000
FXUS61 KOKX 042056
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the west tonight through Friday
morning. The high remains into late Friday before drifting
offshore toward Saturday morning. Low pressure will pass south
and east of the region late Saturday into Sunday, bringing rain
and snow to the region. A deep low will track west of the area
late Tuesday into Wednesday, and be capable of producing heavy
rain and high winds.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Strong high pressure builds in from the west tonight as the
upper trough axis moves off shore early this evening. Strong and
gusty winds will continue, especially through this evening, as
weak cold advection continues with good low level mixing. Skies
clear quickly this evening as the atmospheric column drys.
Temperatures may fall off a little more slowly than forecast
this evening as gusty winds remain. Then with diminishing winds
temperatures fall off more quickly late tonight. Overnight low
will be near to slightly lower than seasonal normals.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The surface high builds over the region through Friday then
remains centered just to the south of the area Friday night.
Meanwhile. the upper flow remains progressive as a building
ridge to the west moves across the northeast and mid-Atlantic
Friday and Friday night. Temperatures remain near seasonal
normals Friday and Friday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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There remains considerable uncertainty with the exact details
of the weekend storm. The modeling has trended S of the 00Z
solns, and with the ensemble means remaining generally S of the
operational runs, the forecast has been nudged a but colder for
the coasts. A significant change was not made attm, with the
blended data still very warm in the llvls based on ely component
flow.

As the high res NAM and other mesoscale models begin capture the
sys, the expectation is that the llvl temp guidance will cool a bit.
Winds could end up backing further than currently indicated as the
coastal front takes shape. This is all predicated on a more sly
track of the sys however. A more nly track will keep the ely flow
locked in at the coasts, as well as introduce a warm layer aloft
that will result in mixing even across the interior.

The interior still looks on track however to receive some hvy
accumulating snow, absent a significant nwd or swd deviation of the
mean track. That being the case, a Winter Storm Watch has been
issued for Sat ngt and Sun. The bulk of the activity is Sat ngt into
Sun, but with timing differences and evolution of the back edge of
pcpn in play, the watch goes thru the day.

Some of the modeling has once again indicated deepening of the low
into the 980s. The 12Z GFS has it at 985 S of Montauk at 18Z Sun.
That is on the strong side compared to the individual GEFS members as
well as the ECMWF. The blended numbers of CONSALL was used, which
brings winds close to advy lvls late Sat ngt into Sun primarily for
ern portions of LI.

Quiet wx Mon, then the next sys is still on track for Tue ngt and
Wed.

The Tues ngt sys has trended a little E and a little weaker in the
GFS. The ECMWF is still holding course with a 970s low passing near
Detroit Tue ngt. The ensembles all give high confidence in the track
this far out however. High winds and hvy rain seem likely, with
robust moisture transport vectors from the subtropics. Some fzra at
the onset possible across the interior.

The area dries out late Wed thru Thu behind the storm.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period as high pressure builds towards the
region into Friday.

NW winds generally 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt into early this
evening. Sustained winds and gusts will weaken after 00z with
gusts likely ending overnight into early Friday morning. NW flow
around 10 kt will continue after 12z before backing towards the
W-WNW in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few peak gusts around 30 kt are possible through 00z.

Gusts may become occasional after 06z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Afternoon-Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR early, then MVFR or lower late. Chance
rain/snow late afternoon.

Saturday Night: IFR or lower. Snow inland with a rain/snow mix
closer to the coast. NYC metro and coast could be mainly rain. NE
winds 15-20kt gusting 25-35 kt.

Sunday: IFR or lower with snow inland and rain/snow mix near coast.
NYC metro and coast may end as snow late morning and early
afternoon. Winds becoming N 10-15 kt gusting 20-30 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR early becoming MVFR or lower. Rain in the afternoon at
the coast with rain/snow mix inland in the afternoon. E winds 15-20
kt with gusts 25-30 kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A strong pressure gradient remains across the forecast waters
into late tonight as high pressure builds to the west and
deepening low pressure moves through the Canadian Maritimes.
With cold air moving in behind a weak cold front, wind gusts
across the waters will remain at SCA levels through most of
tonight. The highest gusts are expected through this evening,
with occasional gusts up to 30kt. With cold advection weakening
and the high moving into the waters winds and gusts will
diminish rather quickly. A SCA remains in effect for all the
waters through tonight.

With high pressure over the waters Friday into Friday night
winds and seas will remain below advisory levels.

Gales are possible Sat ngt and Sun, especially on the ocean, as
low pres tracks near or E of the waters. Winds and seas subside
Sun ngt and Mon. Gale to storm force winds are possible late
Tue into Wed as deep low pres tracks W of the region.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected thru this weekend. Hydrologic
impacts, including river flooding, are possible late Tue into Wed
with deep low pres passing W of the area. Rainfall in excess of 2
inches is possible.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding is possible, mainly for the Western LI Sound
and South Shore Bays, during the Sunday morning high tide cycles.
There is also potential for scattered dune erosion.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...