000
FXUS61 KOKX 031450
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
950 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure south of the area shifts offshore tonight with a
weak frontal system moving through on Thursday. High pressure
starts to build in Thursday night and remains in control into
Saturday morning. A storm system impacts the area Saturday
evening through Sunday. High pressure builds in to start next
week, followed by another storm system for the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increased cloud cover inland through this afternoon as surface
trough and associated cold front slowly approach to the
northwest. Otherwise only made updates for current conditions.
Dry and cool conditions are expected to continue today with
high pressure positioned south of the area gradually sliding
offshore during the day. Highs today will be around average with
temperatures in the low to middle 40s.
Mid-level troughing associated with the cold front will force a
weak wave of low pressure to develop to the south of the area.
This may result in the development of some light snow showers
late in the night, mainly along the coast, though dry low levels
may prevent any precipitation from reaching the surface. Lows
tonight will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weak low pressure system to the south continues to shift
offshore during the day on Thursday with any light showers
along the coast dissipating by early afternoon. There may be
some additional light rain or snow showers with the FROPA during
the morning and early afternoon on Thursday, though there is
only a slight chance.
The mid-level troughing pushes the front and low pressure
offshore by Thursday night with a strong 1030 high pressure
building into the area from the west. The tight pressure
gradient between the departing low and the approaching high will
bring breezy conditions Thursday evening and into the first
half of the overnight with NW winds 10-20 mph with gusts upwards
of 30 mph along the coast. Gusts diminish by Friday morning
with mostly clear skies and cold conditions with highs only in
the middle to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*Key Points*
* A coastal storm is expected to impact the area Saturday
evening through Sunday. Too early to be specific with
potential snow amounts and precipitation types. Wind and
coastal flooding impacts will be possible as well.
* Another area of low pressure for the middle of next week may
bring wind and flooding impacts.
There has not been much change from the previous forecast. Quiet
weather is expected Friday night through early Saturday as high
pressure remains in control as it shifts offshore.
Attention then turns to the first of two strong systems to
impact the area in the long term. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance continue to be in agreement on an area of low pressure
passing close enough to our south and east to bring impacts this
weekend. Differences still exist in exact center track which is
expected this far out. This will impact what precip types are
seen across the area. The latest ECMWF and Canadian have the low
tracking right near the 40N/70W benchmark, with the GFS quite a
bit farther south and east. The trend in the ECMWF Ensemble and
the GEFS has been slightly farther southeast, with the GEPS
actually trending slightly closer to the coast. With this event
still several days away, small wobbles in model tracks will
continue run to run. Something to note though is the weakening
trend in the GFS. This has to do with the shortwave lifting out
of the southwest CONUS becoming almost flat by the time it
reaches the northeast. This can be blamed on the interaction
with a piece of energy behind the trough moving into the
northwest CONUS Thursday night. This trend is something that
needs to be watched over the next few days and would lead to
less impacts. As mentioned, it is too early to talk specific
precip types, but confidence in accumulating snow is highest
across the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT given a blend of
current model tracks. The Weather Prediction Center has a 50 to
70% chance of these areas exceeding .25 inches of liquid
equivalent of snow/sleet. This lowers to about 10 to 30% for the
NYC/NJ metro area and Long Island. Winds with this system could
briefly touch advisory level, mainly across Long Island. There
may also be minor coastal/shoreline impacts, including scattered
dune erosion.
There is another area of low pressure that will impact the area
in the long term during the middle of next week. There
continues to be very good agreement with the guidance with this
system as well, especially for being this far out. A closed
upper level low and associated surface low will lift from the
southern CONUS and track west of the area. The main concerns
with this system at this time are the strong winds and heavy
rain. The area could potentially be in between roughly a ~980mb
low and ~1034mb high. This very tight pressure gradient brings
the potential for strong winds. This system also brings plenty
of moisture with it and the potential for heavy rain. The
flooding threat would be greatest over the interior sections
where, even outside of the amount of rain that falls, an
existing snowpack may be present and rapidly melt on top of
already- saturated soils. The LREF currently has a an 85% chance
across the whole area of seeing greater than 1 inch of rain in
any 24 hour period with this storm and a 25 to 40% chance of
seeing greater than 2 inches.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered S of the region shifts offshore today. A
cold front tracks through late Thursday morning.
Mainly VFR through the day. Uncertainty remains around the
coverage and duration of any MVFR cigs for this evening and
overnight.
WNW winds less than 10 kt shift to a more W/WSW wind this
afternoon before decreasing to around 5 kt tonight. This
persists until the frontal passage Thursday morning when winds
increase to 10-15 kt G20-25 kt and shift to the NW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected through this afternoon.
Amendments may be needed late this afternoon and evening for
brief MVFR ceilings.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in any -RA/-SN showers
early, improving to VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Thursday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20kt possible for the AM push.
Saturday: VFR becoming IFR or lower Sat ngt in snow and/or rain.
Increasing E/NE winds.
Sunday: Rain/snow ending as snow. IFR or lower possible. Winds
becoming N.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions over the waters through Thursday afternoon.
Winds increase late Thursday as low pressure passes well
offshore and high pressure builds in from the west. Small Craft
Advisories look likely on all waters Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night with 25 to 30 kt wind gusts. Wind gusts on the
ocean waters may briefly approach or exceed 35 kt. Ocean seas
will also likely reach 5 to 6 ft.
Winds should begin weakening on Friday, but some lingering 25 kt
gusts are possible on the ocean. Seas should subside below 5
ft by Friday afternoon. Conditions are then expected to be below
SCA levels on Saturday.
A storm system impacting the waters Saturday evening through
Sunday will bring a chance of gales across all waters during
the this period. HWO mention of this potential continues. Ocean
seas during this time could reach 10 ft. After the system moves
east, 5 ft waves could linger on the ocean waters through
Monday.
Another storm system is expected during the middle of next week.
This also has the potential to bring gales to the waters and
possibly even storm force gusts to the ocean waters. It is too
far out in time and confidence is too low for a mention in the
HWO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.
A liquid-equivalent 0.75 to 1.50 inches of precipitation is
anticipated from Saturday evening through Sunday. Since some of
this may be in the form of snow, impacts may be minimal.
A greater flooding threat (especially rivers) may exist starting
next Tuesday. This will partially depend on what materializes this
weekend. Regardless, soils will remain nearly saturated leading up
to the event.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/JT/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DR/MW
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW