000
FXUS61 KOKX 022236
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
536 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the Southeast through midweek, sliding
offshore Wednesday night. A cold front moves through Thursday as low
pressure passes well offshore. High pressure starts to build in Thursday
night and remains in control into Saturday. A storm system impacts
the area Saturday night into Sunday with another system for the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mostly on track. Hourly temperatures and
dewpoints were adjusted with this update to match the latest
trends.
Tranquil conditions persist through tonight as shortwave ridging
begins to build in aloft and surface high pressure noses in from the
south and west.
Mostly clear skies prevail through the first half of the night, and
with a light west wind, should allow temperatures to fall back below
NBM guidance. Used a MAV/MET blend to capture this, with forecast
lows ranging from the mid 30s in the urban metro, to the low 20s
across the interior and LI Pine Barrens. The ridge axis shifts east
tonight ahead of the next shortwave, allowing high and mid level
clouds to increase late.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over the Southeast shifts offshore
Wednesday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Associated
surface low pressure forms off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday
and strengthens well east of the area. To the west, a cold
front will swing through our area Thursday, with high pressure
returning behind it.
The fropa appears mostly dry Thursday as the deepening wave of
low pressure tracks well offshore. A few spotty showers will be
possible across eastern areas, mainly the LI forks and SE CT.
Marginal temperatures may allow any precipitation to fall as
snow, or a rain/snow mix, in the morning hours. The boundary
layer likely warms enough by afternoon that any remaining
precipitation would fall as rain. In any case, QPF would be
light, if it occurs at all, perhaps a few hundredths east.
A 1030 mb high begins to build in Thursday night behind the
low. There will be a brief period late Thursday through Thursday
night where a tight pressure gradient between the offshore low
and building high may allow NW gusts to approach 30 mph.
Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms, highs generally
in the low to mid 40s, and lows in 20s and 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*Key Points*
* A coastal storm is expected to impact the area Saturday night into
Sunday. Too early to be specific with potential snow amounts and
precipitation types. Wind and coastal flooding impacts will be
possible as well.
* Another area of low pressure for the middle of next week may bring
wind and flooding impacts.
Deep-layered ridging on Friday will bring dry and sunny conditions
to the area with high temperatures slightly below normal. High
pressure then lingers long enough to keep us dry through at least
Saturday morning.
Deterministic and ensemble global guidance continue to agree on an
area of low pressure that will likely be close enough to us to bring
impacts. At this time, there`s still upwards of a 300 mile spread in
the track of the storm, but there`s growing confidence that the
storm center would pass to our SE, perhaps near the 40N/70W
benchmark during Sunday morning. Sensitivity appears to lie in
shortwave energy ejecting downstream from an Aleutians low, then
rotating around a southern US upper low. This interaction might take
another day or two to become better-resolved by the RAOB network.
Enough confidence at this point to go with categorical PoPs for
Saturday night, but precip may begin by the end of Saturday
afternoon. Most of the precip is likely done by the middle of
Sunday morning. Too early to get overly specific with precip types
and accumulations, but with that said, there`s a moderate
probability of at least a plowable snow occurring across interior
areas with a lower (but growing) probability at the coast. As for
winds, there`s the potential of marginal advisory-level winds for
coastal areas during Saturday night. There may also be minor
coastal/shoreline impacts, including scattered dune erosion.
Another area of low pressure is then progged to pass through the
eastern Great Lakes Region on Tuesday with perhaps a secondary or
triple-point low passing passing nearby here later on. Main threats
with this storm would be strong winds (with a tighter pressure
gradient and stronger low level jet this time around), and
freshwater flooding. Flooding threat would be greatest over the
interior sections where, even outside of the amount of rain that
falls, an existing snowpack may be present and rapidly melt on top
of already-saturated soils.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pres remains centered S of the region thru 00Z Thu.
VFR thru tngt with mainly SKC. Some low clouds attempt to build in
from the W on Wed. For now, SCT was used in the TAFs except for SWF
where there is the highest prob of a CIG. There is the potential for
all or most of the area to go MVFR on Wed.
A general WNW flow aob 11kt is expected thru the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected thru 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Rest of Wednesday: MVFR possible.
Thursday: Low chance of MVFR or lower cond in rain/snow showers.
Thursday night: Mainly VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt possible for the AM push.
Saturday: VFR becoming IFR or lower Sat ngt in snow and/or rain.
Increasing E/NE winds.
Sunday: Rain/snow ending as snow. IFR or lower possible. Winds
becoming N.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions over the waters through Wednesday night. Winds
increase late Thursday as low pressure passes well offshore and
high pressure builds in from the west. Small Craft Advisories
look likely on all waters Thursday afternoon through Thursday
night with 25 to 30 kt wind gusts. Wind gusts on the ocean
waters may briefly approach or exceed 35 kt. Ocean seas will
also likely reach 5 to 6 ft.
Winds should begin weakening on Friday, but some lingering 25 kt
gusts are possible on the ocean. Seas should subside below 5 ft by
Friday afternoon. Conditions are then expected to be below SCA
levels on Saturday.
A storm system impacting the waters Saturday night into Sunday will
bring a chance of gales across all waters during the this period.
HWO mention of this potential continues. Ocean seas during this time
will probably build over 10 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A liquid-equivalent 0.75 to 1.50 inches of precipitation is
anticipated from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
Since some of this may be in the form of snow, impacts may be
minimal.
A greater flooding threat (especially rivers) may exist starting
next Tuesday. This will partially depend on what materializes this
weekend. Regardless, soils will remain nearly saturated leading up
to the event.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR