000
FXUS61 KOKX 020856
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure noses in from the south and west today and passes
offshore on Wednesday. A cold front will move through early Thursday
as low pressure passes well offshore. High pressure starts to build
in Thursday night and remains in control into Saturday. A storm
system impacts the area Saturday night into Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Upper-level trough axis shifts east this morning and surface
low pressure strengthens well offshore. Shortwave ridging starts
to build in aloft and at the surface high pressure noses in
from the south and west. This will lead to a sunny day with
temperatures right around normal for early January, upper 30s
low 40s.

Mid-level ridge axis shifts east tonight ahead of the next
shortwave. High and mid level clouds look to increase late
tonight. Timing of clouds will have a big impact on low
temperatures tonight. Temperatures likely drop quick the first
half of the night and then start to level off under cloud cover.
Used a blend of the NBM and CONSMOS to capture this.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure shifts offshore on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough. A shortwave lifting out of the
southwest CONUS phases with energy dropping down from central
Canada. Associated surface low pressure forms along the Mid-
Atlantic coast on Thursday and strengthens well east of the
area. Meanwhile, a cold front will swing through our area.
Chances in precip associated with the low have lowered even more as
this system has trended farther and farther south and east of
the area. However, there could be some showers with the frontal
passage. This looks to be mostly snow or a rain/snow mix with
temperatures plenty cold enough aloft, except during Thursday
afternoon across Long Island where rain showers are more likely
as the boundary layer warms. Only light QPF is expected and no
accumulation is forecast at this time.

Strong high pressure starts to build in Thursday night behind the
offshore low. There will be a brief period late Thursday through
Thursday night where the area will be in a tight pressure gradient
between the offshore low and building high. Peak northwest
gusts at this time look to reach 25 to 35 mph.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A progressive, yet amplified flow pattern will persist over much of
the long term, from the end of this week through the beginning of
next week. The potential continues for a storm system to impact the
area Saturday night into Sunday.

*Key Points*

* Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to signal a
  storm system passing near the Mid Atlantic and Northeast Saturday
  night into Sunday. It is much too early to get specific with
  details on exact track, timing, potential precip types, precip
  amounts, and winds.

* Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.

* Temperatures near or slightly below normal Friday into the early
  next week.

There continues to be remarkable consensus for the development of a
low pressure system that moves across the Mid-Atlantic coastline
Saturday night and into Sunday among different global models and
their respective ensembles.

Energy embedded in a trough enters the CONUS on Wednesday and
continues to move eastward as it slides into the South Central
Plains by Friday morning. Over the eastern half of the US, a large
surface high pressure system builds under a mid-level ridge which
allows a N flow to advect cooler air into the area. The high
pressure may merge with another approaching high pressure system
north of the area which enhances the cold air advection via
northerly winds. A low pressure is then expected to develop
somewhere over the Southeast US and track in the vicinity of the
Mid-Atlantic.

For now, the system remains consistent in its development
among the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC and fairly consistent in the timing of
impacting the region being Saturday night through Sunday. While PoPs
have been bumped up a bit, any confidence in p-types is still too
low to determine at this time as there remains considerable
uncertainty in its intensity, track, and the extent of antecedent
cold air to determine any p-types at this range. Although the system
remains consistent among models at this time, there are a lot of
different variables that can change the outcome of significantly.

Beyond this system, high pressure builds in on Monday with another
low pressure system possible impacting the area into the beginning
and middle of the following week.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR. Clear skies for most of the TAF period as high pressure builds
from the west.

NNW winds less than 10 kt should back WNW and increase to at or just
under 10 kt this afternoon, then diminish tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Thursday: Low chance of MVFR or lower cond in rain/snow
showers.

Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt still possible for the AM push.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Quiet conditions over the waters through Wednesday night. Winds pick
up late Thursday and peak Thursday night as low pressure passes well
offshore and high pressure builds in from the west. Small Craft
Advisories look likely on all waters Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night with 25 to 30 kt wind gusts. Wind gusts on the ocean
waters may very briefly touch 35 kt. Waves on the ocean waters will
also likely reach 5 to 6 ft.

Winds should begin weakening on Friday, but some lingering 25
kt gusts are possible on the ocean. Seas should subside below 5
ft by Friday afternoon. Conditions are then expected to be below
SCA levels on Saturday.

A storm system may impact the waters Saturday night into
Sunday, with potential for gales. HWO mention of this
potential continues.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW