confidence is
very low on any specific impacts including precipitation types,
precip amounts, and winds. The exact timing is uncertain, but
appears to occur sometime Saturday night into Sunday/Sunday
night.
The 12Z deterministic and ensemble suite includes scenarios that
give the area an all snow event, a mixed precipitation event, or
one that has at least the southern half of the area in plain
rain with potential of wintry precip inland. There are also
solutions that indicate the system passing far enough south that
little to no precip occurs in the CWA. It is important to
stress that any of these solutions are possible, but we cannot
say with any confidence which one will occur. The model guidance
is likely to waiver many times in the next several days as the
main southern stream energy is still over the north central
Pacific. The energy looks to reach the western US Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The evolution of the northern stream over
southern Canada is also important to the outcome from this
potential system.
The NBM does indicate a respectable 70 percent chance of
measurable precip (greater than 0.01") during time frame, and
about a 50 percent chance of greater than 0.25". Capped PoP at
50 percent for now given that this is still just under a week
out. Precipitation types will be fine tuned as models converge
and forecast confidence increases.
Ridging may return behind the potential weekend system.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. Patch of BKN040 cigs near KISP should depart early on, leaving
clear skies for most of the TAF period as high pressure builds from
the west.
NNW winds less than 10 kt should back WNW and increase to at or just
under 10 kt this afternoon, then diminish tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight: VFR.
Thursday: Low chance of MVFR or lower cond in rain/snow
showers.
Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt still possible for the AM push.
Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through Wed night
with a weak pressure gradient in place.
A strengthening pressure gradient between departing low
pressure offshore and high pressure to the west will bring
stronger winds and building seas Thursday into Thursday night
with SCA conditions becoming likely. Winds should begin
weakening on Friday, but some lingering 25 kt gusts are possible
on the ocean. Seas should subside below 5 ft by Friday
afternoon. Conditions are then expected to be below SCA levels
on Saturday.
A storm system may impact the waters Saturday night into
Sunday, with potential for gales. HWO mention of this
potential continues.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS